Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:22AM||Sunset 7:45PM||Thursday April 15, 2021 12:09 AM EDT (04:09 UTC)||Moonrise 7:18AM||Moonset 10:22PM||Illumination 10%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Noxen, PAHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBGM 150147 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 947 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021
SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will develop off the Mid-Atlantic Coastline on Thursday with several rounds of rain, mixing with snow in the highest elevations of New York. This low pressure system will slowly depart by Sunday. However, a few passing weak cold fronts will continue the chance for a few showers into next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. 930 pm update . Updated the forecast with the current observations. Reduced PoPs across NE PA and increased PoPs along our western counties to fall more in line with current precipitation. Also reduced cloud cover over NE PA and Broome and Cortland counties in NY as clouds have cleared out a bit over the area. The rest of the forecast was unchanged. Steady rain showers are still forecast to move into the area during the morning hours.
630 pm update . Just minor changes. A few showers around now but most of them will push east this evening. Temperatures will fall into the 50s this evening then 40s overnight. Mainly mostly cloudy skies will become cloudy as steady showers move in toward morning.
previous discussion . Radar late this afternoon shows some scattered showers along and east of I-81. Mesoscale models do show some additional showers developing into the early evening as well. Current thinking is a potential lull in the showers for a time overnight before a trough of low pressure and cold front come in from the west. This will lead to the development of another round of showers and steady rain overnight. Through tonight rainfall amounts look light under a quarter of an inch as the system overall has trended slower with development. Cloud cover should keep temperatures up in the 40's across the region.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A coastal low will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline Thursday and move into New England by Thursday night. Temperatures will be very slow to rise staying in the 40's due to clouds and additional rounds of rain. However, east of I-81 where the steadiest precipitation is expected temperatures should actually fall a few degrees in the afternoon. Modeling has once again slightly nudged the track of this system to the east which lowers rain chances west of I-81 a little more. While rain continues to look rather steady QPF has trended downward for this event with model and ensemble guidance which is in good agreement. Less than half of inch of rain is anticipated west of I-81 with top QPF amounts around an inch of rain in the western Catskills. with the lower QPF, any potential for minor flooding issues continue to decrease.
By late Thursday afternoon into the evening, evaporational ands dynamical cooling still look to be enough for higher elevations of mainly Delaware and Otsego counties from rain to snow. Snowfall rates may be fairly heavy for a few hours with some of the highest peaks getting a couple inches of snow. Continued HWO mention for now. Bands of rain and snow showers look to pinwheel back into the region from the northeast into Friday. With clouds and precipitation under a cold pool aloft temperatures will be in 30's and 40's through Friday night. Northwest wind gusts are also to pick up with momentum transfer analysis showing the potential for 15-20 mph in the afternoon.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. On Saturday, a vertically stacked cyclone will track well east off the New England coast and begin to fill. NY and PA initially will be in a deep moist and cold northwest flow in the wrap around part of this cyclone. Model soundings have moisture lingering Saturday morning with the NAM being a bit drier than the GFS. The GFS would suggest flurries/sprinkles at times into the afternoon with a deeper moisture profile. By afternoon GFS maintains this deeper moist layer even with a mixed layer up to 3000 feet or so. And therefore the GFS has light QPF all day Saturday. The NAM has shallower moisture and just a touch of sprinkles/flurries in the morning. The Euro is similar to the NAM and the CMC is in between both models. The NBM is showing dry and no QPF. Given the synoptic setup, we likely will see a few flurries/sprinkles Saturday morning and this activity will end by afternoon with convective mixing and subsidence. Added slight chance POPs for a large part of CWA Saturday morning. No snow accumulations expected Saturday morning.
For Saturday night, northwest flow continues as another upper level wave skirts to the south of northeast PA/central NY and shears out. Euro and GFS both keep most of our forecast area clear of QPF. The CMC still has lingering moisture from departing cyclone well off the New England coast. NBM is dry and we will continue with this.
For Sunday, cold air aloft will overlay fairly moist low-levels and Euro and GFS both are showing activity developing light QPF in the suggesting scattered light rain showers bubbling up with convective heating. We will have chance POPs and weighted more toward the afternoon with the convective heating. For Sunday night, all this light activity wanes with loss of heating. Basically, the NBM has a good handle on this time period and followed for POPs.
For Monday, models diverge a bit and still suggest a little weak convective shower activity. We will go with NBM which has sprinkles for parts of central NY. Next cold front approaches region on Tuesday with scattered showers arriving in the afternoon. Again followed NBM closely.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR conditions expected for most of the conditions, but conditions will start to deteriorate by sunrise. Rain moves into central NY and northeast PA tomorrow morning and conditions worsen to MVFR at most terminals through the morning. IFR conditions will be likely at KRME, KITH and KBGM and possibly KSYR by early afternoon. IFR will possible at other sites as well, but confidence is too low at this time to include in the forecast.
Thursday night through Friday night . Rain showers as well as wintry mix and associated restrictions expected. Wintry mix will mainly affect higher terrain areas.
Saturday . Mostly VFR
Sunday and Monday . Possible rain showers and associated restrictions. Otherwise, mostly VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.
SYNOPSIS . MWG/TAC NEAR TERM . JTC/MWG/TAC SHORT TERM . MWG LONG TERM . DJN AVIATION . MPK
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|Wilkes-Barre - Scranton, Wilkes-Barre / Scranton International Airport, PA||17 mi||75 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||55°F||46°F||72%||1010.4 hPa|
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