Tuesday, October19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood Forest, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:02PM Tuesday October 19, 2021 3:37 PM CDT (20:37 UTC) Moonrise 5:56PMMoonset 5:55AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ744 Expires:202110200315;;942848 Fzus53 Klot 191944 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 244 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 19 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz743>745-200315- Calumet Harbor To Gary-gary To Burns Harbor- Burns Harbor To Michigan City- 244 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 19 2021
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 kt becoming northwest 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Chance of showers through the day. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
LMZ744


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood Forest, IN
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location: 41.48, -87.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 191958 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 258 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

SHORT TERM. 222 PM CDT

Through Wednesday night .

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows vigorous closed low over the central Rockies. This feature is progged to move eastward and across our area tomorrow afternoon through early Thursday morning and will be the focus our the short term forecast.

Modest west-westerly low level jet will develop tonight and advect moisture eastward into the region. The low-mid level theta-e advection beneath some fairly steep lapse rates should allow for an ACCAS deck to develop tonight. Forecast soundings suggest the depth of the convective cloud layer will be too shallow to support much more than virga or perhaps some sprinkles later this evening into the first part of the overnight hours.

Not much has changed in thinking from yesterday, with still a narrow ribbon of shallow moisture with air mass mostly recycled continental air as return flow the Gulf of Mexico is stunted by ridge across the southeast. Plume of steep mid level lapse rates/elevated mixed layer (EML) will provide for conditional instability, but guidance strongly suggests that moisture/forcing will be insufficient to overcome strong capping inversion at base of the EML for surface based convection. Could see some elevated showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms develop near the front and ahead of the strong DCVA in advance of the deep closed mid-upper level low. If elevated thunderstorms do develop, the higher bases should result in weaker effective shear and given only weak instability, severe weather appears unlikely. In the wake of the front, we could see some scattered showers rotating around the back side of the upper low affect mainly our northern CWA later Wednesday night.

- Izzi

LONG TERM. 231 PM CDT

Thursday through Tuesday .

The pattern through the extended looks fairly progressive with multiple upper waves traversing across the CONUS. The closed upper low and associated surface low expected to bring showers and storms on Wednesday will be in the process of exiting the region to our east Thursday morning. A few lingering cold advective showers on the back side of the low will still be possible through the first half of the day. A reinforcing cold front pushes through the area bringing breezy north northwest winds. Thanks to the frontal passage, temperatures are expected to cool to slightly below normal overnight. Do think that lingering cloud cover and winds will limit some of the cooling, however, which should also help prevent frost development in our far northwest.

On Friday, temperatures will be near normal to slightly below normal with highs in the mid to upper 50s. A subsequent upper level shortwave moves across the Great Lakes bringing an increase in cloud cover. Moisture in the low and mid levels will be lacking which should keep precipitation chances to a minimum. Temperatures Friday night could dip down into the 30s across interior northern Illinois. There remain some timing differences with when the bulk of cloud cover moves out of the area but felt comfortable including at least a patchy frost mention late Friday night into Saturday morning. If skies are able to fully clear out we could see more widespread frost.

The weekend will begin quiet on Saturday but heading into Sunday another upper wave moves through the area bringing our next chance for showers. Behind the departing wave, precipitation comes to an end by Monday morning with an upper wave digging across the west/central CONUS. Out ahead of this trough the upper ridge responds by amplifying over the Upper Mississippi Valley which could bring well above average temperatures back to the region on Tuesday.

Petr

AVIATION. For the 18Z TAFs .

While there could be a few gusts in the mid-upper teen knots this afternoon, generally expecting south to southwest winds 5-10 kt through the TAF cycle. Some increase in a mid deck is expected tonight with perhaps some virga or a sprinkle overnight, but overall looks too dry for precipitation. Wednesday afternoon there is a small chance for isolated SHRA or even TSRA, but chances appear quite low at the terminals and have kept TAFs dry at this time.

- Izzi

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 12 mi58 min S 8G9.9 70°F 1019 hPa
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 20 mi38 min SSW 11G12 69°F 1018.4 hPa (-1.3)45°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 29 mi56 min SSE 11G13 1016.9 hPa
JAKI2 32 mi98 min SSW 7G14 71°F
CNII2 37 mi23 min S 7G14 70°F 40°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 39 mi38 min S 13G14 70°F 45°F
OKSI2 40 mi98 min E 1.9G2.9 71°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 43 mi28 min SW 3.9G5.8 67°F 65°F1 ft1018.6 hPa55°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN6 mi42 minSSW 1010.00 miFair69°F42°F38%1019.1 hPa
Gary Regional Airport, IN19 mi53 minSSW 1510.00 miFair72°F43°F36%1018.6 hPa
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN22 mi43 minSSW 910.00 miFair68°F45°F43%1019 hPa
Lansing Municipal Airport, IL23 mi43 minS 1110.00 miFair69°F46°F43%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPZ

Wind History from VPZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W500000S300S3SW3SW3SW4SW4SW4SW4SW5SW5S6S8SW10SW10SW10
1 day agoNW8
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W9W5W30W30W3SW3NW3W3W5W4W40SW4SW4W3SW4SW6SW6SW7W6W6
2 days agoW12
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W11W8W7W5W6W7W7W6W7W6W5W6W6SW4SW5W6W7W5W4NW6NW12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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