Saturday, August17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Noxen, PA

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 8:02PM Saturday August 17, 2019 9:32 PM EDT (01:32 UTC) Moonrise 8:26PMMoonset 7:01AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Noxen, PA
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location: 41.46, -76     debug

Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 180052
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
852 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

A few upper level disturbances will move east across the region
through Sunday night with off and on showers and thunderstorms.

A weak cold front will move into the region Monday with chances
for more showers and thunderstorms. This unsettled weather
pattern will last until late next week when a stronger cold
front moves through the region. High pressure will follow this
front bringing fair and cooler weather for Friday and Saturday.

Near term through Sunday night
850 pm update... Upper level short wave seen well in the water
vapor imagery was tracking northeast into southwest quebec.

Subsidence behind this feature as well as the loss of the
daytime heating will eventually lead to the demise of the
showers and thunderstorms across the poconos into the southern
catskills. This activity will continue to move east and south of
our area by late evening. Much of the rest of the night will
become clear with valley fog forming overnight.

700 pm update... Updated pops to better reflect radar coverage.

Otherwise no major changes after 03z.

Previous discussion...

water vapor imagery shows an upper level wave moving northeast
across far southeast ontario. This wave was leading to cooling
aloft at 500 mb as per the SPC mesoanalysis. Visible satellite
imagery continues to show insolation south of the convection
which has fired over northern and western ny. Mixed layer capes
were running between 1000 and 2000 j kg in south central ny and
northeast pa south of convection. Vertical wind shear was
between 30 and 40 knots so we expect more development farther
south with strong to severe thunderstorms. We will have likely
pops moving east across the forecast area of central
ny northeast pa for showers and thunderstorms. Enhanced the
wording with gusty winds and lightning. Activity will wind down
overnight with loss of heating and passage of short wave
warming aloft. The low-level winds will be light southerly so
will have patchy valley fog again late tonight.

For Sunday, models show another smaller upper wave moving east
Sunday which will be the impetus for more afternoon convection.

The lower atmosphere will be even moister than today with
dewpoints likely into the lower 70s and hence model capes exceed
2000 j kg. 0-6 km wind shear will be 25 to 30 knots or so and
with a weaker wave believe there will be more storms but not as
widespread as today. Heat indices are projected to be close to
heat advisory criteria but fall just short. So no heat
advisories this issuance.

By Sunday night, another upper wave moves through to our north
but we will be in the diurnal minimum of CAPE so have slight
chance to chance pops higher in our north and lower to the
south farther away from the wave and lifting.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
For Monday, upper level short wave trough moves northeast from
eastern ontario to central quebec. This wave will press a cold
front south into northern ny eastern great lakes region by
Monday evening. The low-level winds will accelerate from the
west-southwest ahead of this upper level wave and advect higher
low-level dewpoints into central ny and northeast pa. Mixed
layer capes on the NAM are projected to be over 2000 j kg
especially in south central ny and northeast pa. The 0-6 km bulk
vertical wind shear is between 25 and 35 knots with the highest
shear farther north. We will go with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms for Monday afternoon. Pops will be
highest in north central ny and lower farther south. There will
be some potential for severe thunderstorms given the
instability and shear profiles. Heat indices also will be close
to heat advisory criteria of 95f in parts of central ny as

For Monday night, high pressure builds across central ny and
northeast pa as we come under a short-lived short wave ridge
axis. With clearing skies, looks like an excellent night for
valley fog formation by Tuesday morning. GFS holds onto some
showers into the night with the euro and NAM tapering activity
down into the evening. We will have chance pops for showers and
storms mainly in the evening, tapering off overnight into
Tuesday morning.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, more showers and thunderstorms
will be possible as a low-level wave spins up across the middle
atlantic states. The euro GFS cmc and NAM all have this feature
with associated qpf. For grids went with nbm for now given the
timing uncertainities and the convective nature of the wave.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Used nbm as a starting point for this period. All synoptic
models show a large upper trough building into the northeast u.S
by Friday with a large canadian high pressure following the
trough. This trough will push a cold front through the region
from Wednesday night to Thursday night depending on which model
you look at. So used the blend to populate the pops in this time
period. All synoptic models and the nbm agree that cooler and
drier air covers the region for Friday and Saturday so have
pops less than 15 percent both days.

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
A line of thunderstorms will affect kavp between 00z and 01z and
have a 1 hour tempo group to ifr with a gust to 35 knots from
the west-northwest. After this line of storms passes east of
kavp all terminals will beVFR until fog and low clouds form
overnight for some terminals. We expect ifr in fog at kith,
kbgm and ifr vlifr in fg at kelm between 7-8z and 13z. Rest of
terminals should stayVFR. After sunrise on Sunday there is
enough low-level moisture that we believe an MVFR deck will
develop for a few hours all terminals before a scattered to
brokenVFR cumulus deck forms all terminals by 15-17z. After 17z
vfr all terminals. We put a prob30 group 18z-24z for MVFR -tsra
all terminals as there will be scattered hit and miss
thunderstorms around.

Winds will be nearly calm overnight and light southerly on
Sunday during the day.


Sunday night... MVFR conditions possible in lingering showers.

Monday to Thursday... Restrictions possible in showers and

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Djn
near term... Djn
short term... Djn
long term... Djn
aviation... Djn

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilkes-Barre - Scranton, Wilkes-Barre / Scranton International Airport, PA17 mi98 minN 010.00 miFair75°F70°F84%1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAVP

Wind History from AVP (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalm--------CalmCalm--S3CalmE3--NW5NW4W3SW6SW7SW7S75NE7NE5CalmS4
1 day ago--Calm--E4--------E4Calm----5SW54SW535--5S74SW4--
2 days ago3E4SE3E5CalmE4E3E5E4E4CalmCalmN44SE7SE5S6Calm3S44----E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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