Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vermilion, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Virga is overspreading northern Ohio from the west on radar early this afternoon, with snow expected to begin reaching the ground along the I-75 corridor around 3 PM before spreading east into the rest of this area this evening and tonight. Aside from a slight decrease in forecast snowfall (talking all of few tenths of an inch lower in general) outside of Northwest Ohio, there's been no notable change to the general forecast, impacts, or headlines with this forecast cycle.
Temperatures are generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s early this afternoon with dew points in the 10s, suggesting temperatures will be near freezing when snow arrives over the next several hours and quickly dip a few degrees due to wet bulbing. A slow warming trend then arrives later this evening into the overnight. Air and ground temperatures will support snow accumulations on roadways pretty quickly once steadier snow pushes in.

A look at various water vapor, satellite, radar and observational data depicts a flat but fairly potent/classic, negatively tilted shortwave trough and associated maturing mid-latitude cyclone moving through the mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon, with the whole system expected to slide east-northeast into the southern Great Lakes tonight into Sunday. To the west, the steadiest and heaviest snow is occurring from northern IL into northern/central IN, on the nose of the stronger low to mid-level (i.e. 850 to 600mb) jet and warm advection. In this area, good isentropic upglide along with some pockets of low-mid level frontogenesis are leading to moderate to strong lift, with some of this lift intersecting the dendritic growth zone. This has led to a fairly solid shield of moderate to locally heavy snow (with some embedded banded snow) in this area. As the system lifts east-northeast, this zone of lift will spread across western and northern portions of our forecast area late this afternoon through this evening, bringing an initial period of snow and likely the heaviest and most efficient snow of the event, especially across Northwest Ohio. Increasingly dry low-levels and more separation from the responsible shortwave and low pressure will lead to snow potential with this initial band this evening becoming more questionable farther east and southeast towards the Mt Vernon - Canton - Youngstown corridor. Once this initial band of lift and snow pushes northeast and out of the area into the overnight snow will continue amid general warm air advection ahead of the approaching mid-latitude cyclone, though mid-level moisture and lift will decrease in this regime, leading to a lower ratio/less efficient snow and generally lighter precipitation rates. Some breaks in the snow are likely late tonight into Sunday morning as the dry slot spreads in, though a band of precip is expected to swing west to east across the area Sunday morning along the system's trailing cold front.

Because the initial band of fluffier snow this evening will generally be weaker with eastern/southeastern extend across our forecast area, and because the snow the remainder of the event will be lower ratio and lighter (as surface temperatures also climb towards and above freezing from south-southwest to north-northeast between 1 AM and 8 AM), lowered snow amounts just slightly across most of our forecast area outside of Northwest Ohio. In Northwest Ohio, hi-res and regional models depict a few hours of potentially heavy snow as the initial band of mid-level lift pushes through this evening, primarily between 6 PM and 10 PM. Based on modeled QPF rates and forecast soundings showing moderate to strong lift briefly maximizing in the dendritic growth zone, snow rates of 1 to 1.5" per hour remain likely for at least a brief window in the Toledo area, potentially impacting surrounding counties such as Wood, Ottawa and Sandusky as well. Rates will gradually become less impressive to the southeast, though may briefly reach 0.5" per hour with the initial east-northeast moving band of snow as far southeast as roughly a Mt Gilead-Akron-Warren type line. Snow rates overnight tonight into early Sunday will mainly be less than 0.5" per hour, though precipitation will take on a bit of a convective component late tonight into Sunday morning ahead of the cold front so some briefer bursts of modestly higher rates are not impossible. Warm air aloft will tickle locations south of a Marion- Warren line late tonight into early Sunday, which may allow just a bit of sleet to mix in. Surface temperatures will also be warming by then and any sleet looks brief, so it shouldn't be too impactful and did not include in the forecast. Snow will likely mix with some "plain rain" Sunday morning ahead of the cold front as surface temperatures briefly spike into the mid-upper 30s, especially outside of the Toledo area and outside of the higher terrain in Northeast OH/Northwest PA, before cold air advection kicks in behind the cold front, leading to steady or slowly falling temperatures through the afternoon.

Total snow amounts through Sunday morning of 5-7" remain for Lucas County, with 3-5" across the rest of the Winter Weather Advisory area across Northwest Ohio. A note, Toledo Express Airport has not recorded a 4"+ snow since January 25, 2023 or a 6"+ snow since February 2-3, 2022. The period of heavy rates expected this evening will lead to very difficult travel conditions in the Toledo area. This may be a bit of a shock to the system for residents there after lacking a 4"+ snowfall the last two winters, even if it's a struggle to quite get to the technical 6" warning criteria in Lucas County.
Elsewhere, amounts of 1-3" are in the forecast farther east/southeast, highest in the higher terrain of the snowbelt and diminishing to near or slightly under 1" towards Mt Vernon, Canton and Youngstown.
Anywhere across the area can experience some slick spots when snow comes down and potentially accumulates on area roadways tonight.

After a relative dry break behind the cold front later Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon, a secondary surface trough and vort max will cross Sunday evening. This may bring a few flurries or snow showers area-wide, with some lake enhancement bringing locally up to a couple inches in the higher terrain of the primary snowbelt. While an overall light amount of precip/snow, this could lead to slick conditions as air temperatures fall below freezing and into the 20s Sunday evening and night. Lows by Monday morning will range from the upper 20s in Northwest and Central Ohio to the mid 20s near Lake Erie.

Wind gusts will increase out of the south late tonight into Sunday morning, with a brief push of strong west-southwest winds along and just behind the cold front Sunday morning into the afternoon. In general, 30-40 MPH gust wording will handle this. Downslope winds in Erie County PA may briefly exceed 40 MPH early Sunday morning. The strong push of winds along and just behind the cold front may also briefly exceed 40 MPH across Northwest Ohio and then near the Lake Erie shoreline farther east. For now no Wind Advisories are behind issued, though will need to monitor the eastern lakeshore forecast zones in particular for marginal Wind Advisory potential, mainly just behind the cold front. A brief window of blowing snow is possible late tonight as wind gusts increase and before the period of above- freezing temperatures makes the snow on the ground less blowable.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure slides through on Monday, leading to a brief period of dry and quiet weather with high temperatures remaining colder than average in the low to mid 30s.

The next system will bring some snow to the area overnight Monday night into Tuesday, with some minor lake effect lingering into Tuesday night across the snowbelt. While the amount of snow accumulation is somewhat uncertain (but more likely on the lighter side), there is increasing confidence (70-80%) in much of the area seeing measurable snow. This snow will largely hit Monday night into early Tuesday with air and ground temperatures expected to be well-below freezing. This will lead to a likelihood of snow accumulation on roadways (especially those that aren't treated) and potential impacts to the Tuesday morning commute, even if we only see a light overall accumulation.

A trough will eject out into the Plains Sunday night into Monday, with two shortwaves expected to phase over the Midwest Monday into Monday evening within this trough. This will allow the trough to gradually sharpen as it lifts east-northeast across the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes Monday night into early Tuesday, with some interaction also expected between the trough and the sub-tropical jet stream by Tuesday. Disagreement among guidance lies both in how well the two shortwaves phase over the Midwest on Monday and in how much interaction occurs between our trough and the sub-tropical jet late Monday night into Tuesday. The ECMWF remains generally less phased overall, depicting a more progressive system with lighter QPF/snow in our forecast area. The NAM is the most aggressive all around, and does not have much support from other global models or ensembles. The GFS and CMC offer more of a middle ground, with somewhat more interaction with the sub-tropical jet late Monday night into Tuesday across the area. The difference between these solutions would be a light, sub- advisory (likely 2 inches or less for most) from the unphased ECMWF idea to a solid accumulating snow (perhaps 2 to 4 inches for most) if a GFS/CMC like middle ground pans out. The NAM offers potential for more snow, potentially 6"+, but only a couple of ensemble members depict similar situations with that amount of snow above the 90th percentile of the current envelope. In general, have seen the European and its ensemble trend slightly more amplified in recent runs while the NAM (and to a lesser extent the GFS) trend a bit flatter. It seems like models are trying to converge towards the middle ground solution, though further time to trend remains.

The take-home message at this point is that odds of an accumulating snow that has some travel impacts overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning are increasing. Confidence in exact amounts remains lower, though odds for over 1" across the area per latest NBM guidance are 60-80% (slightly lower north/higher south) with odds for over 4" generally 20-40%, highest south/east. Some potential for advisories is on the table if we trend towards the somewhat snowier solution.

Lows Monday night will generally be in the mid 20s, with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 30s. Lows Tuesday night will range from the mid-upper 10s across most inland locales to the mid 20s near the eastern lakeshore.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The next cold front crosses Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing potential for a few snow showers area-wide followed by some lake effect amid west-northwest winds to the snowbelt. This looks like a quick hit, with high pressure quickly building in Thursday night.
However, 850mb temperatures briefly falling to -15C to -17C (per the ECMWF and CMC) could allow for a relatively short window of somewhat impactful, fluffy lake effect. The next system approaches from the west to end the week, but significant uncertainty is present on model guidance regarding both the progression east of that trough and how cold it remains ahead of it over the eastern/northeastern U.S.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/
Aloft, SW'erly flow persists over northern OH and NW PA as ridging exits E'ward and troughing overspreads our region from the west through 18Z/Sun. At the surface, a low strengthens as it moves NE'ward from near the KS/MO border to near Georgian Bay from 18Z/Sat to 18Z/Sun. This low track should allow an occluded front to sweep E'ward through our area between ~12Z/Sun and ~18Z/Sun. Weak ridging is expected ahead of and behind the front. Our regional surface winds trend SE'erly to S'erly around 5 to 15 knots ahead of the occluded front. These winds should gust up to 20 to 25 knots at times this evening into early Sun morning. Behind the front, SW'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots, gusting up to 25 to 35 knots, are expected through 18Z/Sun.

Widespread ceilings are expected through the TAF period and will trend VFR prior to the arrival of precip associated with the aforementioned low pressure system. In addition, VFR visibility is expected before and after precip. Widespread snow, steady to heavy at times, should overspread our region gradually and generally from west to east between ~20Z/Sat and ~05Z/Sun. Once snow begins, primarily MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected and visibility will vary between MVFR and LIFR. Snow should mix with rain and generally from west to east between ~09Z/Sun and ~14Z/Sun. The rain/snow mix should end from west to east between ~13Z/Sun and ~18Z/Sun. Widespread MVFR ceilings should linger behind the precip.

Outlook...Non-VFR with periodic precip, mainly in the form of snow, are expected Sunday afternoon through this Thursday.

MARINE
Hazardous marine conditions will return to Lake Erie tonight as strong low pressure lifts northeast into the central Great Lakes.
Offshore winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots tonight with southwest winds developing and increasing to 30 to 35+ knots in the open waters of the western basin and both the open waters and nearshore zones east of the Lake Erie islands Sunday morning through Sunday evening. Winds may briefly approach 40 knots in the open waters of the eastern and central basins. Small Craft Advisories have been hoisted ahead of the stronger winds this evening into tonight with Gale Watches in effect Sunday morning into Sunday night (late Sunday afternoon in the western basin). A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from Willowick east to Ripley, NY until 12Z/7 AM this morning, however a Small Craft Advisory for the next round of strong winds will be issued upon these zones upon expiration. Water levels will drop in the western basin of Lake Erie as gales develop on Sunday and a Low Water Advisory will likely be needed in a subsequent update. Northwest winds should diminish pretty quickly Monday morning and winds will gradually become light and shift offshore by Monday afternoon.

Southwest winds to around 5 to 10 knots will likely develop late Monday into Tuesday with northwest winds to 10 to 15 knots anticipated behind weak low pressure Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Winds will increase in response to an approaching cold front during the day Wednesday and marine headlines will likely be needed at some point Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for OHZ003.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for OHZ006>008- 017-018-027.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ142.
Low Water Advisory from 3 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for LEZ142>144-162>164.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Sunday for LEZ143>146.
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for LEZ143-144-163- 164.
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for LEZ145-146-165- 166.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for LEZ147>149.
Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ147>149-167>169.