Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 11:45 PM   Moonset 7:22 AM

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LEZ145 Vermilion To Avon Point Oh-avon Point To Willowick Oh- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- 924 Pm Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 53 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 270537 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 137 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift north through the area Saturday morning as high pressure builds just off of the East Coast. A cold front will then push east across the area Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure remains off of the East Coast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
905 PM Update...
Some minor POP edits based on radar trends. Rain being reported in the western zones, but taking a little time to work its way through some dry air. Shower coverage and QPF amounts should pick up overnight as the mid level f-gen strengthens and the isentropic lift becomes better defined. Minor edits to the overnight lows.

Previous Discussion...
Broken high clouds are beginning to arrive from the west ahead of an approaching warm front poised to lift north across the area late tonight into Saturday. For much of the forecast period through Saturday night, confidence remains low on rain coverage and intensity apart from late tonight into Saturday morning along and east of the I-77 corridor. Anticipate at least a several-hour period of rain with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder out east during this timeframe, although instability will largely remain limited within the lightning initiation zone.

As the warm front lifts north across the area late tonight into Saturday morning, a much more humid air mass will follow as surface dew points rise into the upper 50s to perhaps lower 60s with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s. This humid air mass is anticipated to remain through the near term period.

As mentioned above, apart from the precipitation associated with the isentropic ascent ahead of the warm front, it remains difficult to pinpoint rain and thunderstorm coverage, especially Saturday afternoon and evening as multiple weak shortwave impulses move along the western periphery of the larger-scale upper-level ridge. At this time, isolated to low-end scattered rain/thunderstorm coverage appears reasonable for Saturday afternoon and evening, given the humid air mass in place coupled with waves of mid-level energy traversing the western periphery of the upper-level ridge. If storms are able to develop Saturday afternoon and evening, there could be an increased potential for a strong storm or two, especially across NW PA where the instability/shear overlap is more favorable.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Upper level ridging increases slightly on Sunday but there should be a flow of low level moisture into the region. Above average temperatures are expected Sunday into Monday ahead of a cold front that wont cross the region until late Monday night. The warm temperatures will assist with getting a lake breeze boundary to develop by Sunday afternoon. This boundary may generate enough low level convergence to interact with the increased low level moisture and heat to allow for the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. For Monday it appears we will need to wait until the cold front gets closer to the region. By late evening into the overnight hours there should be a period of showers and thunderstorms. However the region may become unstable enough Monday afternoon to allow for some scattered development of thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be well above average through the short term period. A few locations may approach record levels Sunday afternoon across NW OH, spreading to the central and eastern portions of northern OH on Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cold front moves across the region on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms gradually ending from west to east through the afternoon. There should then be a brief dry period Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A weakening cold front then sags into the region on Wednesday with a few thunderstorms possible. This boundary looks like it stalls over southern Ohio Wednesday night into Thursday. It then becomes the path for the next area of low pressure to follow. This low may move across the region with showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal averages through the long term.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
The main aviation weather message will be VFR conditions outside of any scattered rain showers with an advancing warm front moving through the area this morning. Mainly VFR ceilings and conditions for all TAF sites except for the possibility of MVFR ceilings during a small time window later this morning for CLE, YNG and ERI. Ceilings may lower to 3k feet for a few hours for CLE and YNG later this morning and midday. Ceilings may lower to 1500-3000 feet for ERI as well later this morning into the midday before bouncing back up to VFR. ERI may see some visibility restrictions down to 3sm to 5sm for brief periods of time due to rain showers passing through. The other aviation concern will be the gusty winds later this morning through the afternoon. Winds will start out southeasterly 8 to 12 knots but become south-southwesterly later today 12 to 18 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots possible. Winds and gusts will relax after 00z this evening with speeds around 10 to 12 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday. Non-VFR is most likely in showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday with a cold front.

MARINE
Low pressure moves into the upper Great Lakes tonight as high pressure departs to the east. This will allow the pressure gradient to increase as a warm front approaches. Expect to see southeast winds increase overnight with the strongest winds from 2 AM through 2 PM. Wind speeds will be very close to 20 knots but since it will be an offshore flow we will hold off on a small craft advisory.
Winds are then expected to decrease Saturday evening but will shift more to the southwest by Sunday. It appears that there is a good chance for a lake breeze to develop from Cleveland to Ripley for Sunday afternoon with some thunder possible along it. So expect to see onshore winds increase in this area late Sunday morning into the afternoon.

The next area of low pressure should move into the upper Great Lakes Monday afternoon into Monday night with a cold front approaching from the west. Expect to see southwest winds increase to 10 to 20 knots ahead of the front. The front should cross the lake late Monday night into Tuesday with winds shifting to the west.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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