NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Light winds, saturated lower levels, and radiational cooling has resulted in patchy fog across portions of the area. Any fog should lift within an hour or two of sunrise.

The weather pattern will finally begin to shift today as an upper ridge axis pushes east of the area. Warm and advection/return flow will develop on the back side of the ridge as an upper trough and weak surface cold front advance east across the Great Lakes.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely initiate to the west of the area this afternoon and weaken as they track east towards the CWA this evening, but there's a bit of uncertainty in the location of the initiation and where the storms will track after initiation.
A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may sneak into the western fringe of the CWA late this afternoon into this evening, but any precipitation may battle with quite a bit of low to mid- level dry air so it's possible that very little precip reaches the surface so kept PoPs relatively low.

The front will cross the area Saturday morning and likely be to the east of the CWA by early to mid afternoon. Scattered showers remain possible ahead of the front, but the better chance of diurnally- enhanced convection will likely occur to the east of the area Saturday afternoon. Any rain won't exactly be a drought buster; QPF is 0.25" or less with the higher amounts forecast for far NE OH and NW PA. Locations in drought will likely see 0.1" or less of rainfall. Locations west of the front will experience dry weather for Saturday.

Today's highs will climb into the mid to upper 80s with temps as warm as 90 degrees possible west of I-71. Tonight's lows will fall into the low to mid 60s. Expect temps in the 80s (upper 80s in western zones) across most of northern Ohio with upper 70s more likely across far NE OH and NW PA.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Will continue with a dry forecast on Saturday and will continue holding PoPs back on Sunday as well, as the upper ridge will have one more gasp over the region to support a dry forecast and above normal temperatures. By Sunday night, the ridge will be broken down by an upper trough and a surface cold front will approach the region. Will have PoPs increasing with these features with the best timing after midnight on Sunday into Monday. Will have fairly widespread likely PoPs for the first time in quite some time. Total QPF values for the period will be under one inch at this time, so it will be refreshing rain, but not quite restoring our monthly deficits - at least through Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A progressive pattern is expected with several waves through the Great Lakes region, culminating in a closed upper low near the forecast area. This will allow for continued rain chances as a surface cold front and several waves of low pressure will move through the region. There is growing consensus on a main upper trough axis on Tuesday and will reflect this feature with likely PoPs in the forecast. The final evolution into the upper closed low has some differing solutions for mid-to-late week, so will keep the chance PoPs from the NBM, but can see these rain chances going up.
Temperatures will lean toward normal in the 70s.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
Light winds, clear skies, and saturated lower levels will result in patchy fog across the area, including KTOL/KFDY/KMFD/KCAK/KYNG. There's potential for non-VFR conditions at all of the aforementioned TAF sites, but the greatest chance will be at KTOL/KCAK/KYNG starting in the predawn hours and continuing through about 12-13Z. Otherwise, anticipate VFR through the majority of the TAF period until shower chances begin to increase from the west in the last 6 to 9 hours of the TAF period. Still some uncertainty in shower coverage, placement, and timing through 06Z Saturday so omitted from the TAFs at this time, but there's a solid chance that at least VCSH will be introduced in subsequent updates.

Winds will be light and variable tonight before becoming southwesterly 5 to 10 knots Friday afternoon and more southeasterly Friday evening. A lake breeze will produce northeast winds at KERI and KCLE during the afternoon and early evening.

Outlook...Brief non-VFR possible in showers late tonight into Saturday with better chances of periodic non-VFR in showers and possibly thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday.

MARINE
One more day of a ridge to the east of the region supporting offshore to easterly flow, which will then flip to enhanced east to northeast flow by this afternoon and evening. A front will move through the region tonight into Saturday and bring some rain chances but change flow to westerly across the lake at 10 to 15 kt. High pressure will return from the north and bring some northeast to east flow Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front will approach from the west for Sunday night into Monday and southeast flow will increase across the region. The front will slowly cross on Monday and bring westerly flow. However, several waves of low pressure will move across the front for the middle of the week and this will allow for variable flow and several chances for rain. Low confidence in marine headline potential at this time. There could be windows for marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions, but timing of next week's systems remains uncertain.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.