Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marblehead, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
130 PM Update...
Showers are beginning to lift into the region this afternoon.
Precip will likely continue to fill in over the next couple of hours and continue through at least early evening before diminishing after sunset. There may be potential for isolated (but still sub-severe) gusty winds in wet downbursts given the amount of moisture content, but as of now any hazards should generally be limited to locally heavy rainfall and training showers/storms. Updrafts are relatively shallow, but will need to monitor the activity currently located near Columbus. Made adjustments to PoPs based on latest radar and high res data, but otherwise no changes needed with this update.

910 AM Update...
Periodic showers will continue to lift through the region through most of today with rain coverage peaking this afternoon.
A few thunderstorms can't be ruled out this morning, but the highest likelihood of embedded thunderstorms will arrive this afternoon into early this evening. Given the amount of moisture, training precip is possible and can't rule out a very small chance of isolated downbursts, but any storms should remain below severe limits. Made a few adjustments to PoPs based on radar trends and latest available high res guidance, but overall the forecast remains unchanged.

5:50 AM Update...
Light rain showers are beginning to fill in from the southeast early this morning and will continue to spread across the region through today. Limited instability will lead to scattered showers with some isolated thunderstorms, though storms will remain sub-severe. Showers and storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall today.

Previous discussion...
Upper level low moves into the Ohio Valley region today and continue to impact the region through the near term period as it evolves into an upper trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop both this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon during peak heating as instability rises to ~500-1000 J/kg. Thunderstorms should remain sub-severe through the near term as instability remains minimal with bulk layer shear (less than 15 knots).

There is the potential for heavy rainfall through the near term as forecast soundings indicate long, skinny CAPE with generally slow storm motion. Additionally, PWATs will be well above the 90th percentile when compared to ILN and PBZ sounding climatology. Given this, the Weather Prediction Center has included most of our forecast area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) for Excessive Rainfall in their Day 1 Outlook.

High temperatures today will rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s with low 70s expected areawide on Wednesday afternoon. Low temperatures will settle near 60 degrees tonight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The upper level low which has been moving slowly across the Ohio Valley will open up and lift out Wednesday night. In the wake of the open upper level wave, a small upper level ridge will build and move across the Ohio River Valley on Thursday. High temperatures Thursday will soar into the upper 70s over NWPA and the lower to middle 80s across northern Ohio. A southerly flow 10 to 15 mph on Thursday will keep any lake breeze from moving inland. POPs will be slight to widely scattered on Thursday due to upper level riding.

An negatively tilted shortwave trough will swing out of the Northern CONUS into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region Thursday night. A cold front will push through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Thursday night. Moderate instability will advect into the Upper Ohio Valley region Thursday evening. Strong mid-level flow orthogonal to the front should promote some discrete or semi- discrete convection Thursday evening on the eastern edge of a stout EML. We will need to monitor for the potential of strong to severe convection as the front approaches the I-75 corridor and NWOH late Thursday evening into the overnight. The convection should gradually weaken as it progresses eastward int NEOH and NWPA later in the overnight.

There will be a brief break in the rain chances and POPs during the day on Friday behind the frontal passage. The airmass will not change that much on Friday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s. A weak lake breeze may try to sneak inland across parts of NEOH and NWPA Friday afternoon. Another shortwave will round the base of the upper level trough over the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region late Friday into Friday night. The frontal boundary will lift back northward across the area Friday night as a warm front with showers and thunderstorms likely.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front will move through the area Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely during the first half of the day tapering off from west to east. High temperatures will be cooler in the lower to middle 70s Saturday afternoon. High pressure will build in over the Great Lakes region Sunday into Monday. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will range from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Warm air advection will return by Tuesday with warmer weather and the next chance for rain.

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/
Showers will continue to fill in as they lift northeast into the region this afternoon with coverage peaking through early evening. Embedded thunderstorms are possible primarily at KFDY/KMFD/KCAK through early evening, but have also included PROB30 groups for thunderstorms at KCLE and KTOL for several hours. Ceilings will fluctuate between MVFR and IFR this afternoon, however there will likely be some clearing and an opportunity for some VFR ceilings across southern zones this afternoon into this evening. Any showers/storms could produce non-VFR visibilities. Shower/thunderstorm coverage should gradually diminish after sunset, although non-VFR conditions will most likely persist at most terminals through the end of the TAF period. Confidence in ceilings is somewhat low late tonight into early Wednesday; some aviation guidance suggests that cigs could drop to LIFR in low stratus across the majority of the area while other guidance members maintain MVFR cigs through the overnight. Opted for the more optimistic guidance across the majority of the area for the time being, but future updates may include lower ceilings. Patchy fog may develop tonight and continue through early Wednesday morning.

Winds will be out of the southeast at 6 to 12 knots this afternoon with winds at western terminals becoming more easterly this evening. Southerly flow will begin to develop Wednesday morning. There's some potential for LLWS from KCLE to KCAK east tonight, however it appears that the LLJ will be quite marginal so ommitted any LLWS from this update.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are possible through Sunday.

MARINE
A weak area of low pressure will meander near Lake Erie today through Wednesday. Winds will be easterly to southeasterly 5 to 12 knots today through tonight. Winds will become weaker on Wednesday from the south or light and variable. A light southerly flow 5 to 12 knots will return over the lake Thursday ahead of a cold front.
Behind the cold front, winds will become westerly 10 to 15 late Thursday night into Friday morning. There may be a brief time window where marginal SCA may occur. Winds will become southwesterly 5 to 10 knots later on Friday. A stronger low pressure system may develop and move across Lake Erie Friday night into Saturday with stronger southerly to southwesterly winds 15 to 25 knots. Westerly winds 15 to 25 knots may continue into Saturday. SCA headlines may be needed Friday night into Saturday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.