Vermilion, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vermilion, OH

June 13, 2024 4:54 PM EDT (20:54 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 9:05 PM
Moonrise 11:53 AM   Moonset 12:32 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ145 Vermilion To Avon Point Oh-avon Point To Willowick Oh- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- 912 Am Edt Thu Jun 13 2024

This afternoon - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.

Friday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.

Friday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 70 degrees, off cleveland 66 degrees, and off erie 65 degrees.

LEZ100
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vermilion, OH
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 131859 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 259 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
A ridge exits generally eastward before a cold front sweeps southeastward through our region during the predawn through mid-morning hours of Friday. Behind the front, a ridge builds from the Upper Midwest through Saturday before it begins to exit slowly toward New England on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Aloft, W'erly flow and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our region through Friday afternoon. Flow veers to NW'erly Friday evening with the passage of a stronger shortwave disturbance and as a subsequent ridge builds from the central U.S. and vicinity. At the surface, a ridge exits generally E'ward before a cold front sweeps generally SE'ward through our region during the predawn through mid-morning hours of Friday.
Behind the front, a ridge builds from the Upper Midwest and vicinity through daybreak Saturday. Tonight's lows are expected to reach the 60's around daybreak Friday. On Friday, low-level CAA behind the front will contribute to cooler late afternoon highs. Readings are expected to reach the lower to mid 70's in NW PA and mainly the mid 70's to mid 80's in northern OH. The warmest highs are expected in our I-75 corridor counties. Friday night's lows are forecast to reach mainly the 50's around daybreak as continued low-level cold/dry air advection and considerable clearing accompanying the building ridge contribute to efficient radiational cooling.

Primarily fair weather is expected during the near-term period due to stabilizing subsidence accompanying the pre-front and post-front ridging. However, upstream showers/thunderstorms initiating along a pre-front surface trough may overspread our I-75 corridor counties, Lake Erie, and vicinity this evening, especially after sunset. Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected along the surface cold front and along the upper-reaches of the front. The frontal convection should exit gradually E'ward or SE'ward between roughly daybreak and early evening on Friday. However, a few showers/thunderstorms associated with low-level convergence/moist ascent along the prominent shortwave trough's attendant surface trough axis may enter NW OH from the northwest Friday evening before dissipating around sunset as the boundary layer stabilizes via nocturnal cooling. Showers/thunderstorms are expected to be organized given the expectation of weak to moderate instability, including elevated CAPE, amidst moderate to strong deep layer bulk shear.
Weak mid-level lapse rates and development/growth of DCIN associated with nocturnal cooling-related boundary layer stabilization should contribute to very limited potential for severe thunderstorms through Friday morning. However, during Friday afternoon through early evening, a few thunderstorms may become severe with damaging convective wind gusts, especially roughly along/south of the U.S. 30 corridor, where greater low- level moisture should yield greater MUCAPE and sufficient diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer should yield moderate to strong DCAPE and weak or no DCIN amidst steep low-level lapse rates.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A dominant upper level ridge will begin to push east across the region on Saturday. This will produce a large area of subsidence over the region, allowing for dry conditions to persist. The bigger story over the weekend and into next week will be the rising temperatures. Behind the departing cold front from Friday night, temperatures on Saturday will only climb into the mid 70s along and east of I71 and possible touch 80 west of I71. With dewpoints lingering in the mid 40s to low 50s, the weather will feel pleasant.
Saturday night will cool into the mid to upper 50s. On Sunday, as WAA increasing, temperatures will climb into the mid 80s to low 90s, but again with dewpoints in the low 50s the apparent temperature will feel close to the actual temperature. Overnight lows will be warmer Sunday night, only falling into the mid to upper 60s, possibly not dropping below 70 in some locations.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
On Monday, a shortwave trough is expected to move along the northern edge of the ridge becoming established over the eastern US. With south-southwesterly flow expected to establish both WAA and increased moisture advection across the area, cannot rule out a few afternoon thunderstorms developing when instability is at its greatest, especially across the northern counties. Confidence in this is low, especially if the vort max shifts further north and limits upper level support. For the remainder of the period, there is a non-zero chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms, but given the non-favorable synoptic pattern, not expecting anything widespread.

The biggest story through the long term period will be the rising temperatures to well above normal for this time of year. Monday temperatures will start in the low to mid 90s everywhere and will persist through Thursday. With dewpoints expected to linger in the 60s, possibly reaching into the 70s at times, the conditions outside will be quite muggy and the apparent temperature values will approach 100 degrees, especially across western counties. Important to note that the forecast reflects a bit warmer of a trend than some long range models to try and account for the very dry antecedent conditions at the surface and the impacts that will have on overall temperatures. As a result of these conditions, the NWS HeatRisk tool has ranked the impact from these temperatures as major to extreme, noting that people will be affected without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration and that there will be little relief overnight as temperatures linger in the 70s. The greatest impacts will be felt in some health systems, heat-sensitive industries,and infrastructure.
Please remain updated with the latest forecast and prepare for the hot conditions in advance.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/
W'erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect northern OH and NW PA through 18Z/Fri. At the surface, a cold front is poised to sweep SE'ward through our area between ~07Z and ~13Z/Fri. Otherwise ridging affects our region. Widespread low clouds resulting in VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected along/behind the surface cold front. Regional surface winds trend SW'erly around 5 to 15 knots ahead of the front. These winds will gust up to 15 to 25 knots through ~00Z/Fri. Behind the front, our regional surface winds will be around 5 to 10 knots, veer to NW'erly, and eventually veer further toward NE'erly during Fri afternoon, especially roughly along/west of I-71.

Primarily VFR are expected ahead of the front. However, isolated pre-front showers/thunderstorms may overspread Lake Erie, our I-75 corridor counties, and vicinity from the west this evening. Otherwise, isolated showers/thunderstorms are expected to accompany the passage of the surface front. Behind the surface front passage, additional isolated showers/thunderstorms accompanying the upper-reaches of the front are expected to begin to exit generally SE'ward after 11Z/Fri. Fair weather is expected roughly along and northwest of a KFDY to KERI line by 18Z/Fri. Brief MVFR and erratic surface gusts up to 40 knots may accompany showers/storms, especially this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with isolated showers/thunderstorms through early Friday evening. Otherwise odds favor VFR through this Tuesday.

MARINE
Low pressure currently centered over Lake Superior will drag a cold front east across Lake Erie tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the boundary. In addition, winds ahead of the cold front will remain from the southwest at 10-15 knots before shifting to north-northwest flow by Friday morning and weakening to 5-10 knots. This shift to northerly flow will result in waves up to 2 feet along the coast of Lake Erie. As a dominant upper level ridge and associated high pressure shift over the region, winds will shift out of the east-northeast at 5-10 knots for Saturday and Sunday. Offshore flow of 5-10 knots becomes established Sunday night and looks to persist for much of next week as the aforementioned ridge remains in place.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45203 8 mi35 minSW 14G23 83°F 70°F1 ft63°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 8 mi70 minSSW 2.9 86°F 29.8963°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 10 mi55 minSW 15G21 86°F 29.84
LORO1 10 mi25 minSW 12G14 85°F
OWMO1 12 mi55 minSW 8 87°F 61°F
45204 15 mi35 minW 12G16 69°F1 ft
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 19 mi45 minS 9.7G12 74°F 69°F29.8566°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 22 mi55 minSW 5.1G11 87°F 70°F29.8351°F
45201 26 mi35 min9.7G16 80°F 70°F1 ft29.8765°F
45196 27 mi55 minSSW 12G16 78°F 68°F1 ft29.8565°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 30 mi55 minSSW 14G16 82°F 29.84
45202 32 mi35 min14G19 85°F 71°F1 ft29.8362°F
45176 33 mi45 minWSW 12G12 78°F 69°F1 ft29.8565°F
45205 33 mi35 min14G21 82°F 69°F1 ft29.8263°F
CMPO1 36 mi85 minWSW 11G20 87°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 39 mi55 minSW 5.1G8.9 85°F 66°F29.85
45164 42 mi55 minSW 7.8G9.7 72°F 66°F1 ft
45206 43 mi35 minWSW 7.8G14 78°F 69°F1 ft29.8165°F


Wind History for Marblehead, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KLPR LORAIN COUNTY RGNL,OH 11 sm61 minWSW 1310 smClear88°F61°F40%29.91
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Cleveland, OH,




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