Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 12:01 PM   Moonset 2:46 AM

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LEZ146 Expires:202404161415;;827599 Fzus51 Kcle 160804 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 404 am edt Tue apr 16 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145-146-161415- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- 404 am edt Tue apr 16 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through late tonight - .
Today - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet. Tonight - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 49 degrees, off cleveland 46 degrees, and off erie 48 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 160814 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 414 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure over the Central Plains will lift a warm front north across the area tonight into Wednesday. This system will then extend a cold front east through the area by Wednesday evening. Another cold front will cross the region towards the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Ridge of high pressure will build east this morning as a warm front lifts northeast across the region. Forecast soundings indicate very dry low levels present across much of the local area so continued the trend of including NBM 10% for dew points this morning and afternoon. Given the dry low levels, any showers that occur as the warm front lifts overhead will struggle to produce much if any precipitation beyond our extreme southwestern counties this afternoon.

Continued dry period for most tonight before rain moves into the region early Wednesday morning. Rain showers ahead of the surface front associated with an upper shortwave should exit east by Wednesday afternoon. A fairly moist airmass with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s will allow for MUCAPE values to approach 1500- 2000 J/kg. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the western half of our local forecast area in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather Wednesday afternoon. Tough to tell how much of the area can clear out ahead of the surface front and thus severe thunderstorm development is conditional how much we can destabilize during peak heating. Given steep mid level lapse rates, deep layer shear of 35-40 knots and a moist environment with low LCLs under 500 feet, all hazards are possible including large hail, tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. The best timing for strong to severe storms will generally be between 2 and 8 PM Wednesday. Outside of any severe threat, recent heavy rainfall may lead to areas of localized flooding on Wednesday. Any thunderstorm that produces heavy rainfall may lead to isolated flooding concerns. Overall storm total rainfall amounts generally range between 0.50 and 1 inch.

Highs today will rise into the 70s for most as the warm front surges northeast. Locations north of the warm front and along the lake shore will likely struggle to reach 70 but will still rise into the 60s. Warm overnight lows in the mid 50s to near 60s degrees tonight.
We'll remain in the warm sector for Wednesday and expect for another day of highs in the lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing and progressing across the forecast area early Wednesday night. It's possible there may be a severe weather threat ongoing early Wednesday night but thunderstorms are likely to be in a decaying state as instability dwindles after sunset.

A cold front extending from a slow-moving occluded low follows, moving across the area Wednesday night, with rain showers likely over by early Thursday morning. This low merges with another low incoming from the northwest, with a reinforcing, secondary cold front moving across the area Thursday night. This first front won't actually drop temperatures too much with highs in the 60s on Thursday.

Rain showers are likely to accompany the second cold front with PoPs increasing by 10-30% with this forecast iteration late Thursday night through the day Friday as models trended higher in precipitation chances and QPF. If this trend continues, would likely see PoPs continue to increase the next couple of days.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Temperatures cool down post-frontal over the weekend as high pressure builds in through Monday. Below normal temperatures are expected with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s with some frost possible, especially Sunday night into Monday morning when the surface high is expected to be overhead.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
High pressure ridging will continue to build eastward through early this morning. A warm front will begin to lift northeastward late this morning and afternoon. High level clouds will enter from southwest and move northeastward through the TAF period. Rain showers along the warm front will struggle to reach most terminals this afternoon and evening as we remain very dry in the low levels. For now, only have VCSH for showers associated with the warm front at KFDY.

Shower coverage will then increase from west to east late tonight into early Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Have begun to introduce VCSH for these showers at KTOL/KFDY/KMFD and at the 30 hour KCLE TAF. Can't rule out embedded thunder in showers late tonight/early Wednesday but opted to leave any thunder mention out of the TAF for now.

Somewhat light and variable winds overnight tonight become generally easterly at 5-10 knots by late morning. Winds begin to turn southeasterly near the end of the TAF period but will generally remain between 8 and 12 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms tonight through Wednesday. Non-VFR may return by Friday into Saturday in rain.

MARINE
High pressure departs to the east, with easterly winds strengthening to in advance of an approaching warm front. A small craft advisory was issued for waves of 3-5 feet and winds of 15-25 knots west of Cleveland this afternoon through late tonight. The warm front crosses the lake on Wednesday, followed quickly by a cold front Wednesday afternoon/evening and then a reinforcing cold front Friday. High pressure builds in through the weekend and early next week. Small craft advisory conditions are most likely Friday afternoon/night with westerly winds behind the secondary reinforcing cold front.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>146.

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