Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Masthope, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

600 AM Update

Cloud cover was adjusted to increase coverage across the area quite substantially through mid-morning as a stratus deck has expanded areawide. These clouds are rather thin, and should burn off for western and central areas for some sunshine late morning and early afternoon. The clouds then still looks to back in from the east back to Auburn--Ithaca and Binghamton during the afternoon hours. While some patchy frost did likely occur the potential is not beginning to decrease, but will let the advisory expire later this morning.

240 AM Update

Areas of frost early this morning, especially west of I-81 where skies cleared out more and winds decoupled in the valleys.
Temperatures gradually warm up into the 50s by late morning, and between 55-65 for afternoon highs. Biggest challenge for today was trying to forecast the cloud cover. Some of the CAMs keep persistent cloud cover for areas east of I-81 much of the day, on the western periphery of an upper level low spinning near Atlantic Canada. Did blend in more cloud cover into the official forecast, as it appears clouds are likely to retrograde back west in the afternoon, reaching Syracuse and Binghamton by early to mid-afternoon...uncertainty remains on if this will be a solid shield of clouds moving in...or if it will be more scattered to broken cloud cover as it moves west.
The broken to overcast lower level clouds have the potential to make it back west to Auburn--Ithaca--Towanda by late afternoon and early evening before stalling the westward progression as some scattered mid/high level clouds move in from the west. Tonight will see gradually increasing cloud cover over the area with light easterly winds taking hold. Not as cold, with lows in the 40s expected.

On Wednesday, model guidance is coming into better agreement on the timing and northward progression of the incoming rain. It now appears there will be a rather sharp northern edge to the rain shield as it moves north. Latest guidance has rain to Corning-- Towanda and Scranton by 6-8 AM...not making it to Penn Yan, Ithaca and Binghamton until around 10-11 AM....and Syracuse to Cooperstown around 2-3 PM. The rain finally makes it to Utica and Rome by around 5 PM in the late afternoon. Rainfall amounts will range from less than a tenth of and inch north of I-90...to between a half inch to locally 1 inch across the Twin Tiers and Northeast PA. Otherwise, it will be a very cool day, with an increasing southeast wind around 10- 15 mph and high temperatures only in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
315 AM Update...

Cold and wet will be the name of the game for this forecast period as a broad, large scale troughing pattern across SE Canada, the Great Lakes and New England will dominate the weather pattern.

A closed mid level low will move into the area from the west and deepen Wednesday night. Rain showers that started earlier in the day will continue through Wednesday night into Thursday as a surface low develops over western PA and meanders NNE into WNY by Thursday. A second surface low is progged to develop off the NJ coast Thursday afternoon, which will help pump Atlantic moisture into the region through Thursday night. Rain looks to be showery with no convection expected given a deep layer of stability thanks to the cold, moist airmass present over the region. About 0.5-1.0 inches of rain is expected across the area through Thursday night, with higher amounts along the upslope elevations of the Catskills, Poconos and higher elevations in the Finger Lakes Region. The cold air will hinder rainfall rates, keeping 6hr rainfall totals around 0.25 inches.
Our area is in a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday thru Wednesday night, but confidence in our area seeing high rainfall rates that could initiate flooding are low at this time.

The mid level and surface lows lift to the NE on Friday, switching the wind field from SErly to NWerly. The overall trough pattern remains, with some weak shortwave rippling through the pattern, allowing for rain showers to continue through Friday night. Lake effect showers will also be possible with the NW flow and cold air up to 700mb.

Temperatures during this period will be very cold for this time of year. Highs Thursday and Friday will be 15-20 degrees below normal, with lows around 10 degrees below normal. It will feel more like March than May with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows in the low to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
340 PM update...

The weather pattern will continue to be influenced by the upper level trough sitting over the NE US through the weekend.
Saturday will remain cold with the Canadian airmass remaining overhead as the stacked closed low over Maine continues to slowly move to the NE. Weak shortwaves and cold air over the lakes will continue to develop rain showers Saturday. Chances for widespread shower coverage become lower on Sunday as the low's influence wanes and some warmer air is advected in from the west. We could see some jet streak enhancement Monday, kicking off scattered rain showers, especially in the afternoon hours.

Temps Sunday and Monday look to be warmer, with highs in the 60s.

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
6 AM Update

An expansive areas of MVFR stratus clouds has develop over the forecast area early this morning, and should linger a few more hours until burning off and scattering our by mid to late morning.

Another area of borderline MVFR/VFR clouds develops over the Mohawk Valley and Catskills early this afternoon and looks to spread back west toward SYR/BGM and ITH during the afternoon and evening hours.

Otherwise, skies will be mainly sunny and clear back toward ELM and AVP into the afternoon hours. Mid and high level clouds move in from the southwest by late evening and into the overnight period. Eventually MVFR/MVFR fuel alt CIGs develop for BGM/ELM and AVP toward daybreak Wednesday as rain develops.

Expect northerly winds 5 to 15 kts through this evening, then turning northeasterly overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday into Saturday...Wet pattern with restrictions and waves of rain showers likely.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ038>040.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.