Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 2:15 PM   Moonset 3:46 AM

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LEZ143 Expires:202404190215;;972339 Fzus51 Kcle 181942 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 342 pm edt Thu apr 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-190215- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 342 pm edt Thu apr 18 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday night - West winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 55 degrees, off cleveland 47 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 190138 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 938 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will cross the region late tonight and Friday morning. High pressure will return Friday afternoon. A secondary cold front will move through early Saturday followed by high pressure returning for the rest of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
930 PM Update...
Slight adjustments were made to the temperatures as radiational cooling as allowed them to be a bit chillier than previously forecast. The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged.

630 PM Update...
Primary change with this update was slight adjustments to the onset of precipitation tonight. Scattered showers will still approach from the west around midnight, but the more organized band of showers will be a bit later, around 2AM and then will push east. There remains a chance of thunder in the forecast, especially west of I71, but with such limited instability and a diurnally unfavorable environment still not expecting it to be widespread. SPC maintains the Marginal Risk of severe weather over the southwestern counties. The primary threat will be gusty winds. No other changes were needed with this update.

Original Discussion...
Mid/upper shortwave ridging has built into the region this afternoon, with surface high pressure centered over the southern Great Lakes. The associated drier air has finally eroded most of the cloud cover, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 60s in NW and north central Ohio. Mid-level clouds held on longer in far NE Ohio and NW PA, and this combined with a lake breeze has kept temperatures in the upper 50s there. Expect the clearing to continue to progress east over the next couple of hours, and NW PA will finally see sunshine by 20 or 21Z setting up a fairly pleasant evening areawide.

Unfortunately, the nicer weather will not last long with visible satellite and water vapor loops showing a broad mid/upper trough pressing into the northern Rockies, northern Plains, and Upper Midwest. This trough will slowly expand into the Great Lakes late tonight and Friday bringing a push of unseasonably cool air into the region. A strong 125-130 knot H3 jet streak over the Upper Midwest rounding the base of the trough will support a weak surface low lifting from the Mid Mississippi Valley this evening to Lake Erie by Friday morning, extending a cold front through the region. The cold front is expected to be located roughly along the I-71 corridor at 12Z Friday, with it reaching the OH/PA lines by 15 or 16Z. Showers will spread into the region from west to east ahead of the front tonight, beginning after 04Z in NW Ohio and reaching the I-71 and I- 77 corridors by 09-11Z. It will take until 12Z or so for the showers to reach far eastern Ohio and western PA. These showers will be driven by a 30-35 knot low-level jet in response to the aforementioned jet streak, leading to weak warm/moist advection and isentropic ascent combined with strong low-level convergence ahead of the cold front. As the surface low approaches from the southwest tonight, a warm front should at least arc into western and central Ohio leading to backed low-level flow and low-level SRH increasing over 200 m2/s2 along the boundary. Guidance has trended a bit farther north with this boundary overnight, so will need to watch for localized rotation with any embedded convection. The latest SWODY1 has pulled the Marginal Risk into the western and southwestern CWA for mainly gusty winds overnight, but instability will be the main limiting factor. Due to the overnight timing, any instability is expected to be weak and elevated. HRRR ensemble means bring about 200-500 joules of elevated CAPE into the region in the warm sector overnight, but little to none is expected at the surface. Despite some rotation possible, this will prevent any tornadoes. We will probably not see any severe weather at all, but given the aforementioned helicity and deep layer shear over 40 kts, cannot rule out an isolated damaging wind gust over the southwestern counties from Findlay to Marion between about 05 and 08Z.

Showers will end from west to east fairly quickly Friday morning behind the exiting cold front, and any lingering showers over far eastern Ohio and western PA will be gone by early afternoon as drier air works in. Cold air advection and a fairly tight pressure gradient will lead to fairly breezy W to SW winds behind the front of 10-20 kts, with occasional gusts of 20-25 knots in the afternoon, especially in NW Ohio and near Lake Erie. As the trough continues to dig into the Great Lakes Friday night, a secondary cold front will approach from the north. Moisture is limited, but lift ahead of the front and westerly flow across the lake with weak lake induced instability could generate a few showers in NW PA, so added slight chance PoPs toward sunrise Saturday morning.

Highs Friday will stay in the upper 50s to low 60s as the cooler air filters in. Lows tonight will average low/mid 50s, with upper 30s to low 40s Friday night.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A cool dry weekend is expected with temperatures averaging about 10 degrees below average. A rather deep upper trough over Hudson Bay will persist through the weekend and produce a cool rapid nw flow across the region. Temperatures at 850 mb will drop to -3 to -6C.
Overnight lows will drop into the 30s and frost is expected away from Lake Erie both Saturday and Sunday nights. High temperatures will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Moderating temperatures with fair weather is expected on Monday as weak high pressure lingers over the region. A shortwave trough will move from the upper Mississippi Valley early Tuesday and into the Great Lakes by Tuesday night. The associated low pressure will track from the western Great Lakes to eastern Ontario and the trailing cold front will cross the region Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region Tuesday afternoon and night with the approach and passage of the cold front. A few showers will linger Wednesday morning before much cooler air moves into the region. Unseasonably cool high pressure will build into the region on Thursday and another round of frost is possible Wednesday night.
Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s with cooler 50s for Wednesday and Thursday. Lows temperatures in the 40s are expected Monday and Tuesday nights with lower to mid 30s on Wednesday night.

AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
Widespread VFR conditions will continue into tonight with winds generally light and variable. Another system impacts the area overnight, bringing a line of showers and scattered thunderstorms west to east beginning near 06Z. Some scattered showers may impact western terminals as early as 04Z, but should be limited in terms of any impact. Once the primary band of precipitation ahead of the cold front moves in, visibilities will become MVFR and possibly IFR in the heaviest showers. For KTOL this will begin near 06Z and for KCLE near 09Z. In addition, ceilings will gradually begin to lower remaining at MVFR heights ahead of the cold front, but lowering to IFR behind it. Opted to maintain high end IFR heights as confidence is low with how low the ceilings will go. As the cold front and associated showers depart late morning into early afternoon, all terminals should rebound to VFR conditions before the end of this TAF period.

Light and variable winds this evening will increase to southeast at 5-10 knots near the onset of precipitation. These winds will quickly shift to northwesterly behind the cold front and increase to 12-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots possible.
These gusty winds will persist through the afternoon before weakening near sunset. The exception to these wind conditions will be KERI which will see enhanced winds of 12-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots from the southeast Friday morning due to downsloping.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers Tuesday.

MARINE
Weak high pressure over the region early this evening will quickly shift east as low pressure 29.80 inches over Missouri tracks northeast across Lake Erie by Friday morning. A cold front will push east across the lake Friday afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will cross the Great Lakes on early Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory may be necessary east of Willowick with waves of 3 to 5 feet. High pressure will build east through the Ohio Valley Sunday through Monday. Low pressure will track eastward north of the lake on Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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