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LEZ146 Expires:202311301515;;642391 Fzus51 Kcle 300823 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 323 am est Thu nov 30 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez144>147-301515- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh-willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 323 am est Thu nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 301835 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 135 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Mild southwest flow is expected today and tonight ahead of a low pressure and cold front that will impact the region Friday into Saturday. The next area of low pressure is expected to move northeast through the region Sunday and Sunday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Gusty southerly winds will continue through the overnight as a cold front moves across the central Great Lakes. This boundary should stall somewhere near Lake Erie allowing low pressure to track northeastward along it. This low is currently closer to the Gulf of Mexico but will move to Illinois/Indiana by Friday evening. Expect to see increasing isentropic lift across the region ahead of this area of low pressure with rain spreading southwest to northeast across the region through Friday afternoon.
The heaviest rainfall looks like it will remain north of the CWA but a quarter to half an inch of rainfall should occur. Even with the added moisture from the snow melting across NE OH into NW PA it should not lead to any flooding along area creeks and rivers.

Highs this afternoon should range from the mid 40's to mid 50's.
Warmer tonight with the increased cloud cover and winds. Lows in the mid 30's to around 40. Cloud cover and rain should keep highs in the 40's fro Friday afternoon.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Friday night will start with a stationary front over Lake Erie and a low pressure system to the west of the region over Illinois and Indiana. The low will move northeast along the front through Saturday. Ahead of the low, there will be a lull in precipitation on Friday evening with a dry slot developing across the region.
However, as the low curls northeast into the region, expect precipitation chances to increase late Friday night as the dry slot fills in and have increasing PoPs early in the period. The low will be quick to exit on Saturday and the fetch behind the system shouldn't lead to any meaningful lake effect/enhancement and have PoPs clearing out fairly quickly on Saturday. Another weak low will target the region on Sunday and have PoPs increasing once again with this system. There remains some uncertainty in the track and evolution with this low and have PoPs at a mix of chance/likely levels at this time. The eastern half of the area seems most likely to get precipitation as the system passes, but there will be greater confidence in this forecast period with time. Temperatures will be back to near/above normal values for the first weekend of December and in the 50s at times with the area in the warm sector of the passing lows.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low confidence forecast for early next week, but several chances for precipitation will exist with a general upper level trough over the eastern half of the country. The evolution of the forecast will largely hinge on a weak low pressure system that will move through the region on Sunday and how quick and how strong it will move through the region. In the end, best believe that some residual rain/snow/lake effect will exist behind the system for Monday and have some higher PoPs in NE OH/NW PA for now. Otherwise, have some fairly generic PoPs for potential passing systems with the need for refinement in the future. Temperatures through the period will be a touch below normal for the first full week of December.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR conditions are expected across much of the region through the overnight. As a cold front moves closer overnight and a ripple of low pressure approaches early Friday morning we expect ceilings to lower to at least MVFR levels. As the rainfall increases from southwest to northeast through the morning conditions dip to IFR levels at times. Conditions attempt to improve a little bit Friday evening but should not improve beyond MVFR conditions.

South-southwest winds of 12-18 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots expected into the evening. Gusts will subside after sunset, but sustained winds will remain in the 10 to 15 knot range overnight into Friday.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected Friday evening into the overnight in scattered rain and low clouds. Scattered rain showers likely produce non-VFR conditions on Sunday.

MARINE
A ridge southeast of the region will continue to promote a strong pressure gradient across the lake and will allow for increased southwest flow for today and into the first part of tonight. While winds at the moment are behaving, do expect an increase back toward 20 knots and will let the current Small Craft Advisory ride for areas east of the Lake Erie Islands. A front will approach and stall out near the lake tonight into Friday and winds will favor more of a southerly direction through the day Friday. A low pressure system will travel along this boundary and cross the lake on Saturday, shifting flow onshore with westerly to northwesterly flow by Saturday night. The flow should be weak enough to preclude any additional lake headlines but there could be some elevated waves over the eastern basin for Saturday afternoon. The forecast for early next week remains uncertain at this time but it best appears that a weak low pressure feature will approach or move northwest of the lake on Sunday and allow for offshore flow to return to the basin, eventually becoming focused into southwest flow for Sunday night into Monday. It is too early to tell if there will be the need for any marine headlines early next week, but with weak intensity lows moving through the region, do not believe any will be strong enough to merit a headline at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ144>149.

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