Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sandusky, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Unsettled weather expected Tuesday through the middle of the week with record high temperatures possible on Tuesday.

2) A strong low pressure system moves through the region with rain, strong winds, and the coldest air of the season thus far Friday through the weekend. Sub-freezing temperatures are likely across portions of the area Saturday night.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The local area will be in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front tonight through Tuesday before the front finally pushes southeast across the area late Tuesday into Wednesday.
A shortwave will cross Lake Erie and NE OH/NW PA tonight into early Tuesday morning, resulting in a chance of isolated showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder across the northeastern portion of the local area.

Deep warm air advection is expected on Tuesday with widespread temperatures in the 80s expected. Several locations across northern Ohio will likely reach the mid to upper 80s (best chance along/west of I-71), which will challenge daily high temperature records (see Climate section at the bottom of this AFD). In addition to the warm temperatures, dew points will climb well into the 60s Tuesday afternoon so it will certainly feel muggier than the recent stretch of crisp early fall weather. It will also be quite breezy with southwest wind gusts to 20 to 30 mph expected during peak diurnal mixing late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.

The best chance of precipitation will arrive with the cold front late Tuesday night into Wednesday. There will be instability and plenty of moisture across the area so thunderstorms are possible, although widespread cloud cover and showers early in the day will mitigate the risk of stronger thunderstorms. Rain may be moderate to heavy at times Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A brief break in precip is expected Wednesday evening through Thursday morning, but the next (and more potent) system will move into the region starting Thursday afternoon. Showers are expected and a few thunderstorms are possible as the system's cold front approaches and moves east across the area Thursday afternoon through early Friday with scattered lake-enhanced showers continuing through Friday and maybe as late as Saturday as the associated strong upper trough lags behind the initial surface front. It will be quite windy as strong high pressure attempts to build east into the region Friday and gusts to 35 to 40 mph are likely areawide Friday afternoon with locally higher gusts possible close to Lake Erie. The back side of the system will usher some of the coldest temperatures of the season thus far into the area with widespread highs in the upper 40s into the 50s expected Saturday. Frost headlines are possible as temperatures dip into the upper 30s Friday night, although there is a higher chance of frost and even freeze headlines as temps drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s Saturday night.
Temperatures might even be cold enough across portions of NW PA to warrant a low-end chance of the first few snowflakes of the season mixing in with rain early Saturday. Temperatures will begin to recover Sunday as the high takes control of the eastern CONUS.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/
Earlier lower clouds have finally cleared out, leaving VFR conditions that should mainly persist through the TAF period.
A brief surge of mid-level moisture and lift will lead to a cloud deck around 10,000 feet moving across the area late tonight into early Tuesday...some showers may fall out of this deck across northern terminals (TOL-CLE-ERI), with the greatest potential at ERI where a PROB30 was introduced.

South-southwest winds this afternoon will remain at a similar direction through Tuesday, veering slightly more southwest Tuesday afternoon. Speeds of 6-12kt will remain common through much of tonight, increasing to 10-15kt with gusts to 25kt on Monday. Included a brief window of marginal LLWS at TOL early Tuesday morning due to an expected 40kt low-level jet atop a near-surface inversion. The low-level jet is several knots weaker elsewhere, precluding LLWS in the other TAFs.

Outlook...Intermittent non-VFR likely late Tuesday night into Wednesday with showers and a lower potential for thunderstorms.
Additional non-VFR in rain showers along with gusty winds likely Thursday night through Friday night.

MARINE
Southwest winds to 10 to 20 knots are expected over Lake Erie through Tuesday. The highest winds will be in the open waters through Tuesday afternoon, but winds in nearshore zones in the western basin will approach 20 knots Tuesday afternoon. In general, the offshore flow will focus any higher waves into the open waters, but will need to keep an eye on wind speeds and the resulting wave heights from roughly Willowick OH to Ripley NY Tuesday afternoon. Winds will shift to the west/northwest and diminish to 10 knots or less behind a cold front Tuesday night into early Wednesday with north/northeast winds to 10 to 20 knots developing by Wednesday night. The most unsettled marine conditions of the week (and the season thus far) will arrive Friday as a strong low pressure system moves across the area.
West/northwest winds to 25 to 35 knots are currently forecast and Gale Warnings will likely be needed for the end of the week if the forecast remains valid. Winds should gradually diminish late Friday through Saturday, although Small Craft Advisories will be needed through the first half of the weekend.

CLIMATE
Temperatures are forecast to be near record high values across Northwest and North Central Ohio on Tuesday. Records for October 13 are listed below for the official climate locations.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie

10-13 83(1975) 84(1969) 82(1969) 82(1969) 83(1969) 83(1983)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.