Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 9:37 PM   Moonset 6:10 AM

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LEZ143 Expires:202404250815;;322944 Fzus51 Kcle 250157 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 957 pm edt Wed apr 24 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-250815- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 957 pm edt Wed apr 24 2024
Rest of tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - East winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - East winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 53 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 250507 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 107 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build over the southern Great Lakes tonight through Thursday before drifting east off the coast of New England by Friday night. A warm front will lift across the area late Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
9:30 PM Update...

Skies continue to slowly clear from north to south as broad surface high pressure builds in from the Upper Midwest. The best clearing is in north central Ohio, but much of NW Ohio and NW PA should be mainly clear by 06Z. This allows low temperatures to remain on track overnight, and we will see widespread upper 20s to low 30s, except low to mid 30s near the lakeshore. The freeze warning continues to look good.

6:30 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track for this evening. Drier air continues to slowly erode the cloud shield, with lakeshore areas beginning to see some sunshine. This will continue over the next few hours allowing the clouds to erode slowly from NW to SE.
Lingering drizzle at KERI and surrounding NW PA should dissipate by 01Z, but it may take until after 04Z to clear out the clouds there.

Original Discussion...

High pressure will build south across the region this evening into tonight and lake-enhanced clouds will quickly clear from north to south this evening with dry weather continuing through the remainder of the near term period.

The main concern for the next two days will be frost/freeze potential. The best chance of frost/freeze will be tonight with continued cold air advection in addition to radiational cooling as both cloud cover and winds diminish. Overnight lows across nearly the entire area will dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s. There's still some uncertainty in the cloud cover in southeastern zones (there will be a tight mid-level cloud gradient and 850mb moisture may be slow to decrease overnight)
which could result in slightly warmer temperatures than currently forecast. Temperatures will also be a few degrees warmer (perhaps as warm as the mid 30s) right along the lakeshore, however locations just inland will most likely be below freezing. Regardless, at least a few spots in the "zones of uncertainty" should drop to or below freezing late tonight and early Thursday morning and there should be widespread frost.
A Freeze Warning goes into effect at Midnight tonight and will continue into Thursday morning.

Temperatures begin to recover on Thursday as the high settles over the region with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s.
Northeasterly winds increase Thursday afternoon which will likely advect cooler temperatures in the mid to upper 40s into locations downwind from Lake Erie. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 30s Thursday night and radiational cooling will result in areas of frost. Can't rule out a Frost Advisory during this time.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will continue to drift off the New England Coast on Friday as a low pressure continues to develop over the central US.
With a lingering upper level ridge, much of Friday morning and afternoon should remain dry, although some mid to upper level clouds will likely build in ahead of an approaching warm front. Ahead of the warm front Friday evening, scattered shower and thunderstorm development is possible with an upper level divergent pattern over the area coupled with some frontogenetic forcing. At this point, not expecting anything severe with limited instability and timing remaining in a diurnally unfavorable period. The biggest shift with this approaching warm front will be temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s on Friday with overnight lows only falling into the low to mid 50s with a surge of WAA.

By Saturday afternoon, the aforementioned warm front should lift north of the area as the parent low moves into the western Great Lakes region. This will allow the corridor of likeliest precipitation to shift north as well. There does remain a non-zero chance of scattered storms on Saturday as moisture couple with support from a LLJ and a diurnally favorable environment may be enough to generate a few additional storms. In addition, with the LLJ of 35-40 knots over the area and mixing layer heights 2kft, gusty winds are expected at the surface with sustained winds of 15- 20 knots, gusting up to 30 knots, especially in any showers that develop. This general pattern is expected to persist through Saturday night. With strong WAA in place, highs on Saturday will climb into the low 70s for eastern counties, but will approach 80 in the western counties. Overnight lows will be warm, only falling into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A surface high and associated ridge aloft will stick around for much of Sunday and Sunday night as another low pressure develops over the central US. With lingering moisture over the area and increased diurnal instability, wouldn't be surprised to see isolated, weak convection Sunday afternoon, but things should diminish for Sunday night. Highs on Sunday are expected to be well above normal, climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s for the entire area.

On Monday, the aforementioned low pressure will move into the western Great Lakes region, slowly moving the associated cold front towards out area. Ahead of the boundary, upper level forcing will aid in shower development, although widespread shower development isn't expected until Monday night into Tuesday when the front moves east. There remains some model divergence primarily in the timing of the low progression, which may result in the timing of the front and best chance of rain changing. High pressure is forecast to push north over the area by Tuesday evening and into Wednesday, although with weak forcing aloft have opted to maintain a slight change of precipitation across the eastern CWA through Wednesday.

Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will likely also remain above average, climbing into the 70s everyday, with the warmest day expected on Monday ahead of the cold front. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s most days.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
Conditions range from VFR to MVFR ceilings across the area early this morning. A patch of MVFR ceilings is currently moving across the region early this morning that will impact FDY, MFD, and CAK. TEMPO groups until 09z are highlighting the MVFR ceilings for those particular TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue for the rest of the area through the remainder of this TAF period with high pressure in control of the weather pattern. Winds will be light and somewhat variable under 5 knots through sunrise this morning. Winds will be light around 5 to 7 knots today from the northeast.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return in periodic showers and thunderstorms Friday evening through Monday.

MARINE
As high pressure has begun to move east across Lake Erie this afternoon, winds from the north have weakened to 10-15 knots and will continue to weak to 5-10 knots from the northeast tonight allowing waves along the shoreline to fall below 4 feet. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled.

The aforementioned high pressure will persist over Lake Erie through Friday night before it shifts east off the New England Coast. Winds on Thursday will remain 10-15 knots from the east-northeast, before an increased pressure gradient results in winds increasing from the east at 15-20 knots on Friday afternoon. On Friday night into Saturday, winds will gradually shift to become southerly as a warm front lifts north across the area. As a result, there may be an additional Small Craft Advisory needed Friday afternoon through Saturday, with winds over 20 knots being the primary concern as offshore flow should keep the largest waves along the northern lakeshore. By Sunday, Lake Erie will reside in the warm sector of a low centered over the central US, which will shift winds to become southwesterly and weaken to 10-15 knots. These winds will linger into the first part of next week as a surface trough resides over the area. In addition, there is a chance of thunderstorms over Lake Erie with each frontal passage, but confidence in extent and timing for convection is low at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ003-006>014- 017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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