Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Balmville, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
LAPS analyzed a 990s low just E of Cape Cod early this mrng.
Some light pockets of rain or sprinkles on radar rotating thru the cwa on the back side of the sys. As the pcpn associated with the low dries up and exits the area this mrng, a jet streak approaches this aftn. With the cold pool aloft, steep lapse rates thru about h85. The NAM has some sbcape across srn areas where the clouds break up and temps rise into the 60s. With these ingredients, would expect at least some sct aftn shwrs, with a few low topped tstms possible. Some small hail possible with the cold air aloft but limited residence time.

Shwrs should wane tngt as the BL cools, instability lessens, and the jet streak exits. Skies may even become mostly clr overnight. A wly flow however should keep the llvls mixed sufficiently to prevent significant radiational cooling. If any areas do decouple, lows could be 5-10 degrees colder in those spots than currently fcst.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Instability recharges on Sat with a slight warming trend across the cwa. All areas progged to reach the 60s. Cold aloft with h85 blw 0C. With cyclonic flow aloft, feel the NAM is too dry, and the NBM pops which are basically dry across the cwa too low. As a result, went at least slight chance all areas during the day on Sat. Coverage isold-sct, with a few low topped tstms again possible. It will already be breezy with well mixed flow. Time heights show unidirectional winds thru h2. Some enhanced gusts possible with any convection with dcape around 200.

Any pcpn should again dissipate Sat ngt, and likely quickly.
Went with the NBM for temps which produces lows about 5 degrees blw normal.

A drier fcst for Sun, but again cannot rule out a few aftn shwrs. Did not stray from the NBM however at this stage, so most of the cwa except for the nwrn corner has a dry fcst. Enough sun and mixing expected to keep the warming trend going. Cool again at night with lows in the 40s to around 50. Wouldn't be surprised if the guidance trends a little lower based on the current idea of better radiational cooling.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Good model agreement in mean troughing to start the week as Canadian Maritimes closed upper low gradually opens up and slides out to sea, followed by weak ridging albeit interrupted by a northern stream shortwave rotating through the area on Wed. Model spread increases in terms of upper level flow for mid-late week, based on interaction of a northern plains cutoff upper low and northern stream jet over Canada.

At the surface, weak high pressure builds into the region Mon and Tue, with dry conditions and temps near seasonable. Potential for a southern low to approach the region for midweek, but latest medium range model trend has been for a slower approach for late week, but will ultimately be predicated on earlier mention interaction of a northern plains cutoff upper low and northern stream jet over Canada.
Temps will also depend on mid to late week low pressure, generally running near to slight above seasonable if the low remains suppressed, otherwise a few degrees below normal if the low pressure system ends up affecting the region.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Strong coastal low pressure slowly tracks up the New England coast today, while another weak low over the eastern Great Lakes tracks east across New England, before both lift northeast tonight.

VFR conditions giving way to a return to MVFR cigs (patchy IFR) and isolated showers (MVFR vsby w/ -shra) across western terminals early this morning with approach of a weak trough, gradually spreading to KBDR and KISP after 12z. MVFR cigs continue through much of the day with iso to sct showers (MVFR vsby possible w/ -shra) mid morning thru mid afternoon, particularly for northern terminals. A slow improvement to VFR from SW to NE in the mid to late afternoon.

Light N winds for the morning push, give way to a SW or WSW wind 5 to 10 kt for a few hours in the morning ahead of approaching trough, backing to the W and increasing to 10-14g15-20kt in its wake this afternoon, particularly western terminals. Gusts subside this evening, but winds likely remain in the 7 to 10 kt range.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR conds in -shra likely for morning push. Low probability of IFR cigs between 10z and 15z.

VFR conds for eve push, outside of iso/sct shra. Very low and sparse potential for a tsra btwn 22 and 02z.

Light and variable wind for AM push, becoming SW/W. Occasional westerly gusts of 15 to 20 kt for this aft/eve push.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Late Tonight: VFR. W wind 10 to 15 kt with gust to 20 kt.

Saturday: VFR. W winds 15G20-25kt.

Sunday: MVFR. NW winds 10-15g20kt.

Monday: VFR. NW winds 10-15kt.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, low end chance of MVFR in any showers/rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds diminish this mrng, then increase again from the W this aftn. Waves may fall blw sca lvls for a bit on the ocean, then return again tngt. The sca was therefore extended thru tngt.
Winds may be close to sca lvls all waters on Sat. On the ocean, seas will likely be aoa 5 ft. Lighter winds and subsiding seas expected Sun. Generally sub SCA conditions Mon thru Wed with weak pressure regime.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected thru the middle of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a high rip current risk today at ocean beaches with seas elevated, especially in the mrng. The potential exists for moderate to high on Sat as waves build again. The modeling indicates moderate risk Sun attm.

CLIMATE
The following are the daily record low temperatures for today, May 23rd:

NYC: 43/1963 JFK: 44/1963 LGA: 45/1963 EWR: 43/1931 BDR: 42/1963 ISP: 42/2006

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355.