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LEZ142 Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- 936 Pm Edt Fri Sep 22 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon...
Overnight..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 70 degrees, off cleveland 71 degrees, and off erie 72 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 230545 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 145 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
Tropical Storm Ophelia will track up the Mid Atlantic coast well to our east through Sunday while high pressure centered over Ontario and Quebec persists through early next week. A low pressure trough may swing through the area mid-week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
12:30 AM Update...

Quiet weather will continue overnight as abundant subsidence continues between Tropical Storm Ophelia moving into North Carolina and broad high pressure holding strong over Ontario and Quebec. This will keep mostly clear skies in place other than some high cirrus over far eastern Ohio and western PA. No changes were needed.

9:30 PM Update...
Only made some minor temperature and sky adjustments through the near term period to account for latest model guidance. Most model guidance has backed off on the fog potential, so reduced amount of fog mention in the forecast with this update.

Previous Discussion...
The local area will experience a squeeze play of sorts between high pressure centered to our north over southern Canada and Tropical Storm Ophelia tracking up into the Mid Atlantic through Saturday night. The resulting weather will be on the quiet side, though east-northeast breezes will be noticeable on Saturday with gusts ramping up to 15-25 MPH in the afternoon, strongest near Lake Erie where a few gusts as high as 30 MPH are possible.
A mainly clear and seasonable night is in store tonight with lows ranging from the mid 40s to the mid 50s, warmest near Lake Erie and coolest in more rural valleys or sheltered areas. Some patchy fog can't be ruled out tonight, mainly in river valleys, but with some dry air advection and modest breezes for most of the night it shouldn't get more widespread than that. Highs on Saturday will be several clicks cooler than today, generally in the low to mid 70s. There will be more high-level clouds on Saturday and they may become thick enough to turn fairly opaque later in the day from far eastern OH into PA. Saturday night looks to be a few degrees warmer than tonight across the board, as there's improved agreement that there will be a fair amount of higher clouds at the least, particularly from eastern OH into PA. The gradient will also be tighter, so winds will have a harder time dropping off. This forecast update has most locations staying up in the 50s for lows Saturday night.

Do not have any mentionable POPs through Saturday night at this point. Am confident in that through most of Saturday afternoon.
Later Saturday afternoon or early evening will bring an initial push of mid-level moisture advection on the fringe of Ophelia as far west as far eastern OH. The expectation is for modest forcing and dry low levels to cause any rain with this initial increase in mid-level moisture to dry out before it reaches our area late Saturday, though this will be worth watching. Another push of deeper moisture may near from the east/southeast towards dawn Sunday. With all of this said, even if we do end up needing to add POPs to our eastern counties for either timeframe in future updates the QPF will be quite light.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Strong surface high pressure over Hudson Bay and Quebec will continue to be the dominant feature influencing our weather to start the short term. Cloud cover will be on the increase from west to east on Sunday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia move into Maryland. The majority of the rainfall with this system will be well east of our forecast area but can not rule out a few sprinkles or light showers from Youngstown into NW Pennsylvania on Sunday. The GFS is a little more moist than the NAM but will have to contend with continued dry northeasterly flow at the surface. As Ophelia moves north through the Mid-Atlantic region, we will maintain a brisk northeasterly flow off Lake Erie with a tightening surface pressure gradient between the remnant tropical system and high pressure to the north. Temperatures trend cooler with areas east of Interstate 71 primarily in the 60s. A thickening cloud field continues right into Monday as easterly flow in the low and mid- levels advects moisture west across the area. Have kept the daytime dry during the day on Monday with this cycle with a general lack of forcing between the remnant low to the east and trough moving into the western Great Lakes but may need to consider bringing a chance of rain in a little sooner based on timing of energy with the next system.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Trough over the Upper Midwest will open and drift southeast through the Ohio Valley through much of the extended as a blocking upper level ridge remains across eastern Canada. This will result in a persistent pattern of clouds and possible showers with temperatures running slightly below normal. Best chances of rain will likely fall in the Tuesday to Wednesday window as an inverted surface trough nudges up into the Tennessee Valley but with discrepancies between models could linger into Thursday. Raised pops slightly with this forecast package but will wait to go much higher until we can work out some of the details in timing. Clouds will limit the diurnal range with highs generally in the upper 60s and lows in the 50s.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
VFR will continue through the TAF cycle as high pressure remains in control. The only issue is winds. ENE winds on the west edge of Tropical Storm Ophelia will increase to 10-15 knots by late morning with gusts of 15-20 knots this afternoon. The most persistent gusts will occur at TOL, CLE, and ERI where 20-25 knot gusts are possible, but stayed a little conservative in the TAFs. The gusts will gradually subside around sunset this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated showers for far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Sunday night. Isolated to scattered rain showers possible areawide Tuesday through Wednesday.

MARINE
9:30 PM Update...
Confidence has increased in strong winds and waves, so have issued Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements for late Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon/evening.

Previous Discussion...
Easterly winds will increase on Lake Erie to 10-20 knots this evening as the gradient tightens between high pressure over New England and broad low pressure moving into the Midwest. Winds will become more southeasterly overnight, then increase out of the northeast again on Saturday in response to a potential tropical system developing over the coast and moving into the Carolinas.
Winds have trended upward over the weekend, reaching 15-25 knots Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Waves are forecast to reach the 3- 7 foot range by mid to late afternoon on Saturday and Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards will be needed east of the Islands, given the onshore flow component.

Winds will tend to decrease Sunday night into Monday but remain choppy, especially across the Central basin given the continued east to northeast wind. This wind direction will continue through much of next week as high pressure remains anchored over eastern Canada. An area of low pressure is expected to move through the Tennessee Valley mid-week and could result in another window of enhanced winds.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM EDT this morning through Sunday afternoon for OHZ003-007.
Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM EDT this morning through Sunday evening for OHZ009>012.
Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM EDT this morning through Sunday evening for OHZ089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM EDT this morning through Sunday evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ144>147.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ148-149.

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