Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Ridgeville, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Today will be the start of another active week of weather as a warm front brings widespread rain this morning. Current Infrared satellite and water vapor loops show a deepening mid/upper trough over the Rockies and Plains, and that will eventually reach the Great Lakes and bring arctic air by mid to late week, but first the trough is picking up a southern stream shortwave which is ejecting through the Ohio Valley this morning. This feature and an associated 90-100 knot H3 jet streak is leading to enhanced warm air advection and isentropic ascent where a 30-40 knot low-level jet is interacting with a warm front lifting northeastward. This is leading to an area of steady rain that will progress E/NE across the region this morning. Current radar shows showers already into NE Ohio, with steady rain west of I-77. The warm front, currently positioned along the I-75 corridor in western Ohio, will lift NE of the region by early afternoon, and that will take most of the rain out of the area by 18Z except for showers lingering in NW PA through mid afternoon.
However, forecast soundings show abundant low-level moisture lingering in the warm sector beneath mid-level drying and subsidence behind the warm front, so expect there to be pretty widespread mist and drizzle through the afternoon. Rainfall today looks to average 0.25 to 0.60 inches.

As the upstream mid/upper trough significantly digs through the Plains later today through Tuesday, the associated surface low will lift from northern Minnesota into the vicinity of James Bay while weakening as it separates from the jet dynamics. This will pull the trailing cold front into western Ohio by this afternoon and evening. The front will stall in eastern Ohio tonight due to the strongly amplifying trough to the west. This will keep a few showers over eastern Ohio this evening through tonight, but most areas will stay dry as drier air works in behind the front, and this will allow for some clearing of the clouds in NW and north central Ohio. Introduced some fog tonight given the breaks in the clouds and wet ground.

For Tuesday, the huge mid/upper trough starting to swing into the Great Lakes will place a belt of 150-170 knot H3 flow across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and this will lead to surface cyclogenesis along the stalled frontal boundary. Guidance is in agreement on a weak surface low developing over the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians Tuesday then lifting across western PA, reaching central NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region by Wednesday morning. This will spread light rain back into the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, with the steadiest rain and greatest amounts east of the I-77 corridor where an additional 0.25 inch could fall. This rain combined with snowmelt and the rain from Monday morning could cause minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas in extreme NE Ohio and NW PA.

Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s today will cool into the mid/upper 40s Tuesday. Lows tonight will stay mild in the upper 30s to low 40s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The short term forecast period remains active as an upper level trough approaches the eastern CONUS Tuesday night. At the surface, low pressure rides along the spine of the Appalachians and eventually north into Ontario by Wednesday. Synoptic precipitation will eventually switch from rain to a rain/snow mix Tuesday night and mostly snow by Wednesday as temperatures cool slightly behind a weak cold front.

Synoptic snow transitions to lake effect snow Wednesday night as a strong cold front crosses eastward and the aforementioned upper trough lifts north. Mean layer southwesterly to westerly flow will begin to reorganize across Lake Erie Wednesday night as 850mb temperatures drop to the -12C to -18C range. Lake effect snow will gradually taper off through Thursday night as low level ridging will turn winds southerly and introduce a drier air mass.

In terms of lake effect snow and potential impacts, recent guidance has favored more of the southwesterly than pure westerly mean layer flow across Lake Erie. NBM probabilities continue to indicate high confidence of at least 6 inches of snowfall for lakeshore sites across the primary snowbelt. However, with the mean layer flow favoring a southerly component, the heaviest snowfall looks to occur offshore Lake Erie and thus storm total snowfall amounts have been reduced generally to 6-10 inches with highest amounts occurring across extreme eastern Erie County PA.

Outside of snow amounts, strong winds and gusts will return areawide behind the cold front Wednesday night and Thursday. Wind gusts generally between 25 and 35 MPH will be possible. Blowing snow cannot be ruled out across the snowbelt given the higher wind gusts and drier snow (20:1 snow ratio).

Temperatures fall below freezing for much of the forecast area Tuesday night behind the weak cold front. High temperatures by Wednesday rise into the mid to upper 30s east of I-71 and low to mid 30s west of I-71. Stronger cold front crosses east Wednesday night into Thursday which will drop overnight lows Wednesday and Thursday night into the teens areawide. Elevated westerly wind gusts will lead to wind chill values early Thursday morning in the single digits to below zero in spots. Much cooler highs on Thursday in the upper teens to lower 20s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Surface high pressure and low level ridging will continue to build north while introducing a drier and warmer airmass by Friday.
However, single digit wind chill values remain possible early Friday morning. Another chance for rain and/or snow showers arrives by Saturday as an upper trough and surface low pressure system lift east into the Great Lakes region.

Last cool day of the long term on Friday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. High temperatures this weekend will rise into the mid 40s areawide with overnight lows in the mid 30s.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
Rain will spread across the region from west to east early this morning. This will cause all terminals to fall to MVFR at first followed by IFR an hour or two after the onset. The rain will end from west to east mid morning through early afternoon as the warm front lifts NE of the region, but occasional drizzle and IFR will linger until this evening at KCLE, KCAK, KMFD, KYNG, and KERI. NW Ohio around KTOL and KFDY should clear out to VFR this evening, but the lower cigs will persist farther east.

S to SW winds of 5-10 knots early this morning will increase to 10-15 knots and turn WSW this afternoon with occasional gusts of 20-25 knots before decreasing this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected late Monday through Tuesday in low ceilings/rain. More non-VFR expected in post cold frontal snow/lake effect snow in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Wednesday through Thursday and possibly into Friday.

MARINE
Quiet marine conditions will persist through mid-week with southwesterly to westerly flow between 10-15 knots gradually veering northwesterly late Tuesday. By Wednesday, a deep upper level trough and strong cold front approach the region leading to increased westerly winds through early Friday. There remains the potential for gale force winds, especially behind the cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. At a minimum, small craft advisories will be needed mid-week into Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.