Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mayfield, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Updated PoPs for this morning/today to reflect current rain across the region and on radar.

Previous Discussion...
A driftless low will continue to hover over Lake Erie today and allow for continued on and off rain chances through the day. Have relatively high PoPs in the likely to categorical end with a wave of energy moving through the region aloft as the first closed upper low passes through, which should invigorate activity across the region. For tonight, will continue to have rain in the forecast but have the chances trending down with the surface low getting pulled to the east and the area between waves of energy aloft.
The eastern half of the area will still need likely PoPs though, as mean low level flow will back to north of west and temperatures cooling aloft to around 0C at 850 mb could allow for some lake enhanced rain (Yuck!) for Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania tonight. For Friday, the next closed upper low will move through the region and allow for rain coverage to increase slightly. In fact, with the lake enhancement, there could be some more steady rainfall in the typical snowbelt region. Rain chances will start to taper off toward Friday evening as the bulk of the energy aloft moves east and the pesky surface low gets fully absorbed into the New England coastal low.

Temperatures will continue to be well below normal for late May.
Highs will stay below 60 degrees for all locations for today and Friday. Highs on Friday may actually struggle to exceed 50s in Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA, where rain showers and clouds persist. Lows tonight will be in the 40s with clouds to hold up temperatures from dropping too far.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A slowly departing trough to the east will keep the potential for lake enhanced rain showers around through Saturday with 850mb temperatures of -1 to 0C pushing across a relatively warm lake.
Shower activity should be isolated to the primary snowbelt areas and should remain light with additional rainfall totals up to 0.1-0.2" possible. Outside of the showers, a widespread lake induced cloud deck could with continued CAA will keep below normal temperatures around Friday night through Saturday night with highs climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s on Saturday and overnight lows falling into the low to mid 40s. On Saturday night, high pressure will begin to build south across the area allowing for dry conditions to finally return across the entire area. Given decreased moisture, could see peaks of sunshine on Sunday, allowing for temperatures to increase a bit into the mid-60s, although still remaining below normal. Clouds should begin to build over the area Sunday night as another low pressure system begins to approach from the west, which will allow for more mild overnight temperatures. Lows Sunday night will drop into the low to upper 40s with the warmest temperatures expected across the western counties.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Unfortunately, models continue to suggest below average temperatures through the long term period as another low pressure system possible tracks east across the Ohio River Valley, leaving the area on the northern side of the low. Highs will generally climb into the 60s with the warmest day possible on Wednesday as highs approach 70. The low pressure system will be supported by a broad upper level trough that is expected to deepen over the Great Lakes region early next week, however models are not very consistent in handling the timing of this trough and the associated progression of the low east. Opted to maintain low PoP chances on Monday, increasing them on Tuesday as both synoptic and surface support for showers pushes towards Ohio.
Given the positioning of the area in regards to the low, opted to just maintain rain in the forecast, adding thunder potential on Wednesday as a secondary low shifts further north towards New England and allow for warmer temperatures to sneak in and provide weak instability.

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
A cut-off low pattern will continue across region and allow for non-VFR ceilings and periodic rain at the terminals through much of the TAF period. The LIFR across the region has lifted with some steadier rain moving through the terminals and conditions are just a mix of MVFR and IFR. Rain and periodic IFR will continue today and any lulls in the steadier rainfall could result in some opportunities for LIFR to return, but this is omitted from most of the TAFs at this time. Rain will transition to being lake enhanced rainfall across the region with a drying trend from west to east. Some more potent showers could impact KERI tonight into Friday and allow for more sustained lower visibility and even some LIFR ceilings to return. Winds will be southwest to west to start and veering through the period. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 kt remain possible through this evening. Gusty winds will remain at KERI through the entire period.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic rain showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms through Saturday.

MARINE
Hazardous marine conditions are expected to continue today and Friday as a low pressure system slowly departs towards New England.
This will allow an increased gradient across Lake Erie associated with a surface trough, keeping winds from the northwest and increasing them to 20-25 knots today. These winds will persist through Friday, weakening slight to 15-25 knots through the day.
Given the persistent onshore flow, waves are expected to build to 4- 6 feet for the central and eastern basins, with up to 8 feet possible. For the western basin, waves will build to 1-3 feet, but given the strong winds still needed a headline. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Maumee Bay all the way east to Ripley, NY into tomorrow evening. In addition, these conditions will result in a increased potential for dangerous rip currents to occur and people are encouraged to stay out of the water.

On Saturday, conditions should quickly improve with northwest winds of 5-10 knots expected through Sunday night. To start off next week, another low pressure system will push east across the Ohio River Valley, shifting winds across Lake Erie to northeast by Monday, but given the weak gradient should not require additional headlines.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for OHZ009.
Beach Hazards Statement through late Friday night for OHZ010>012.
Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late Friday night for OHZ089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late Friday night for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for LEZ142>144.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ145>147.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ148-149.