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Marine Weather and Tides Newburgh, NY Version 3.4

NOTICE 8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it. 8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue. 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:01AM

Sunset 4:28PM

Monday November 30, 2020 11:37 AM EST (16:37 UTC)

Moonrise 5:46PM

Moonset 8:09AM

Illumination 100%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newburgh, NY

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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 301157 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 657 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. A deepening area of low pressure will approach from the southwest today before passing west of the area this evening. The low will meander across upstate New York on Tuesday before gradually lifting north into southeast Canada on Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure builds across the Middle Atlantic on Thursday. The next frontal system may impact the region Friday with potential for another wave of low pressure this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Updated temperatures and dew points over the next few hours as warm moist air has already started to surge northward into parts of the area.

A large area of low pressure emerging out of the Tennessee Valley this morning will deepen as it lifts north today, eventually passing west of the region this evening.

The primary threat with this system is the potential for strong gusty winds. 00Z models remain in good agreement with a strong low level jet crossing the area between 15-00Z, with 50-70 kt winds at 925 mb. While winds aloft will be strong, the lingering question is how much of these higher winds will be able to mix down to the surface, with model soundings indicating that the lowest 2000 ft of the atmosphere remains inverted through the afternoon. Expanded the Wind Advisory to include all of Brooklyn and Queens as well as the northern portions of New Haven, Middlesex, and New London counties in Connecticut as these locations seem to have the best potential for seeing strong gusty winds. The highest winds are expected across Long Island and southeastern Connecticut, closer to the core of the low of the low level jet. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts of 45-55 mph are expected across this part of the area. Farther west, gusts of 40-45 mph are possible for the New York City metro area, highest along far southern portions of Brooklyn and Queens. Gusts across interior portions of northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley will generally be in the 30-40 mph range.

In terms of precipitation, overrunning precip ahead of the warm front is expected to overspread the area from southwest to northeast after daybreak. In addition to PWs around 1.5 inches, which would be a record for the date, model soundings continue to indicate the potential for some elevated instability to develop during the afternoon. With this in mind, continued to mention the possibility of thunder during the afternoon, and with strong winds just off the surface, any storms that do develop will have the potential to mix these higher winds down. SPC continues to include the entire area in a Marginal Risk of severe weather. While a period of moderate to heavy rainfall is possible during the afternoon, flash flood guidance is relatively high, which should help mitigate any hydrologic issues.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Rain and wind both come to an end quickly this evening as the low level jet moves east and a dry slot develops across the region. After late day highs in the 60s, overnight lows will range from the mid 40s well north and west of NYC to the low to mid 50s across far eastern Connecticut and Long Island. These temperatures are around 15 degrees above normal for the last day of November.

Both the surface and upper lows will meander over upstate New York on Tuesday. In addition to plenty of cloud cover, the combination of falling heights and the main lobe of vorticity crossing the area should be enough to spark scattered showers. While the better rain chances are likely across the interior, can't rule out a shower anywhere, and continued with chance PoPs.

Temperatures on Tuesday will remain nearly steady during the day, rising only a few degrees after daybreak.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. The energy aloft moves east of the area Tuesday evening as the upper low shifts farther north. The surface low follow as it becomes vertically stacked with the upper low. The system will only slowly lift across southeast Canada on Wednesday, leaving cyclonic flow aloft. Dry conditions are forecast on Wednesday, but there should be at least a scattered stratocu deck which could become broken at times. The upper cyclone lifts further north and east Wednesday night into Thursday with height rises occurring aloft and high pressure building across the Middle Atlantic.

Forecast confidence is very low Friday into next weekend. The deterministic and ensemble runs are showing little run-to-run consistency. The main feature that is another upper low and packet of vorticity energy that dives out of Central Canada on Tuesday. This system should eventually move around the base of the overall mean trough Wednesday into Thursday. The challenge then becomes how much energy interacts with the remaining upper cyclone remaining over southeast Canada at the end of the week. The 12z 11/28 runs had another rapidly deepening low pressure that tracks inland, similar to the one that will occur early this week. The 12z 11/29 runs are much different with the GFS and CMC showing more of a frontal system passage Friday or early next weekend. The ECMWF on the other hand still indicates potential for a more significant low pressure over the Middle Atlantic. The ensembles of the EPS and GEFS show a wide range of solutions as well, and suspect this will continue for a few days as the models resolve the overall anomalous large scale pattern of North America. Something to watch for now and will leave a low chance PoP in the forecast Friday into the weekend.

Temperatures will be warmest on Tuesday, especially in the morning before cooler air filters in as the upper low settles over the northeast. Wednesday looks like the coldest day with temperatures in the 40s, then temperatures should get a few degrees above normal for the end of the week

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Deepening low pres will reach wrn PA by 18Z and Lake Ontario by 00Z. The low will then meander near the lake til at least 18Z Tue.

Conditions will deteriorate today as rain overspreads the region from the sw and winds increase. Winds are expected to ramp up aft 15Z, peak in the 18-00Z time frame, then diminish gradually overnight. There could be some peak gusts around 50kt, particularly east of the NYC arpts. IFR and lower can be expected in hvy rain today, before improving to VFR tngt.

LLWS with winds 70+ kt at 2000 ft by this aftn.

There is a low chance for embedded tstms this aftn and early eve with the heaviest rain. The prob is too low to include in the TAFs however.

Mainly VFR expected on Tue attm. There is a chance that cigs drop to MVFR in any shwrs.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

The EWR, JFK and LGA haze forecast for today is MODERATE (YELLOW). Amendments can be expected today for changing vis and cigs. Peak gusts may be higher by 5-10kt than those in the TAFs, especially JFK and LGA.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

Tuesday. MVFR possible with sct showers. S-SW winds G15-20kt inland and 20-25kt NYC metros/coast. Wednesday. VFR. W/SW winds G20kt. Thursday. VFR. Friday. Mainly VFR. MVFR possible with any scattered showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. A Gale Warning remains in effect on all waters into this evening as an approaching area of low pressure will result in gusts to 40-45 kt on the ocean and 35-40 kt elsewhere. In addition, seas will build to 10-14 ft on the ocean this afternoon, and 3-5 ft across the central and eastern Long Island Sound. While winds will fall below gale force tonight, a relatively strong pressure gradient will remain in place Tuesday and Tuesday night, resulting in SCA conditions.

Winds will subside on the non-ocean waters on Wednesday, although SCA winds will likely continue on the ocean. In addition, seas will remain elevated Wednesday into Wednesday night before gradually falling below 5 ft during the day on Thursday. Sub-SCA conditions then return for the end of the week.

HYDROLOGY. 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected across the area today, with locally higher amounts possible. Localized minor urban flooding is possible during this afternoon during the periods of heaviest rainfall.

No hydrologic impacts are forecast at this time from Tuesday through next weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Minor to locally moderate beach erosion along with overwash is likely along the oceanfront this afternoon through Tuesday due to large breaking waves.

Tide levels are still expected to respond quickly to a strong onshore flow on today. The highest astronomical tide is in the morning, but there does not appear to be enough surge and water rise in time for minor coastal flooding impacts. While isolated spots in the south shore back bays could see minor benchmark being briefly touched, no statements have been issued at this time.

The strongest winds and highest surge today will occur generally closest to low tide. No statements or advys have been issued attm. The southerly flow weakens considerably tonight. There may still be some tidal piling into Tuesday morning, and the guidance does indicate some minor flooding is possible. After Tuesday morning high tide, no coastal flooding is anticipated through the middle of the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for CTZ006>008-010>012. NY . Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ075-078>081-176>179. NJ . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345- 350-353-355.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NPXN6	23 mi	67 min	NNE 1	39°F			1011 hPa	37°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY	36 mi	67 min	Calm	40°F			1008 hPa	40°F
TKPN6	36 mi	49 min	NNW 6 G 9.9		44°F
44022 - Execution Rocks	45 mi	37 min	ESE 18 G 25	57°F				57°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT	49 mi	49 min	E 14 G 21		53°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY	49 mi	49 min	S 7 G 14

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT

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SW5 G12

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Newburgh / Stewart, NY	5 mi	52 min	E 12 G 19	4.00 mi	Fog/Mist	50°F	46°F	88%	1005.4 hPa
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY	12 mi	44 min	E 8	2.00 mi	Rain Fog/Mist	52°F	48°F	86%	1005.2 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY	13 mi	43 min	NNE 12	5.00 mi	Rain Fog/Mist	44°F	44°F	100%	1004.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSWF

Wind History from SWF (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for Haverstraw (Hudson River), New York Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY

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