Monday, January18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood Forest, IN

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:48PM Monday January 18, 2021 8:17 PM CST (02:17 UTC) Moonrise 11:31AMMoonset 11:40PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ744 Expires:202101190430;;123105 Fzus53 Klot 182050 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 250 Pm Cst Mon Jan 18 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz743>745-190430- Calumet Harbor To Gary-gary To Burns Harbor- Burns Harbor To Michigan City- 250 Pm Cst Mon Jan 18 2021
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 25 kt. Snow likely through the night. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ744


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood Forest, IN
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location: 41.48, -87.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 190001 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 601 PM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

SHORT TERM. 314 PM CST

Through Tuesday night .

A weak upper level wave is exiting our CWA to the east after creating flurries and areas of light snow earlier this morning as seen in the water vapor channel. The RAP depicted this area of snow nicely with its 700 mb vorticity, but most models' reflectivity/PoPs did not handle the area well, with the exception of the 18/06Z ECMWF, which was used initially for PoPs. We'll hold onto some additional flurry chances this afternoon across northeast Illinois. As this wave exits, skies are starting to clear out over most of Iowa, and this clearing may push into our region this evening and overnight. It's still a bit unclear just how far east this clearing will push, with re-development on the western flanks possible with some lingering subtle low-level warm advection. If skies do clear, the presence of upstream dewpoint temperatures in the teens and snow covered ground would lead to some fairly cool low temperatures and the potential for fog. With just a hint of wind off the deck, don't think a widespread dense fog threat exists, but have elected to introduce a mention of some patchy fog near our I-39 locales. Big question mark on the low temperatures as a result of all this as well, but it seems likely that are typical cool spots out west could fall pretty quickly into the lower teens tonight.

The break in clouds will be short-lived with the approach of our next weather system Tuesday afternoon. Continued to side with the ECMWF once again to depict this system, with strong agreement noted among its ensemble counterparts. The deterministic GFS and incoming early-afternoon hi-res guidance remains a bit farther south, but the GFS ensemble paints a picture more similar to the EPS/ECMWF. This clipper will initially create snow flurries in mid-afternoon Tuesday, possibly transitioning to some bonafide light snow during the late afternoon, with more widespread light activity developing in the early evening as the column becomes more saturated up to 700 mb. Cold temperatures aloft and forcing through the DGZ should support higher ratio snow. Current forecast depicts a broad area of dusting to 1 inch amounts at this time. This clipper will move through quickly, with snow ending early morning Wednesday, and clouds expected to also depart quickly west to east, leading to possible areas of freezing fog, especially for the western counties. With clouds in place most of the night, temperatures will not be as low as Tuesday morning, but cold air advection behind the clipper will still create conditions for lows in the teens throughout the CWA Wednesday morning.

BKL/Carlaw

LONG TERM.

Wednesday through Monday .

212 PM . Main forecast concerns include .

Strong/gusty southwesterly winds Wednesday afternoon/evening. A period of colder temps Thursday night through Saturday morning. An unsettled pattern Sunday/Monday with a wintry mix possible.

A ridge of high pressure will be shifting east of the area Wednesday morning as strong low pressure moves across Ontario into Wednesday night. The gradient will quickly tighten by Wednesday afternoon with southwesterly winds possibly gusting into the 30-35 mph range by late afternoon and these stronger winds may continue into early/mid evening. High temps have the potential to warm well into the 30s but how warm temps reach is somewhat uncertain given lows likely starting in the teens across much of the area. Temps may hold steady in the lower 30s Wednesday night with highs on Thursday likely back into the mid/upper 30s with perhaps some areas tagging 40.

A strong cold front is expected to move across the area Thursday evening bringing with it quite a bit more colder air. Lows by Friday morning will likely be in the teens across much of the area. Low confidence for how much highs will rebound on Friday, though 20s is possible. Then high pressure settles across the area Friday night with likely clear skies to start, perhaps some increase in clouds Saturday morning. This should allow temps to tank Friday evening and single digits seem on track for much of north central and northwest IL. Have maintained the previous forecast low temps for Friday night/Saturday morning but these are warmer then the newest mex guidance temps. The light winds should limit wind chills which based on current trends reach the -5 to +5 range by Saturday morning.

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty regarding a storm system that may affect the area Sunday into Monday next week but there are some trends emerging that have been somewhat consistent run to run and in some cases . model to model. A wave appears to move out of the Rockies Saturday/Saturday night reaching the western Great Lakes by Sunday morning. This is seen on all of the models with a band of most likely snow spreading across the region. The local area may stay on the south end of this wave's precipitation. Despite these trends, confidence remains low but an accumulating snow during this time period will certainly need to be watched.

Enough warm air looks to arrive on Sunday that if any precip is ongoing, it would likely transition to some kind of wintry mix. By this time period, current model differences make for a challenging forecast, which may continue to remain challenging given the proximity to a wintry mix. But the trend of a surface low developing across the southern Plains and lifting northeast to the southern Great Lakes or Ohio Valley continues. A further south track would increase the odds of accumulating snow and/or a wintry mix while a further north track would allow for more liquid rain across the area but with precipitable water values approaching 0.75 to 1 inch in the warm sector, a warmer solution could lead to periods of moderate/heavy rain. cms

AVIATION. For the 00Z TAFs .

MVFR clouds will clear from west to east across northern Illinois this evening, leading to VFR conditions through Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, winds will remain between WSW and WNW at around 10 knots.

Two compact mid-level waves in the northern Plains early this evening will track southeast into the region late Tuesday morning into mid-evening. The main message is that there is a high likelihood of -SN with at least MVFR visibility for several hours during this time, but it remains unclear which of these systems will be the dominant precipitation producer. Model and upstream observation trends are beginning to suggest that the first wave during the early to mid afternoon may bring the best chance of snow versus the second wave during the late afternoon and early evening. Until those trends become more established this evening, will main consistency with highlighting the second wave with prevailing -SN and introducing a PROB30 for the first wave. However, if both systems are active, a prolonged period of -SN with MVFR to VFR visibility would be expected.

Kluber

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 12 mi38 min W 8.9 G 11 29°F 1016.9 hPa
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 20 mi28 min WSW 18 G 21 28°F 20°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 29 mi48 min WSW 8 G 15 27°F 1015.8 hPa19°F
CNII2 37 mi18 min WNW 12 G 13 27°F 18°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 39 mi28 min WNW 18 G 20 27°F 22°F
OKSI2 40 mi78 min NNW 6 G 9.9 29°F
FSTI2 45 mi78 min 27°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN6 mi22 minW 1310.00 miOvercast26°F18°F71%1017.6 hPa
Gary Regional Airport, IN19 mi33 minW 1010.00 miOvercast28°F19°F69%1017.3 hPa
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN22 mi23 minW 610.00 miOvercast28°F21°F74%1016.6 hPa
Lansing Municipal Airport, IL23 mi23 minW 1110.00 miOvercast27°F18°F69%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPZ

Wind History from VPZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W8NW7W9W10W8W7W9SW5W10SW8SW7SW8SW6SW7SW10W10W11W9W12W16W12W15W13
1 day agoW8W7W8W8W8W6W10SW5W6W5SW6W8W8SW7SW10W9SW10W11W9W10SW7SW10SW9SW6
2 days agoSW5SW6SW4W4SW5SW6SW6SW7SW9SW8S7SW7SW8SW8SW6W9W11NW12NW11
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.