Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 3:12 PM   Moonset 4:03 AM

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LEZ146 Expires:202404190215;;972340 Fzus51 Kcle 181942 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 342 pm edt Thu apr 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-190215- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 342 pm edt Thu apr 18 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 55 degrees, off cleveland 47 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 190844 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 444 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front exits to the east today. A secondary cold front moves through early Saturday. High pressure builds in Saturday afternoon through Monday, with low pressure moving out of the central U.S. and into the Great Lakes on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A cold front and convectively-aided shortwave are moving in from the west early this morning and will sweep across the area through midday. This convection is feeding off of about 100 J/KG of MUCAPE attempting to feed into it from the Ohio Valley and is on a gradual weakening trend. Activity should continue weakening as it moves east through this morning, though most of the area should still see at least a light amount of rain with perhaps a bit of thunder / lightning here and there. The weakening batch of convection is running slightly ahead of the actual cold front, so it's possible we see the weakening batch of rain/ thunder move through with another line of low-topped showers trying to develop along the actual cold front as that sweeps through. Either way, it will be mainly cloudy with some rain around this morning. Good dry punch behind the front so any rain chances will be swept out with the cold front. There may be a brief period of lower stratus along and just behind the cold front though we should see sunshine return from northwest to southeast later this morning through this afternoon.

Generally quiet conditions are expected tonight and Saturday. A weak shortwave will zip through the upper Ohio Valley tonight and will likely bring a mid-level cloud deck to our southern/ southeastern counties. The low-levels are expected to be too dry for any precip. A secondary cold front pushes through Saturday morning as a rather potent shortwave over the Great Lakes glances the region. Do have a brief slight chance for showers mentioned in Northwest PA Saturday morning-midday for this feature, though in general the low-level airmass looks fairly dry. Otherwise, as temperatures aloft cool diurnal cumulus will likely spread back in Saturday afternoon. Not impossible we get a sprinkle or brief shower somewhere out of the cumulus as some models depict, though the airmass is dry and most models don't have measurable QPF so kept POPs out for now.

Temperatures will hold steady or fall a bit this morning behind the cold front and then rebound into the mid 50s to near 60 behind the front. Places like Akron/Canton, Youngstown and Erie/ Meadville may actually just see a high in the upper 50s/lower 60s ahead of the front. Lows tonight in the upper 30s/lower 40s.
Highs on Saturday will be a bit chilly, generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 MPH are expected Saturday morning and early afternoon out of the west-northwest.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will build east across the Ohio Valley Sunday through Monday, pushing east Monday night. The main concern during this time will be for frost as low temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s both nights. Saturday night may have partial cloud cover with the cumulus field dissipating while some high cloud spreads overhead.
Regardless, think there will be windows of clearing and enough time for areas of frost to develop. Sunday night does look more favorable for a widespread frost as temperatures will once again be in the low to mid 30s with mostly clear skies and light winds, especially from north Central Ohio to Northwest Pennsylvania.
Frost will be patchy if at all closer to Lake Erie. Daytime highs will be in the 50s on Sunday then rebound to 60 or better across the western half of the forecast area on Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The active northwest flow pattern continues into next week with another trough deepening as it crosses the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region on Tuesday. Surface low pressure will cross lower Michigan and then pass north of the eastern Great Lakes. The 00Z Canadian and ECMWF are both a little slower and farther north than the GFS on Tuesday which seems reasonable as the trough starts to deepen to the northwest. Did slow pops down slightly on Tuesday, with best chances of showers and thunderstorms focused on Tuesday night. Highs on Tuesday should reach the low to mid 60s ahead of the system, then be noticeably cooler for Wednesday. There is a somewhat high amount of spread among the models with respect to the cooler 850mb temperatures behind the front on Wednesday. Trended highs down slightly and expect some of the eastern sites may not make it out of the 40s. Temperatures will likely trend at least slightly warmer for Thursday but will depend on how fast the upper trough departs to the east.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
Quick-moving batch of rain and thunder along or just ahead of a cold front is quickly approaching from the west and will slide through over the next several hours. VFR continues until this activity arrives at a given terminal. Some vsby restrictions and lightning possible with this activity, especially at TOL, FDY and MFD, though can't rule out at CLE, CAK and YNG either.
Ceilings won't dramatically fall until the cold front moves through this morning, generally as the batch of rain is exiting.
Much of the area has potential to see brief IFR ceilings right behind the cold front. Everyone will return to VFR from northwest to southeast Friday afternoon.

Light mainly south-southeast winds at 4-10 knots ahead of the cold front this morning, shifting south-southwest and then west-northwest with the frontal passage. Winds will increase to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots behind the front before gradually subsiding into this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers Tuesday.

MARINE
Low pressure will track northeast across Lake Erie this morning with west northwest winds of 15-20 knots behind the front this morning, backing to more southwesterly this afternoon. Waves in the nearshore waters east of the Islands build to 2 to 4 feet with a few 5 footers possible for a brief window. A secondary cold front will cross the lake on Saturday bringing a more persistent west northwest wind of 15-25 knots and waves building to 3 to 6 feet on the east half of the lake. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for most of the day on Saturday. Beyond that, high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley Sunday through Monday. Winds will decrease from west to east on Sunday but some choppiness will continue on the east half of the lake. Waves should be 1 foot or less on Monday. Another low pressure system will cross Lake Erie bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms along with a cold front late Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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