Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood Forest, IN

Version 3.4
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12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:55PM Friday January 24, 2020 11:08 AM CST (17:08 UTC) Moonrise 8:10AMMoonset 5:43PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ744 Expires:202001242215;;446937 Fzus53 Klot 241541 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 941 Am Cst Fri Jan 24 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz743>745-242215- Calumet Harbor To Gary-gary To Burns Harbor- Burns Harbor To Michigan City- 941 Am Cst Fri Jan 24 2020
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 pm cst this evening...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Areas of fog, at times dense. Drizzle. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 kt early becoming southwest 10 to 15 kt by mid evening. Rain changing to snow by midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Rain and snow likely. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of rain and snow in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Wave forecast is for ice free areas
LMZ744


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood Forest, IN
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location: 41.48, -87.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 241127 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 527 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

SHORT TERM. 334 AM CST

Through Saturday .

The continued focus during the short term portion of this forecast remains on the culmination/wrap-up period to this rather extended wintry episode. Overnight trends in numerical guidance supports what appears to be an increasing potential for a potentially more impactful period of snowfall later today and into tonight and Saturday morning.

Moisture channel satellite imagery early this morning is pretty chaotic (although quite intriguing), with lots of little swirls/vort lobes drifting around within a larger neutrally- tilted trough axis immediately off to our west. The main feature of interest is a potent and fairly wound-up vort max which is translating now just north of due eastward across the Arkansas/Missouri state line. High and coarse-resolution guidance alike remain in very good agreement regarding the synoptic-scale progression of this main mid-level (500 mb) feature through Saturday afternoon, yet the finer-scale details such as the spatio-temporal evolution of enhanced large scale forcing for ascent and subsequent responses to already marginal thermal profiles in the lower-levels remains in flux and is still a bit nebulous at this time. As is normally the case with closed and cold upper lows--you never quite know what you're going to get, and surprises are a distinct possibility.

/Through This Morning and Early Afternoon . /

Dual polarization radar data (specifically correlation coefficient) depict the rain/snow transition line has shifted to near a Rochelle to Waukegan line early this Friday morning, and is corroborated nicely by recent mPing and surface observation reports. Have shoved the rain area a bit farther to the northwest, with potentially all liquid precipitation developing area-wide by mid-late morning as warm advection continues around 925 mb.

Webcams show snow/slush covered roadways near the Rockford area where light snowfall has been more prevalent. Will message slick roadways in the I-39 corridor vicinity this morning as a result, but snow will likely be mixing with or changing to rain shortly.

Moisture channel imagery shows that the mid-level dry slot is making quick northward progress, and looks set to blast pretty much through my entire CWA through the morning hours. As a result, have trended precipitation types to drizzle from mid-morning through the mid-afternoon. Am also concerned we may have to contend with a period of dense fog with plentiful lingering low- level moisture and rapidly slackening winds in the lowest 3 km. Seeing lots of sub-1 mile visibilities popping up to our south, so will be monitoring these trends closely over the next several hours.

/Late This Afternoon through Saturday . /

The main period that we're monitoring for potentially more impactful bout of wintry weather is later this afternoon, but really into the evening/overnight hours as the main mid-level vort max makes its closest approach to our region. The trend in overnight model guidance has been towards a potentially snowier solution during this timeframe as fairly robust large scale forcing for ascent begins to interact with an atmospheric column characterized by rapidly decreasing static stability. That said, confidence is not as high as it would typically be at these ranges as we'll relying a good deal on the effects of dynamic cooling to get the column cold enough to support snow which should effectively "blossom" out of an initially innocuous area of light rain or rain/snow mix later this afternoon and evening. In addition, trying to pinpoint potential heavier deformation-induced axes of snowfall is notoriously fickle, and so we'll be casting a somewhat wider net here to account for a range of plausible scenarios. Adding to the uncertainty is the deterministic GFS, which continues to advertise the presence of a fairly expansive "moat" of just-above-freezing air near and under 925 mb surrounding the main circulation center which results in enough positive energy to keep things as a cold rain throughout the duration of this period. The GFS continues to be towards the warmest of the available guidance suite in this regard and, in general, continues to be largely discounted in favor of a cooler multi-model consensus given the recent trends of it being notably too warm.

With all of the uncertainties laid out, we have elected to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory for essentially near and north of the I-80 corridor from early this evening through Saturday evening based on the latest multi-model consensus (sans the GFS) early this morning. Have a feeling that the latest hi-res guidance such as the HRRR and RAP may be a bit too slow to flip things over from rain to snow this evening given the degree of dynamics at play, so have elected to start the Advisory at 6 PM as a first guess. We actually tossed around the idea of hoisting a Winter Storm Watch given the developing signal for snowfall to persist a bit longer than in previous forecasts--through Saturday afternoon and even into the evening hours as the entire system begins to take on a slight negative tilt as it crosses the lake--allowing for even more time for snowfall to accumulate. However, given the anticipation of the heaviest snow occurring later overnight Friday into Saturday morning and a signal that isn't quite coherent enough for widespread 5-6+ inch amounts, opted to issue an Advisory instead but will be mentioning the potential for some localized over performance with this event. Cross sections through the developing TROWAL later this evening reveal lapse rates upstairs approaching 8.5 C/km immediately near and above 600 mb, which will support the rapid development of moderate to at times heavy snowfall through the evening hours. Latest guidance indicates exceptional vertical motions materializing through a 1000+ m dendritic growth zone this evening. This, combined with a developing deep isothermal layer just under freezing with light winds through the column supports the potential for some large aggregated dendrites, possibly helping to hoist snowfall ratios closer to 10:1 overnight.

Have expanding PoPs through Saturday as well based on the aforementioned evolution of the parent mid-level trough axis and fairly good agreement in at least light snowfall persisting a bit longer than previously forecast. That said, things should wind down in the intensity department through the afternoon hours.

Carlaw

LONG TERM. 217 AM CST

Saturday night through Thursday .

At the start of the period Saturday evening, our slow moving upper level low is expected to be centered somewhere over lower Michigan, before it shifts eastward over New England during the day Sunday. Because of its slow movement, some lingering light snow will be possible over the area Saturday evening. We will also have to keep an eye on the potently for any light drizzle or freezing drizzle Saturday night as drier air moves over the area aloft. I certainly do not have a degree of confidence that there will be much in the way of freezing drizzle Saturday night, especially since surface temperatures are likely to continue to hover right around 32. For this reason, I have kept the mention out of the forecast.

We could also see another light batch of light snow or flurries on Sunday as a weak mid level disturbance tries to drop southward over the area on the far western periphery of the upper low. However, given some model disagreements on this feature, I have opted to keep this small mention out of the forecast as well, since it would likely not cause much of any impacts. Otherwise, expect temperatures Sunday to remain in the low to mid 30s under mainly cloudy skies.

A period of dry weather looks on tap early next week, but another weak weather disturbance could produce another period of light rain and snow over the area around midweek. But with no real good push of colder air with these Pacific systems, expect temperatures to remain on the warm side of average, with highs mainly in the 30s.

Later in the week, there is the potential to have a bit more active weather pattern across the region as additional disturbances of Pacific origin take aim on the area. As a result, more inclement weather, with some rain and snow chances will be possible over the area at the end of the current forecast period.

KJB

AVIATION. For the 12Z TAFs .

A slow moving storm system will continue to impact the weather across the region through the entire TAF period. The primary weather concerns during the day today will be low CIGs and VSBYs in fog and drizzle. Then beginning this evening, the main focus shifts to the increasing potential for some moderate to at least briefly heavy snow across northern IL.

CIGS have already dropped to 300-500 feet across the terminals, and I see no reason why conditions will improve at all today. VSBYs have also dropped into the 1 to 3 mile range at the terminals. Overall, it looks to be a rather soupy day across the area today as a surface low shifts overhead. This should result in light and variable winds across the eastern terminals this afternoon, along with low VSBYs in fog and drizzle, potentially below a mile in some areas.

Another period of snow is expected to develop over northern IL by early this evening and this is likely to impact most of the terminals. Because the snow could fall at a moderate to heavy clip from mid evening and into the overnight hours, several inches of accumulation are possible, along with LIFR to VLIFR VSBYs. For the 12z tafs I have hit the lower visibilities (down to a half mile) in snow as tempo groups. The snow should tapper off to a lighter intensity into Saturday morning, but low CIGs are likely to continue.

KJB

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . Winter Weather Advisory . ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008- ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021- ILZ022 . 6 PM Friday to midnight Sunday.

IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 20 mi49 min ESE 8 G 8.9 38°F 36°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 29 mi51 min E 2.9 G 4.1 35°F 1010.8 hPa35°F
CNII2 37 mi39 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 35°F 34°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 39 mi49 min ESE 7 G 8 36°F 36°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN6 mi73 minE 50.50 miFog37°F35°F93%1012 hPa
Gary Regional Airport, IN19 mi24 minSE 30.50 miFog39°F39°F100%1011.2 hPa
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN22 mi14 minN 03.00 miLight Rain36°F35°F100%1011.5 hPa
Lansing Municipal Airport, IL23 mi14 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist38°F37°F100%1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPZ

Wind History from VPZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S6S7S9SE4E3E8E3E6E5SE7E7E9E11E10E9E7E7E6E7E6E5E5E5
1 day agoS13
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S9S11S10S7S6S7S10S8S8S6S9S7S7S7S5S9S9SE7CalmE3SE7S10S8
2 days agoSW8SW7SW9SW9SW8SW6S4S6S6S6S6S6S6S7S8S7S7S7S7S10S10S13S13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.