NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
630 PM Update...

Made the usual tweaks to temperatures and dew points using current observations. Otherwise conditions continue to remain dry this evening.

220 PM Update...

Quiet, early fall weather will continue dominate the near term period. Just some scattered mid level cumulus clouds popping up this afternoon over the region, and there is a 5-10% chance for an isolated shower over the Catskills; otherwise remaining dry and warm with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid-80s into this evening.

Cumulus clouds fade away after sunset, giving way to mainly clear skies overnight as temperatures cool back into the 50s. Light and variable winds with a 1028mb ridge of high pressure over the region will bring another round of valley fog to the area.

The valley fog dissipates by 9-11 AM Monday morning, then a return to mostly sunny conditions are expected. A large upper level ridge remains over Central NY and Northeast PA through the day, the the surface high still over the area, or just off the New England coast later in the day. Expect dry weather, light easterly winds and warm temperatures in the upper 70s to mid-80s once again.

Not much changes for Monday night, as a slightly weaker 1025mb surface high remains over southern New England, extending west into our region as well. There is some hint of more scattered to broken mid/high level clouds potentially moving north into our area overnight. Still thinking there will be valley fog forming, but if the high clouds end up more extensive than currently forecast this would put a damper on the fog formation. Consistent overnight lows in the 50s to near 60 expected.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
100 PM Update...

High pressure will continue to reign supreme on Tuesday, keeping conditions warm and dry. Clouds will increase from south to north through the day as a low pressure system develops over the SE USA. Temps Tuesday will rise into the mid 70s to low 80s across the region.

We start to see a pattern change on Tuesday night as a closed low moves out of the SE US and into the Ohio River Valley and the ridge slides to the NE. The latest guidance has shifted a bit from previous runs, keeping the ridge closer to the area, which in turn limits the spread north of rain showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. Both the deterministic and ensemble runs of the GFS and Euro are showing this trend, which keeps the best chance for PoPs over NEPA through Wednesday night. Continued slight chance to low end chance PoPs spreading north into the Mohawk Valley given the uncertainty with how the ridge and closed low will interact. QPF amounts are forecast to be low, with up to 0.25in expected over NEPA and lower amounts in CNY.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the 70s.

Wednesday night, the closed upper low stops its progression north and begins to slide back to the ESE into the Virginias.
While doing this, a lobe of energy breaks away from the main low and develops a secondary low pressure center off the NJ coast.
By late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, the secondary low center will become the primary center as the upper trough opens and the majority of the precipitation moves off the southern New England Coast. Because this development is relatively new and confidence is low, kept low end chance/slight chance PoPs across the area through Wednesday night. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
130 PM Update...

Showers could linger in NEPA and the Catskills on Thursday as the surface low off southern New England slowly moves eastward.
Recent guidance shows a ridge quickly building into the region from the north Thursday afternoon or evening. This should dry out the region Thursday night through Saturday. However, the old adage is that one can never trust guidance's handling of a closed upper low. The Euro and GFS are differ in how the low develops, but both show it moving SSE and the ridge building in from the north. Timing is still unsure with the ridge so kept slight chance PoPs over Southern Tier, NEPA and Catskills through Friday morning. Conditions should dry out by then and we will see dry weather through Saturday. Temps should be seasonable through the period.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions with scattered mid level clouds over central NY will persist into the evening hours. Valley fog is expected to develop again tonight, with the worst impacts at ELM as usual.
Expect onset time of restrictions around 04Z, with 1/4SM vis prevailing by around 09Z. Light fog also possible at RME, but is expected to avoid all other terminals.

VFR conditions will return between 13Z and 15Z.

Winds will be light and variable up to around 5-7 kts through the period.

Outlook

Monday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; valley fog possible with visby restrictions at KELM.

Wednesday and Friday...Increasing chances for showers and possible restrictions, especially Southern Tier and NEPA terminals. Low confidence.

Friday...Mainly VFR expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.