Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Avon Lake, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
615 am update...
There were no adjustments needed to the ongoing near term forecast at this time. The weather remains quiet this morning but clouds and moisture will increase later today with rain showers moving in by this evening.

Previous discussion...
Our weather pattern will transition today from a ridge of high pressure to the influence of a slow moving upper level low pressure system coming in the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This upper level low will slowly meander northward into the Lower Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday. Ahead of the approaching system, most of today will be dry with fair weather conditions. High clouds will increase throughout the day becoming mostly overcast towards the late afternoon. There will still be a good amount of sunshine or filtered sun during much of today. High temperatures will range from the middle 70s near central Ohio and the upper 70s to around 80 degrees for northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

Scattered rain showers and a slight chance for a thunderstorm or two will start to move in by late this afternoon or early this evening near central Ohio. The rain chances and POPs will increase from south to north during the evening hours into the overnight across the entire area. No severe weather is anticipated with the slight chance of a T'storm or two.
POPs will remain likely on Tuesday with scattered showers and a couple thunderstorms possible. Average rainfall amounts or QPF today through Tuesday afternoon will be around a quarter of an inch. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 60s over NWPA to the lower and middle 70s over NEOH and NWOH.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Upper level low will evolve into an upper trough Tuesday night overhead with the upper trough remaining in place through the bulk of the short term period. Scattered showers and storms will continue Tuesday night into early Wednesday though have highest PoPs on Wednesday afternoon as MLCAPE values rise to ~1000 J/kg during the peak heating hours of Wednesday afternoon. Minimal bulk layer shear in place so not anticipating a severe weather threat with the mid week system. However, can't rule out isolated strong storms producing gusty winds and small hail. By Wednesday night, an upper level ridge will build over the Ohio Valley bringing a brief dry window Wednesday night and early Thursday. Another round of isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms triggered by peak heating are possible on Thursday, though coverage may be lower than Wednesday afternoon given the upper ridge overhead. Low pressure centered over the Northern Plains will lift a warm front northeast across the Mid to Upper Ohio Valley Thursday night into the start of the long term period likely triggering some showers and thunderstorms.

Overnight lows Tuesday and Wednesday night settle near 60 degrees with warmer overnight lows on Thursday night in the mid 60s. Highs on Wednesday rise into the mid to upper 70s. It will be warm on Thursday with highs in the upper 70s in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania and low 80s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The aforementioned expansive low pressure system will be the primary driver of unsettled weather through the long term period. AI/ML models continue to hint at the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms impacting portions of the Ohio Valley region Thursday night into Friday morning. We'll have to see how convection west of the local forecast area evolves as it pushes east into the Upper Ohio Valley late Thursday night and early Friday morning as this will likely be our best environment for any severe weather, despite the overnight timeframe.
Unsettled weather will likely remain in place through the long term as the upper low slowly moves from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. The low will glide a cold front east across the region during the day on Friday with a reinforcing front pushing east on Saturday. Warmest day through the long term will be Friday with highs in the mid 80s. Highs are forecasted to rise to the mid 70s by this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
VFR conditions will continue through most of today but gradually clouds will increase and ceilings will lower late this afternoon into the evening. MVFR ceilings will move in for most TAF sites after 00z this evening. IFR ceilings will creep in for TOL, MFD, FDY, YNG and CAK by 06z overnight. Scattered rain showers will also move in impacting TAF sites across the area this evening into the overnight with visibility reductions of 5sm as well as light mist. Winds will be mainly from the east or southeast 5 to 12 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings and periodic rain showers are expected Monday night through Wednesday evening.

MARINE
High pressure exits to the east today as low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley works its way towards the Mid Atlantic region.
Generally easterly to southeasterly winds will persist through Thursday night before winds favor a southerly flow through the end of the week. By Friday winds turn southwesterly to westerly and may increase to 15-20 knots as a cold front sweeps east across the lake.
Elevated westerly to northwesterly winds will likely persist through the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.