Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood Forest, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:21PM Thursday July 16, 2020 8:37 AM CDT (13:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:02AMMoonset 4:50PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ744 Expires:202007161515;;926584 Fzus53 Klot 160854 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 354 Am Cdt Thu Jul 16 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz743>745-161515- Calumet Harbor To Gary-gary To Burns Harbor- Burns Harbor To Michigan City- 354 Am Cdt Thu Jul 16 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until noon cdt today...
Today..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north at 15 to 20 kt this morning, then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Slight chance of showers early in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft late in the morning, then subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds around 10 kt early in the evening, becoming southwest at 5 to 10 kt. Mostly clear. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..South winds around 10 kt. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 ft.
LMZ744


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood Forest, IN
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location: 41.48, -87.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 161157 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 657 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SHORT TERM. 340 AM CDT

Through Friday night .

Early morning GOES vapor imagery indicates convectively enhanced mid- level short wave trough axis moving just east of the cwa early this morning, with its surface low pressure reflection centered near Lafayette IN at 2 am. Radar depicts lingering light precipitation across far northeast IL and northwest IN, in a region of low level convergence and weak frontogenetic forcing just north of the surface low. The trend has been for a steady weakening of this lighter rain over the past few hours, and this should continue as the forcing associated with the wave moves off to the east. Subsidence will develop across the area this morning as weak short wave riding develops in the wake of the trough, with weak surface high pressure spreading into the forecast area from the west through this afternoon. While precipitation is exiting, moist boundary layer conditions have allowed for the development of somewhat extensive low clouds across parts of the area overnight, and partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this morning. Some decrease in cloud cover is likely by afternoon, though with a cumulus field lingering inland of the lake breeze. With the relatively well developed surface low pulling slowly away from the area this morning, breezy northeast winds will linger for a time, but will diminish and back northwest this afternoon except along the Lake Michigan shore where a lake breeze should keep an onshore component in place. With winds initially gusting over 25 mph along the lake early this morning, and waves around 5 feet currently, will need to extend our beach hazard statement through the remainder of the morning before waves settle down. Onshore winds should also limit highs to the upper 70s along the shore, but should reach low to mid 80s inland as sun becomes more plentiful this afternoon.

Surface high spreads across the area tonight, with light/calm winds and clear to partly cloudy skies setting up decent radiational cooling conditions. Areas which saw heavier rainfall Wednesday afternoon and evening could see some fog develop overnight, especially across our southern counties where the greatest rainfall amounts have occurred. The surface ridge then drifts east of the area Friday, with winds turning south and ramping up warm advection. Some guidance solutions depict a minor amplitude short wave approaching the region Friday afternoon, though the focus for any precip/thunderstorm looks to remain west/southwest of the area through the day, tied to the returning warm front across IA/MO and far downstate IL, with only some high clouds from upstream convection expected. Low level (925-850 mb) forecast thermal fields support highs mainly in the upper 80s Friday afternoon, with perhaps a couple of 90s in the warmest spots. South winds will generally keep lakeshore cooling to a minimum, and mainly along the north shore north of Chicago where a slight southeast wind will provide some cooling near the lakefront.

A more amplified short wave is progged to transit the upper Midwest Friday night, with potential MCS development across MN/WI and northeast IA. Some guidance indicates convection could develop east- southeast into northern IL after midnight/toward Saturday morning, and will maintain some low chance pops mainly across north central IL for that. It will be a warmer and muggier night, as south winds bring moisture back into the area with the warm front developing northeastward across the cwa. Lows likely won't dip below 70 in most spots, with mid-70s likely in the more urban Chicago metro sites.

Ratzer

LONG TERM. 344 AM CDT

Saturday through Wednesday .

The primary focus through the extended forecast remains the hot and humid weather this weekend (with some caveats) and the trend toward a more active pattern early next week.

Looking at the big picture, the upper level ridge is expected to lift north of the Great Lakes into this weekend with a shortwave moving across the high plains. As this wave translates east it merges back into the upper flow as the jet elongates becoming more quasi-zonal. This would place us in a "Ring of Fire"-like pattern just south of the upper jet providing multiple chances for precip/MCSs through at least the early part of next week.

Saturday still looks hot and humid across the entire forecast area. Southerly flow that sets up Friday is expected to continue into Saturday allowing for ample warm air and moisture advection into the area. This should help temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s. This combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s could result in dangerous heat with heat indices nearing 105+ degrees. A subtle wave will be progressing overhead early Saturday morning, with the ECMWF suggesting precip may try to drop south across the area in the morning which could complicate the temperature forecast somewhat due to any lingering cool pool/outflow influences. Despite this, cannot ignore the signal for potentially dangerous heat so will continue to message this potential. Warm temperatures in the mid levels should also help limit any diurnal storms from developing in the afternoon.

Sunday could shape up to be similar to Saturday, albeit with a better signal for convective influences disrupting the peak heating as another wave moves through in the morning hours. Highs still should generally reach into the low 90s. Winds turn northerly behind front on Sunday night into Monday with increased showers/thunderstorm chances.

Monday through Wednesday: As noted earlier, with a potential Ring of Fire pattern setting up would supports multiple thunderstorm/MCS chances through midweek. All periods currently contain at least chance PoPs due to model variability in timing and location of the various potential MCS complexes; however, am not expecting precip/tstorms the entire time as there will be multiple dry periods. Will hopefully be able to narrow down these times as the pattern and more specific features become better captured by the models as it gets closer. Overall, temperatures look to be cooler than this weekend thanks to the ridge sinking south slightly, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Petr

AVIATION. For the 12Z TAFs .

Patchy drizzle has developed across the area this morning resulting in occasional reduced visibilities to as low as 2 SM with MVFR and patchy IFR cigs. Have added a TEMPO group through 13Z to account for this. The drizzle is expected to diminish in coverage this morning. Ceiling trends will also be on the increase through the day and should clear out by late afternoon.

Northerly winds will be gusty at times through early afternoon, then turning more northeasterly for the Chicago area terminals with the passage of the lake breeze. There is some uncertainty as to when this pushes through the terminals and may need slight adjustment with later TAF updates. Expect winds to become light and variable by this evening as the surface high moves over the area then becoming southwesterly heading into the day on Friday.

Petr

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . Beach Hazards Statement . ILZ006-ILZ103-ILZ104 until noon Thursday.

IN . Beach Hazards Statement . INZ001-INZ002 until noon Thursday.

LM . Small Craft Advisory . nearshore waters until noon Thursday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45170 20 mi28 min 16 G 19 72°F 76°F3 ft70°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 20 mi38 min N 19 G 20 71°F 69°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 29 mi68 min NNW 11 G 16
CNII2 37 mi23 min N 13 G 14 71°F 65°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 39 mi38 min N 18 G 20 71°F 69°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN6 mi42 minNW 44.00 miFog/Mist71°F70°F96%1013.9 hPa
Gary Regional Airport, IN19 mi53 minN 157.00 miOvercast72°F71°F100%1014.9 hPa
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN22 mi43 minNNW 55.00 miOvercast with Haze0°F0°F%1014.2 hPa
Lansing Municipal Airport, IL23 mi43 minNNW 93.00 miDrizzle69°F68°F99%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPZ

Wind History from VPZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6S8S8S6S5S7S5SE4SE3CalmNE4CalmE5E115
G18
E9NE7E7E9NE5NE4NE3N4NW4
1 day agoS54SW54CalmSE7S7S7S7S8S5S4S4CalmCalmS5CalmSE6S6S6S5CalmSE35
2 days agoNE6N7N6N5N6N8N6N6N5NE6NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.