Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Newburgh, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1. Dense fog across a portion of the forecast waters into late tonight.

2. Mainly dry and mild with elevated fire weather concerns for portions of the area Saturday.

3. Noticeably warmer next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A stratus deck has remained over the ocean waters east of Fire Island Island, and has begun to spread north and west with daytime heating beginning to weaken. The HRRR shows the deck spreading into the Long Island south shore bays, early this evening, and then into the Long Island eastern bays and eastern Long Island Sound an hour or two later. Nearshore cameras show lowered visibilities, likely 1NM or less, along the eastern south shore. Based on the cameras and HRRR forecast have posted a Marine Dense Fog Advisory until late this evening for the Long Island south shore bays and from Fire Island Inlet to Moriches Inlet, and into the overnight east of Moriches Inlet, the eastern Long Island bays and eastern Long Island Sound.
Conditions improve as the flow becomes southwest to west with the approach and passage of a cold front.


KEY MESSAGE 2
An amplifying shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast tonight will send a cold front across the area by daybreak. Expect some scattered showers associated with the front and little if any rainfall. Any rain likely doesn't move into far western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley until around 10 pm, exiting far eastern areas by daybreak. Keep low chances down to the coast based on latest CAMs. NBM seems a bit underdone.

More importantly, a drier airmass with gusty NW winds will work into the area behind the front on Saturday. Most locations will get up to around 60, which is cooler for inland locations, but warmer for much of the coast due to the offshore flow. The combination of minimum RH values around 30 percent, gusty winds, and dry fine fuels will enhance the threat of wildfire spread. Used NBM10/25 blend for dew points and NBM90 for wind/wind gusts due to it past performance in well-mixed NW flow. In collaboration with state land managers, a special weather statement was issued for the NY forecast zones.

Winds will diminish toward evening Saturday as high pressure builds into the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, then offshore in the afternoon. A return flow off the ocean will keep temperatures from getting out of the 50s on Sunday.


KEY MESSAGE 3
A noticeable warmup is still on track for next week as overnight lows and daytime highs will be at least 10 degrees to as much as just over 20 degrees above normal, with the warmest day expected Wednesday. Upper ridging will be in place with nearly zonal flow Monday into Tuesday, with re enforcing ridging Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures during Wednesday may peak as high as 16C to 18C with inland temperatures potentially reaching into the mid 80s. With this consistent trend have gone a couple of degrees higher than the deterministic NBM for highs Wednesday. Inland areas will be the warmest as the low level flow remains southwest, while coastal areas will be cooler, but still well above normal levels, with a southerly seas breeze influenced flow. Maximum apparent temperatures will be close to the air temperatures Tuesday through Thursday with dew points expected to ranges in the 50s, and mixing out during Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. A surface trough developing Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, along with sea breezes, may be the focus for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and into the evening with surface based instability and CAPE of a 100 to 300 J/kg. Dew points will lower Thursday behind a cold front which is expected to push through the region late Wednesday night into early Thursday, accompanied with showers and thunderstorms.
Next Friday is expected to the cooler behind the cold front, however, temperatures will still be 10 to near 15 degrees above normal. A few record high minimum temperatures may be tied or broken at the climate sites Tuesday, Wednesday.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A cold frontal passage occurs late tngt. High pres builds in from the W on Sat.

Mainly VFR thru the TAF period. Clouds off the ocean may bring in MVFR to ISP, but most likely stays E of the arpt so only included SCT010 for now. Otherwise. there could be a brief period of MVFR with any passing shwrs invof the cold front overnight. Prob30s and VCSH maintained in the TAFS mainly N and W of the NYC arpts.

Sea breeze flow this aftn. Strongest winds expected at JFK.
Flow weakens and becomes SW tngt ahead of the front, then NW behind the front. NW flow gusting to around 25kt on Sat.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

KJFK could have winds reach near 20 kt late in the afternoon with gusts near 30 kt possible for a brief time.

Variability in wind direction at EWR and TEB possible into this eve.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Rest of Saturday: VFR. NW winds gusting around 25kt, decreasing aft 22Z.

Sunday: VFR. SE winds 10-20kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR. SW winds gusting 20-25kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW wind gusts near 20kt.

Wednesday: VFR. NW winds 10-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for a portion of the forecast waters. See KEY MESSAGE 1.

Marginal SCA conditions are forecast on the ocean waters tonight into early Saturday afternoon. While the southerly flow this evening could briefly gust up to 25 kt, gusts will generally remain at or below 20 kt. Seas building to 4 to 6 ft will mainly be due to a long period easterly swell. NW winds on Saturday behind a cold front could gusts up to 25 kt near land, but much of the waters will see gusts less than 20 kt. High pressure then builds in Saturday night into Sunday morning with sub-SCA conditions.

A strengthening southerly flow could bring marginal SCA conditions to the ocean waters on Monday. Any on-going SCA conditions on the ocean waters early Monday night will be slowly subsiding through the night from west to east as southwesterly winds and gusts diminish as high pressure builds south of the forecast waters. Seas across the far eastern ocean waters may not fall below 5 feet until early Tuesday morning. Winds and seas then remain below advisory levels across the waters through Wednesday night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ332-340-350.
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.