Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Seabury, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 7:31PM Friday August 23, 2019 8:14 PM EDT (00:14 UTC) Moonrise 11:50PMMoonset 1:38PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 716 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Tonight..N winds around 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night through Mon night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres centered over the great lakes this evening will build east over quebec and northern new england tonight and Sat. The high will shift east toward the canadian maritimes Sun and linger there through mid week. A tropical depression is likely to form off the coast of florida early next week. The system may track close enough to effect the coastal waters by mid week with elevated seas. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Seabury, MA
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location: 41.55, -70.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 232327
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
727 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
Large high pressure over the great lakes will continue to
transport drier and less humid air into new england and
eventually a fall-like airmass this weekend. Expect mild
afternoons and cool nights with dry weather Saturday followed by
possibly a few showers Sunday especially eastern ma into ri, but
a washout is not expected. High pressure settles over the
canadian maritimes early next week supporting dry cool weather
here along with breezy conditions across CAPE cod and the
islands. Meanwhile we'll be watching a potential tropical system
tracking from the bahamas to well south of new england early to
middle of next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
730 pm update...

no significant changes to the near term forecast outside of
minor adjustments to bring in line with observations. Satellite
shows the back edge of the mid cloud deck approaching western
ma ct and will continue to clear from NW to SE over the next few
hours.

Previous discussion...

1026 mb high over the great lakes continues to advect a dry
airmass (dew pt down to 49 at bos) across the region. Very
pleasant 330 pm conditions with temps in the 70s (81 at boston)
and dew pts in the 50s.

However a potent northern stream short wave over the eastern
great lakes providing SW flow aloft across southern new england
and streaming warm advection cloudiness over the area. In fact
this short wave fairly potent and trying to develop a baroclinic
leaf on satellite over eastern pa to southeast ny. However with
frontal boundary well south of new england per offshore buoys
all reporting northerly winds, next frontal wave tracks well
south of new england with too much dry air over ct ri ma for any
risk of rain. Thus dry weather prevails this evening and
overnight.

Fairly light nnw winds shift to nne after midnight. Very
comfortable tonight with lows in the 50s regionwide, except low
to mid 60s along the coast including city of boston and possibly
providence too. But with dew pts in the 50s very comfortable.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
350 pm update ...

Saturday ...

1025+ mb high over ontario advects eastward into quebec,
providing a dry nne flow into southern new england. Expect highs
in the 70s and dew pts in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Definitely
a touch of early fall in the air. Cross sections reveal some
cirrus and diurnal CU scu so expect a mix of Sun and clouds
Saturday. Overall a real nice day by late aug standards.

Saturday night ...

northeast pressure gradient increases as frontal wave develops
well south of new england but combines with 1030 mb high (yeah a
sign of early fall) over the maritimes. Thus becoming breezy and
with a surge of wind and moisture off the atlantic expecting
scattered showers to come onshore especially toward Sunday
morning and over eastern ma into ri. Remainder of the region
should remain dry until Sunday.

Long term Sunday through Friday
350 pm update ...

highlights...

* expect much cooler than normal temperatures Sunday and Monday
especially along the east coast
* onshore winds will bring spotty light rain or showers at times
into mid week
* temperatures return to near normal levels around mid week
* another chance for showers late Wednesday into Thursday
details...

Sunday through Tuesday...

this period of the forecast will feature mostly dry conditions with
cooler than average temperatures throughout and comfortable
humidity. Sunday we see the high over northern new england shift
east a bit, bringing northerly winds around to the northeast. While
most of the column is very dry, below 850mb moisture advection off
the ocean will bring some low level cloud cover and light showers or
drizzle. The only locations that should deal with this would be
eastern ma into ri with clearer skies to further west. Not a washout
by any means, but could see scattered drizzle. A tightening pressure
gradient on the south end of the high will bring increasingly gusty
northeast winds, especially on the southern waters and along the
south coast where gusts will reach 25-30 mph. Those on the water
will likely see increased seas as well. Temperatures are quite a bit
below normal given h85 temps of 8c and onshore flow... Those along
the east coast may not make it out of the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday the inverted ridge of high pressure lingers over
sne helping keep things dry while the mid level low moves out
replaced by weak ridging. Mid level height rises and some drying at
the low levels should keep us mostly precip free, but with lingering
low mid level clouds each day. Onshore E NE flow continues
throughout keeping the immediate east coast cooler. Highs remain in
the low 70s, 5-10 degrees below average for late august. Comfortable
humidity sticks around too, with dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s. As
the high moves away the gradient relaxes and the gusty winds along
the south coast should subside through the day Monday.

Wednesday through Friday...

high degree of uncertainty with how mid-late week plays out,
dependent on the trajectory of two low pressure systems, including
one potential tropical system currently in the early stages of
development off the coast of florida which may pass sne somewhere
off the coast around mid week. At this point confidence is
increasing that we'll see temperatures moderating back toward normal
by Wed thur into the 70s and 80s as a warm frontal boundary moves
north. This, associated with a large low pressure system moving into
the hudson bay area. Ahead of its cold front warm moist air is
pulled up over the east coast Wednesday Thursday bringing rain and
thunderstorm chances back to the forecast late Wednesday and
Thursday. At this point the system off of florida looks to stay well
offshore of sne, phasing with the passing trough over the maritimes
by late week. This should limit any impacts in southern new england
to potentially some higher surf and rough seas, but given that this
is still 5-6 days out, much too soon to get into any
details... Something we will be monitoring over the next week.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ... Moderate confidence.

00z update ...

tonight ... VFR and dry weather with light nnw winds.

Saturday ... VFR with nnw winds becoming nne. Dry weather
continues.

Saturday night ... VFR to start but becoming MVFR from east to
west as nne onshore flow increases up to 20 kt across eastern
ma.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf
kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ... Moderate to high confidence.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Monday:VFR. Breezy.

Monday night:VFR.

Tuesday:VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Slight chance shra.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra, isolated tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ... High confidence.

350 pm update ...

tonight ...

large high pressure moves from the northern great lakes into
ontario providing dry weather across the southern new england
waters along with a modest nnw wind.

Saturday ...

large high pressure moves from ontario to quebec with modest nne
winds but dry weather continues.

Saturday night ...

a series of weak waves of low pres develop off the mid atlc
coast. This combines with strong 1030+ mb high pres over the
maritimes to yield NE 20-30 kt across the southern new england
waters. Strongest winds likely south of CAPE cod and the
islands. Scattered showers may lower vsby at times.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ... Moderate confidence.

Sunday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday night through Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Nocera bw
near term... Nocera bw
short term... Nocera
long term... Bw
aviation... Nocera bw
marine... Nocera bw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 3 mi90 min Calm 73°F 1014 hPa69°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 10 mi75 min 74°F1014.6 hPa (+0.0)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 11 mi45 min N 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 58°F
44090 22 mi45 min 69°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 27 mi75 min N 2.9 G 6 77°F1014.6 hPa (+0.6)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 31 mi75 min W 7 G 7 70°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.0)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 38 mi75 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 75°F 1014.7 hPa (+0.0)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 38 mi75 min 80°F1015.2 hPa (+0.4)
FRXM3 38 mi81 min 74°F 59°F
PRUR1 44 mi75 min 73°F 64°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 45 mi75 min WNW 5.1 G 8 67°F1014.8 hPa (-0.0)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 46 mi90 min NNW 1.9 71°F 1015 hPa64°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 46 mi75 min N 1.9 G 2.9 72°F 1015.5 hPa (+0.4)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 47 mi75 min NNW 8 G 9.9 74°F 78°F1015.2 hPa (+0.3)
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi85 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 67°F 1 ft1014.5 hPa (+0.5)61°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 49 mi81 min WNW 5.1 G 8 74°F 75°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA8 mi76 minN 010.00 miFair72°F60°F69%1014.9 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA12 mi82 minN 010.00 miFair69°F64°F84%1014.4 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA14 mi79 minN 010.00 miFair71°F61°F71%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFMH

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W8W8----W6NW5----N4--N4N4N6N11NW4NW4NW5N5N5N5N5CalmCalm
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--SW18--SW5SW3------SW8SW8W10SW13SW15W17W13
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2 days ago--S4S4CalmCalm------------CalmSW5SW5SW5SW5SW10SW12SW10SW10SW18SW16
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Tide / Current Tables for Succonnesset Point, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Succonnesset Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 11:59 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:27 PM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.40.71.11.41.61.71.71.410.70.40.30.40.71.11.41.71.91.91.61.30.90.5

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:55 AM EDT     2.82 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:42 AM EDT     -0.06 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:16 AM EDT     -3.35 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:25 PM EDT     2.80 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:10 PM EDT     -0.06 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT     -3.31 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:29 PM EDT     0.17 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.72.82.61.9-1.3-2.7-3.3-3.2-2.3-0.41.92.32.62.82.72.31-2.2-3.1-3.3-2.7-1.51.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.