Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bay Village, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
9:35 AM Update: The forecast for today is on track with mainly sunny skies across the area and quickly-warming temperatures. Highs are expected to climb to the lower 70s in Northwest PA and the mid to upper 70s across northern Ohio. The airmass today is very dry and afternoon RH values are expected to bottom out at 20-30%.
Wet fuels from recent rain and fairly light winds will preclude any notable fire weather concerns today.

Previous Discussion: The main concern for the short term period will be the potential for severe storms ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The most recent SPC SWODY2 outlook continues to highlight a wind-driven enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) for a portion of the area, generally along and east of the I-71 corridor with a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) elsewhere. Other hazards, including large hail and a tornado or two, also remain possible, though confidence is lower on these threats materializing. There remains some uncertainty on timing, though it appears that most models in the HRRR suite (excluding the NAM 3km) suggest a cluster of storms to enter the area from the west around 2 to 3 PM, and exit to the east around 7 to 8 PM.

In terms of the forecast, model guidance continues to indicate the development of an elevated mixed layer across the Central Plains, with a plume of mid- level lapse rates around 7 C/km expected to arrive into the Great Lakes region immediately following a warm frontal passage late tonight into early Tuesday morning. In response, MLCAPE will increase to around 1500 J/kg by Tuesday afternoon with west bulk shear vectors around 40 to perhaps 45 knots closer to Lake Erie. The recent 0Z HRRR guidance contains a concerning damaging wind signal across northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania, with several models suggesting wind gusts in excess of 60 mph associated with thunderstorm clusters.

As mentioned above, there remains uncertainty in the forecast, particularly related to timing and location of thunderstorm initiation. HRRR paintball plots indicate convective debris originating from the Southern Plains Monday night may arrive northeast into Indiana Tuesday morning, aided by a 700 mb jet.
Will need to especially monitor timing trends of this feature, as any faster momentum will likely limit the degree of instability across the region and thus, result in lower severe weather chances overall. There may be some shower and/or thunderstorm activity along the cold front Tuesday evening (see NAM 3km), though think any severe weather chances will originate from this pre-frontal convection.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Lingering convection is forecast to quickly exit to the southeast on Tuesday night ahead of the cold front. The shallow front only reaches southern Ohio before stalling as flow remains out of the southwest above 850mb. A pretty good gradient in temperatures is expected from north to south behind the front on Wednesday with far northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania only reaching the upper 50s while southern portions of the forecast area remain in the upper 60s. The daytime hours on Wednesday will likely be dry before the warm front lifts back north on Wednesday night. Models are showing a pretty good signal for overrunning on Wednesday night and highest pops are focused towards NW Ohio, but do extend all the way east across the area overnight. Have also included a low chance of thunderstorms with support from a 30-40 knot low level jet.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The long term starts off with active weather as an upper level trough lifts out of the Plains towards the Great Lakes Region.
Deepening surface low pressure will track from the Mid-Mississippi Valley across Southeast Lower Michigan by Thursday night. The warm front will be draped somewhere across the area on Thursday morning before lifting north and leaving us in the warm sector. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s although coverage of clouds and showers will impact the actual highs. In addition, dewpoints are forecast to be near 60 degrees with 400-800 J/kg of surface based CAPE. Shear could be fairly strong as the low tracks just northwest of the forecast area and could be enhanced if the warm front is still overhead. Still a lot of uncertainty with convection on Thursday but may need to be monitored for both strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

The initial push of cold air behind the front only drops highs back into the 60s for Friday. However a stronger upper level trough pushes south out of Canada on Friday, pushing another cold front south across the area Friday evening. A chance of thunderstorms remains in the east ahead of this compact upper trough swinging across the region. The trough axis shifts east quickly on Saturday with surface high pressure building east through the Ohio Valley for the weekend. Temperatures will start off cool on Saturday morning with below normal temperatures. Clouds will clear by Sunday giving way to seasonal temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/
VFR will continue through most of the TAF period. Mid-level clouds and showers associated with decaying convection from the west will spread in Tuesday morning. There is some low risk for brief vsby restrictions or some lightning to accompany this activity after 12z if it holds together longer than expected, though only included VCSH in the TAFs as confidence in that is <30%. As a cold front presses in towards the late afternoon and evening on Tuesday, thunderstorm development is possible along it. However, confidence in this is also on the lower side due to the expectation of earlier day clouds and perhaps showers.
Still, included a PROB30 for a few hours in the CLE TAF to give an idea of possible timing, with confidence in impacts to the terminal greater than 30% but currently below 50%.

Southerly winds at 6-12kt this afternoon, with some variability at ERI as a lake breeze tries (but likely struggles) to push onshore. A few gusts to around 20kt at TOL and FDY this afternoon. Winds remain southerly tonight, with low-level wind shear developing as 45-50kt southwesterly low-level jet spreads overhead. By 13z Tuesday, the surface will begin warming, ending the LLWS threat and introducing a surface gust threat, with south-southwest winds increasing to 15-20kt with gusts 25-35kt.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday evening. Non-VFR appears more likely towards the end of the week (Thu/Fri) in more widespread showers and thunderstorms

MARINE
Good marine conditions are expected today with winds of 10 knots or less through 6 PM. Important to remember that water temperatures remain cold in the upper 40s to low 50s despite warming air temperatures. A lake breeze will try to develop east of Vermilion but will struggle to push very far inland. South/southwest Winds increase to 15-25 knots late tonight as a warm front lifts north across Lake Erie. The elevated winds will continue through Tuesday, eventually shifting to the northwest Tuesday night behind a cold front. Winds on Lake Erie may be erratic at times on Tuesday with the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms. A Small Craft Advisory is likely to be needed east of Cleveland for a few hours Tuesday night but could be needed as early as Monday night if the offshore flow is strong enough.

Winds decrease by Wednesday as high pressure builds east across the Great Lakes. Another deepening area of low pressure tracks northeast through the Central Great Lakes on Thursday. The initial cold front on Thursday night is not that strong but a stronger front arrives Friday night and could potentially need a Small Crafts Advisory to end the week. Conditions are expected to improve rather quickly as high pressure builds in for the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.