Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakewood, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley will continue an eastward track through southern Ohio and into western Pennsylvania while an upper level closed low is diving southward into the western Great Lakes. Stout cold air advection will be taking place throughout the CWA once the surface low is sufficiently east of it basically occurring in earnest after 18Z today. It is important to note the colder airmass coming into the region, source from the northern Canadian Prairies, will dive southward west of the Great LAkes for the most part, unmodified by the lakes themselves. This is a reason the colder airmass should do an efficient job of maintaining its colder characteristics this early in the season. Periodic precipitation overspreads the area today with multiple different forcing aspects from mid level waves,PVA, a lingering surface trough, and areas of low level frontogenesis. While areas of northwest Ohio could see wet snow mixing in with the rain later this morning, should be all rain this afternoon, then transitioning to snow tonight. This will largely be synoptically forced precipitation, with some lake enhancement fro northerly low level flow, and will be the first main period for snow accumulations. As temperatures fall, before daylight, could see 1-3 inches in places across the CWA However, temperatures will climb into the mid 30s away from LAke Erie, and the upper 30s adjacent to the lake for Monday. This will make additional accumulating snow during this period pretty hard to come by, especially since multiple operational models continue to indicate periodic low level dry air intrusions.
While 6 hour POPs will remain fairly high, QPF will be lower during the Monday period, and temperatures above freezing will make accumulations difficult to achieve.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low level/surface flow turns northwesterly Monday night to westerly by Tuesday. This becomes more of a lake effect event at this point, and snowfall returns to the typical snowbelt areas. Highest amounts will become focused over NW PA and far NE OH for Monday night, and then amounts wane Tuesday with slightly milder temperatures into the afternoon hours. By Tuesday night, flows off the lake now west southwesterly, and the bulk of the precipitation now hits far NW PA and in the form of showers. High pressure building in from the south forces these wind direction changes, and Wednesday temperatures now into the low to mid 40s. Another weak cold front briefly reinforces the cooler air heading into the long term portion of the forecast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Finally get into some 500mb height recoveries for the end of the week and into the weekend with upper level ridging building in by Saturday. 850mb temperatures also rebound accordingly, and expect to be in the above normal range for temperatures by the end of the weekend. With that, another cold front will be approaching by the end of the weekend as well.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
Rain will spread across all terminals from west to east over the next few hours, with cigs and visibilites steadily falling to MVFR and then IFR. The rain will then remain mostly steady with IFR conditions prevailing through the day today as low pressure lifts across Ohio. NW Ohio will get into the cold air to the west of the low track sooner, so kept some rain/snow mix at KTOL in the 10-16Z timeframe this morning, but it should go back to rain this afternoon. Either way, cold air advection behind the low tonight will cause a gradual changeover to snow at all terminals from west to east before the steadiest precip departs. This will first occur at KTOL and KFDY after about 22Z before gradually changing over in the 00 to 05Z timeframe at the rest of the terminals. KCLE and KERI will likely take the longest given the NW flow off the warmer Lake Erie, but mainly snow will dominate tonight in north central and NE Ohio about 10 miles inland from the lakeshore as lake enhancement and upsloping keeps steady precip going through the night. KTOL and KFDY should see diminishing snow showers by the end of the TAF period though since they will be west of the lake enhancement.

Light E to NE winds early this morning will turn more NW as the day progresses while increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots this afternoon. NW winds of 10-20 knots will continue through tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected through Monday with snow showers.
Possible prolonged non-VFR conditions in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania with lake effect snow showers through midweek.

MARINE
An unsettled pattern across the area for the start of this week will result in a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions across Lake Erie. Northeast winds this evening will persist at 10 to 15 knots before a low pressure system moves east just south of Lake Erie on Sunday. This will increase the gradient across the lake and increasing northeast winds to 20 to 25 knots throughout the day, gradually backing to become northwesterly as the winds shift around the center of the low.
Once the flow becomes predominantly onshore, waves will build to 4-6 feet with locally higher waves up to 8 feet possible. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for these hazards beginning Sunday morning.

As this low moves east of the area, a surface trough will linger with winds of 20 to 25 knots from the north persisting. There may be a brief lull in the strength of winds Monday night into Tuesday, but another low pressure system quickly impacts the area Tuesday through Wednesday. This system will be centered near Hudson Bay, moving a warm front quickly northeast Tuesday night before a strong cold front east on Wednesday. Behind the warm front late Tuesday, winds will once again become southwesterly and increase to near gales across much of the basin. Gales may persist into Wednesday morning before winds weaken a bit, but still will range from 20-30 knots across Lake Erie. Given the prolonged southwesterly flow, there is a potential for water levels in the western basin to fall below the critical mark for safe navigation. Will have to continue to monitor the water level forecast in the coming updates to gain more confidence in the timing and extent of that. As a result, the Small Craft that begins Sunday morning will extend through Wednesday (possibly longer) due to the high confidence of marine conditions. A brief Gale Warning may be needed, but given lower confidence in that at this point, opted to handle all marine concerns with the Small Craft. The next break in hazardous marine conditions may be on Friday when a high is expected to build over the lake.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for OHZ010>014-020>023-089.
PA...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ142- 143.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ144-145.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ146>149.