Marine Forecasts

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Clinton, OH

   Hourly   EDIT   Help

---

Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KCLE 011113 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 713 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. A trough over the northern Great Lakes will push south today, reaching Lake Erie tonight. This feature will stall over the lake Friday before high pressure builds from the west for the Saturday. A low pressure system will enter the Great Lakes region on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. The boundary persists over central Lake Erie this morning and showers continue east into Ashtabula and Erie Counties. A land breeze has developed and is progressing north across the lake. This may interrupt convection later this morning and temporarily allow for a dry period in far NE OH/NW PA. Made changes based on these conditions but overall have a mix of likely and chance PoPs in the region.

Previous Discussion . A cold front departing to the east of the region has allowed for temperatures aloft to cool over warm Lake Erie and lake effect cloud and rain showers continue over far NE OH into NW PA this morning. Satellite and radar depict a boundary extending from Lake Erie into Ashtabula and Erie Counties then into western NY. This feature has been the main focus for scattered showers this morning and will keep chance PoPs in the forecast through this morning as this feature will persist and continue to bring rain to NE OH/NW PA.

Rain activity will increase through the day as better low level moisture enters the region. Another round of synoptically-driven rainfall is expected this afternoon as a surface trough approaches slowly from the north and a mid-level shortwave trough swings through the region. Believe that most activity will be scattered in nature and have chances PoPs; however, expect better chances in the NE OH/NW PA region with lake enhancement and have likely PoPs. High temperatures will underachieve from Wednesday with lower 60s and some locations in NE OH/NW PA staying in the upper 50s.

The surface trough reaches Lake Erie tonight and slows significantly as the mid-level wave exits to the east. This feature will generate showers over Lake Erie and push into NE OH/NW PA overnight. Rain should persist through the overnight into Friday as the lake will provide ample instability and moisture with a west to northwest fetch, while very cold air enters aloft. Thunder is certainly possibility with the cold temps aloft and the lake-induced instability and have maintained the slight chance thunder mention. The surface trough moves east on Friday and residual rain is possible in the snow belt region with favorable flow off the lake. Low temperatures tonight will be largely in the 40s, although some upper 30s are possible in NW OH, if clearing skies do occur. Highs on Friday will struggle even further behind the surface trough and will remain in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Broad upper trough will remain entrenched over the Great Lakes region through the period. Lingering lake effect rain will subside Friday night into Saturday as a surface trough moves east of the region and winds veer more southwest/southerly as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes/Ohio valley. A potent shortwave will move east across the Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night with a surface low developing across the area. This will bring precip chances to the area, with some minor model timing and model solution differences precluding likely pops at this time, with high chance pops forecast at this time. Precip will diminish behind the low/trough Sunday night from west to east. Continued cool temperatures expected with highs in the upper 50s/low 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Friday night will be the coolest night of the stretch with the building ridge, with some of the typical outlying spots across northeast Ohio seeing some patchy frost.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Ridging will build east across the region Monday and Monday night, with drying conditions and a brief warmup into Tuesday before the ridge shifts east and a broad large scale trough digs south through the Great Lakes. Model solutions are in fair agreement with the pattern into the middle of next week, with a surface low deepening and tracking east across the Great Lakes sometime Wednesday. Return flow should persist into the area through the period, with highs warming from the low 60s Monday to the mid/upper 60s by Wednesday. Precip chances could return as early as Wednesday but will be more likely just beyond this forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/. A boundary with lake effect rain persists over central Lake Erie this morning and will allow for showers in and around the KERI terminal. Have maintained MVFR conditions in the TAF for now. A land breeze may interrupt convection in the region for a brief bit this morning and have KERI after 16z. A surface trough will enter the southern Great Lakes region today and bring increasing cloudiness across all terminals. With greater instability over the warm lake and the slow timing of this feature, expect rain to develop for the northern TAF sites this evening and tonight. Confidence of rain at KTOL remain low and have maintained a vicinity shower for now. Rain is much more certain at KCLE and KERI for the second half of the TAF period and have MVFR mentions for now, although IFR is definitely within the realm of possibility. Some of this rain could have thunder but confidence in TS is too low to mention in a TAF at this time, but could be added at a later time. Low clouds and lingering rain will persist into Friday, especially across NE OH and NW PA and have ceilings falling all across the area, including as far south as KYNG, KCAK, and KMFD. Winds through the period will be southwest with occasional gusts to 20 knots during the day. Winds will veer more west to northwest with the trough late in the period into Friday.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible across NE OH and NW PA with occasional rain showers through Friday night. Non-VFR possible with showers and low ceilings on Sunday and Monday.

MARINE. An active period on the lake continues through the end of the week, although winds this morning will continue to subside through early afternoon. Left the small craft advisory up east of Avon Point and cancelled west to Vermilion. Conditions may drop below advisory criteria later this morning/midday that could necessitate further cancellation, however this will be short lived as a cold front drops southeast to the lake later tonight. Wind will increase out of the northwest behind the front 15-20 kts after 06Z Friday, which will likely require another small craft advisory Friday. Winds will subside Friday night into Saturday as high pressure moves over the lake. Winds will become southerly Sunday into Sunday night as the high departs east, veering easterly then northerly Monday as low pressure passes south of the lake. With the trough over the lake today through Friday evening, waterspout potential will continue with any shower activity across the lake.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ011-012-089. PA . Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ001. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ146>149.

SYNOPSIS . Sefcovic NEAR TERM . Sefcovic SHORT TERM . Greenawalt LONG TERM . Greenawalt AVIATION . Sefcovic MARINE . Greenawalt

---

Weather Reporting Stations

   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CMPO1	2 mi	105 min	WSW 5.1 G 8	46°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	14 mi	57 min	SW 2.9 G 8.9	50°F	64°F		1011.5 hPa	42°F
TWCO1	18 mi	45 min	SW 15 G 19	47°F	63°F			44°F
45165	19 mi	35 min	WSW 12 G 16	49°F	63°F	1 ft
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	25 mi	75 min	SW 8.9 G 12	47°F			1011.2 hPa (+1.0)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH	28 mi	90 min	SW 1.9	45°F			1013 hPa	42°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	28 mi	57 min	WSW 6 G 8.9	48°F			1011.8 hPa	42°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH	33 mi	45 min	WSW 16 G 19	55°F			1012.4 hPa	49°F
LORO1	42 mi	45 min	SW 12 G 16	51°F

Wind History for Marblehead, OH

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

-12 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

Last 24hr

SW7 G17

S9 G13

S4 G14

S8 G15

SW6 G17

SW8 G20

SW11 G20

SW9 G21

SW14 G23

SW11 G19

W10 G18

SW8 G12

W16 G25

W11 G17

SW9 G16

SW6 G10

SW6 G12

SW4 G8

SW4 G8

SW4 G9

W8 G11

SW5 G8

SW4 G8

1 day ago

SW4 G7

SW4 G7

SW5 G9

S6 G9

SW5 G13

W7

W4 G7

W7 G10

W4

SW3

SW1

S2

SW2

SW2

SW2

S4 G7

SW3 G7

SW5 G10

SW5 G8

SW3 G7

SW6

SW5 G11

SW5 G12

SW7 G15

2 days ago

S5 G10

S5 G9

S5

SW5 G9

S4 G14

SW2 G5

W4 G7

W16

W15 G22

W17 G24

NW19

W19 G23

W10 G14

SW5 G9

SW3 G6

SW4 G7

SW5 G9

SW5 G8

SW4 G7

SW4 G7

SW5 G15

SW5 G8

SW4 G7

SW4 G8

---

Airport Reports

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.

Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH	26 mi	22 min	WSW 8	10.00 mi	Fair	48°F	43°F	83%	1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTDZ

Wind History from TDZ (wind in knots)

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

Last 24hr

SW13

S15 G19

SW24 G33

SW22 G34

SW25 G32

SW20 G35

SW23 G30

SW23 G37

W22 G29

W10

SW10

W17 G22

W14

W7

SW7

SW8

S6

SW6

SW6

SW6

W4

SW4

SW6

SW8

1 day ago

SW8

SW8

SW6

SW9

SW10

SW10

SW7

SW6

SW7

S3

S4

S6

SW4

SW3

SW4

SW6

SW6

SW5

SW7

SW9

SW7

SW11

SW10

SW11

2 days ago

W3

Calm

SW4

SW6

W9

NW11

NW12

W10

NW10

NW8

W7

W6

SW6

SW6

SW7

SW7

SW8

SW5

SW6

SW4

SW4

SW6

SW4

SW9

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

Weather Map

       (on/off)   Help Weather Map

---

GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

---

Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

   (on/off)   Help

---

Cookie Policy: This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser. Privacy Policy: I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. Google supplies the ads on this site. Because I do not track who you are, I cannot customize how these ads are served. They may be personalized to improve the ad experience. If you do not want personalized ads, please adjust the settings on the Google site HERE. . NOTE: The best I can determine, this site is not subject to CCPA but I am doing my best to comply anyway. Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.