NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

9:26 AM EDT Update...

Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. However, increased high temperatures slightly for this late afternoon given the expectation of low-level WAA complementing diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer amidst 850 mb temperatures warming to near 15C to 18C by this late afternoon. Highs are now expected to reach the upper 70's to primarily lower 80's in NW PA and mainly the 80's to near 90F in northern OH. Coolest readings are expected over/very near ~72F Lake Erie as sufficient daytime heating of surrounding land and a weak synoptic MSLP gradient allow a lake breeze to occur late this morning through early evening over/within several miles of the lake. Please see discussion below for further details.

Previous Discussion...

The weather pattern will finally begin to shift today as an upper ridge axis pushes east of the area. Warm and advection/return flow will develop on the back side of the ridge as an upper trough and weak surface cold front advance east across the Great Lakes.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely initiate to the west of the area this afternoon and weaken as they track east towards the CWA this evening, but there's a bit of uncertainty in the location of the initiation and where the storms will track after initiation.
A few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm may sneak into the western fringe of the CWA late this afternoon into this evening, but any precipitation may battle with quite a bit of low to mid- level dry air so it's possible that very little precip reaches the surface so kept PoPs relatively low.

The front will cross the area Saturday morning and likely be to the east of the CWA by early to mid afternoon. Scattered showers remain possible ahead of the front, but the better chance of diurnally- enhanced convection will likely occur to the east of the area Saturday afternoon. Any rain won't exactly be a drought buster; QPF is 0.25" or less with the higher amounts forecast for far NE OH and NW PA. Locations in drought will likely see 0.1" or less of rainfall. Locations west of the front will experience dry weather for Saturday.

Today's highs will climb into the mid to upper 80s with temps as warm as 90 degrees possible west of I-71. Tonight's lows will fall into the low to mid 60s. Expect temps in the 80s (upper 80s in western zones) across most of northern Ohio with upper 70s more likely across far NE OH and NW PA.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Will continue with a dry forecast on Saturday and will continue holding PoPs back on Sunday as well, as the upper ridge will have one more gasp over the region to support a dry forecast and above normal temperatures. By Sunday night, the ridge will be broken down by an upper trough and a surface cold front will approach the region. Will have PoPs increasing with these features with the best timing after midnight on Sunday into Monday. Will have fairly widespread likely PoPs for the first time in quite some time. Total QPF values for the period will be under one inch at this time, so it will be refreshing rain, but not quite restoring our monthly deficits - at least through Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A progressive pattern is expected with several waves through the Great Lakes region, culminating in a closed upper low near the forecast area. This will allow for continued rain chances as a surface cold front and several waves of low pressure will move through the region. There is growing consensus on a main upper trough axis on Tuesday and will reflect this feature with likely PoPs in the forecast. The final evolution into the upper closed low has some differing solutions for mid-to-late week, so will keep the chance PoPs from the NBM, but can see these rain chances going up.
Temperatures will lean toward normal in the 70s.

AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
Any lingering non-VFR conditions due to patchy fog will improve by 13-14Z this morning. Otherwise, generally expect VFR through the majority of the TAF period, but will need to continue to monitor the potential for showers as weakening convection approaches from the west late this afternoon into this evening.
There's still some uncertainty in the timing, placement, and overall coverage of showers/isolated storms over the area; currently thinking there will be quite a bit of dry air in place so showers may struggle to reach the surface until humidity potentially increases overnight and towards the end of the TAF period. Only included VCSH at KTOL this evening as showers approach from the west, but it's possible that showers get introduced to other terminals if moisture ends up being a bit more favorable across the CWA tonight. Even if it does rain, precip rates may be light which would result in persisting VFR conditions.

Winds will be light and variable early this morning before becoming southwesterly 5 to 10 knots by this afternoon and more southeasterly this evening. A lake breeze will produce northeast winds at KERI and KCLE during the afternoon and early evening.

Outlook...Brief non-VFR possible in showers across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania during the day Saturday with better chances of periodic non-VFR in showers and possibly thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday.

MARINE
One more day of a ridge to the east of the region supporting offshore to easterly flow, which will then flip to enhanced east to northeast flow by this afternoon and evening. A front will move through the region tonight into Saturday and bring some rain chances but change flow to westerly across the lake at 10 to 15 kt. High pressure will return from the north and bring some northeast to east flow Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front will approach from the west for Sunday night into Monday and southeast flow will increase across the region. The front will slowly cross on Monday and bring westerly flow. However, several waves of low pressure will move across the front for the middle of the week and this will allow for variable flow and several chances for rain. Low confidence in marine headline potential at this time. There could be windows for marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions, but timing of next week's systems remains uncertain.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.