Tuesday, April20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Melville, RI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 7:33PM Tuesday April 20, 2021 5:51 AM EDT (09:51 UTC) Moonrise 11:57AMMoonset 2:36AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 416 Am Edt Tue Apr 20 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm edt this afternoon through this evening...
.gale watch in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening...
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft, except 4 to 6 ft at the bay entrance. Showers likely.
Thu and Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft, except 4 to 7 ft at the bay entrance.
Fri through Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 416 Am Edt Tue Apr 20 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A weak ridge of high pres will be over the waters today. A strong cold front will then cross the waters late Wed into Wed evening. Gale force nw wind gusts are likely behind this front Wed night into Thu. A ridge of high pres will then pass south of the waters Fri into Sat. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Melville, RI
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location: 41.58, -71.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 200850 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 450 AM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

SYNOPSIS.

Cold front slides through southern New England today bringing gusty winds and low relative humidities. Cannot rule out an isolated shower. Better chances of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday as a cold front moves through. Windy and much cooler weather follows behind the front late Wednesday night into Thursday, then a warming trend Friday and Saturday. A coastal storm may bring rain and coastal wind Sunday with improving conditions next Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

Highlights

* Elevated Fire Weather concerns across much of southern New England due to gusty winds coupled with low relative humidities.

* Cannot completely rule out an isolated shower as a cold front slides through.

Closed off low over eastern Ontario/western Quebec will lift into northern Quebec later today. A cold front will slide through southern New England as the day progresses.

Main change to the forecast from the previous shift was to increase wind speeds and gusts across southern New England. Anticipating strong mixing per the RAP/NAM/NAMNest and GFS Bufkit soundings. Should see the mixed layer grow to roughly 750-700 hPa depending on the model of choice. So, could potentially tap into some 40-50+ kt gusts if we can fully mix. Have leaned on the HRRRE/NAMNest guidance in the latest update to increase wind speeds and gusts, which brings 25-30 kt gusts in. Cannot completely rule out a few stray gusts getting into that higher territory, especially if a heavier shower or thunderstorm moves through.

Given the strong mixing have decreased the dewpoints and increased temperatures. Went with the 90th percentile of guidance for high temperatures today and the 10th percentile of guidance for dewpoints. High temperatures top out in the low to mid 70s across much of the region. The only exception is along the south coast, Cape Cod and the Islands where temperatures range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Minimum relative humidities fall into the 25 to 40 percent across the interior and 45 to 60 percent along the south coast.

Given the cold front working its way through have kept an isolated shower mention in the forecast. Thinking that the upper forcing is a bit weak given how far away the H5 cutoff is, but given the CVA and PWATs in the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range with the FROPA . think an isolated shower cannot be ruled out.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/.

Highlight

* Warm front lifts through southern New England tonight and cold front moves through majority of the region by late in the day. This will bring increasing chances of showers. Expecting some thunderstorm activity on Wednesday. Could have a few isolated damaging wind gusts.

Weak mid level ridging over the eastern Great Lakes/New England tonight while a trough digs into the central Great Lakes. The trough will lift into the eastern Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic on Wednesday. At the surface a warm front will lift through southern New England tonight. Low pressure will lift into New England and the cold front associated with it will slide through.

Tonight .

Increasing cloud cover as a warm front lifts into and through much of southern New England. Models still trending to bringing in precipitation slower, so have slowed down the precipitation onset. If there is any precipitation that falls it should be relatively light. Expect a mild night with 925 hPa temperatures in the +6 to +10 degree range. Low temperatures range form the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

Wednesday .

Another gusty day on tap for southern New England within the warm sector and ahead of an approaching cold front. Expecting a strong S/SSW low level jet with 925 hPa wind speeds of 35-45 kts. Expecting low level lapse rates between 7 to 9 degrees Celsius per/km and should be able to mix down the 25-30 kt gusts fairly easily. This may need to be increased in future updates if the mixed layer grows a bit more.

Within the warm sector am anticipating temperatures to get into the 60s across much of southern New England and potentially a few 70 degree readings with the strong mixing. Dew points will climb into the upper 40s to the low 50s with southerly flow. Do have a window where there is roughly a few hundred to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE with 0-6 km bulk shear in the 35-60 kt range with the shear vectors being a bit more parallel to the cold front moving in. This suggests a linear convective mode, which is what several CAMs suggest. However, the window to tap into the instability appears to be short lived and the line of showers/storms could have a weakening trend as it moves in from the west. Will be something to keep an eye on as there could be a fine line, and given the environment cannot rule out some isolated damaging wind gusts. The SPC risk has shifted the marginal risk northward in the latest update and just on the periphery of our CWA. This makes sense given the latest CAMs and trends models show with the line sliding in.

The upside with the front moving in is we will receive more much needed rainfall. Right now expecting roughly 0.1 to 0.75 inches of rain on Wednesday, though these amounts will be higher especially if there are any thunderstorms that move through.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/.

Highlights .

* Showers/isolated t-storms exiting eastern New Eng Wed evening * Windy and much cooler late Wed night and Thu * Dry with moderating temps Fri/Sat * Coastal storm may bring rain and coastal wind Sunday

Wednesday Night .

Surface wave will be lifting north of the region Wed evening with attendant cold front moving offshore. Lingering showers and isolated t-storms assocd with deep moisture plume and marginal elevated instability along the front will be exiting eastern New Eng during the evening. Behind the front, strong cold advection will result in gusty W/NW winds developing and much cooler temps as 850 mb temps drop to near -10C by 12z Thu. Lows will will fall to the low/mid 30s with upper 20s over higher terrain. Some upslope snow showers may spill across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires during the late evening and overnight.

Thursday .

Closed upper low will move east from northern New Eng with cyclonic flow across the region. Other than a few flurries or snow showers in the Berkshires and Worcester hills, mainly dry conditions expected with a mix of clouds and sun as bkn strato-cu develops given shallow low level moisture and steep low level lapse rates. Gusty winds and much cooler temps will be the main story for Thu. Soundings show a deep and well mixed boundary layer with potential for gusts 40+ mph with a lower risk for gusts to 50 mph. A wind advisory may eventually be needed. Temps will range through the 40s but the winds will make it feel in the 30s.

Friday and Saturday .

Height rises through Sat as upper trough exits with shortwave ridging moving in. High pres builds south of New Eng with dry weather and moderating temps. Highs should get back to near 60 on Fri in the coastal plain and interior valleys, warming to 65-70 Sat. It will still be a bit breezy on Fri.

Sunday into Monday .

While specific details and timing are uncertain at this time range, deterministic and ensemble guidance indicating a potential coastal storm may impact SNE on Sunday with rain and coastal wind. Conditions improving by Mon but there is uncertainty with how quickly the storm will exit and whether showers may linger into Mon.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/.

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z . High confidence.

Most areas will remain VFR with light SW to W winds. The only exception is across the CT River Valley and other spots across the interior where they received some rain today. The combination of clear skies and light winds will result in patchy radiation fog. Should see vsbys range between MVFR to IFR.

Today . High confidence.

VFR conditions expected with gusty WSW to SW winds. Most areas will see speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts of 25-30 kts. Not completely out of the question for a few 35+ kt gusts especially if any heavier showers move through. Though am thinking the shower activity will be isolated in nature. Have not included a mention in the latest set of TAFs as am uncertain on how widespread the coverage will be. Expecting the mixed layer to decouple between 22-01Z, which will bring an end to the gusty winds.

Tonight..High confidence.

VFR conditions expected with increasing clouds. Should see cloud bases generally between 5-10 kft. Scattered showers possible after midnight for far western areas after midnight. Light winds shifting to the S.

Wednesday . High confidence in trends moderate in timing.

Conditions deteriorating from VFR to start to MVFR/IFR and maybe some localized LIFR as showers and thunderstorms move through. S winds of 10-15 kts and gusts of 25-30 kts. Winds shifting to the SW/W across western areas late in the day as a cold front slides through.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance SHRA.

Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE.

Today . High confidence

Have a period of time this afternoon into the evening as a cold front approaches that there will be gusty SW winds at 15-20 kts and gusts of 25-30 kts at times. Have hoisted a Small Craft Advisory as a result.

Tonight . High Confidence

Southwest winds diminish and shift to a southerly direction. Waves 2-4 ft.

Wednesday . High confidence

Increasing southerly winds and gusts as the day progresses as another cold front moves in. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder later in the day.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening for ANZ231>235-237-250-251. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for ANZ230-236. Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening for ANZ254>256.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/BL NEAR TERM . BL SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . KJC AVIATION . KJC/BL MARINE . KJC/BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 2 mi52 min SW 6 G 6 47°F 47°F1011.2 hPa (+0.0)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi67 min SW 2.9 44°F 1012 hPa42°F
PRUR1 7 mi52 min 47°F 40°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi52 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 47°F 1011.7 hPa (+0.3)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 8 mi52 min Calm G 1 45°F 50°F1011.2 hPa (+0.0)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 11 mi52 min 48°F 51°F1010.9 hPa (+0.4)
PVDR1 15 mi52 min WSW 1 G 1.9 46°F 1011.5 hPa (+0.5)41°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 16 mi52 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 46°F 48°F1011.3 hPa (+0.4)
FRXM3 16 mi52 min 47°F 42°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi52 min SW 5.1 G 5.1 49°F 1011.3 hPa (+0.3)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 17 mi52 min 49°F 49°F1011.5 hPa (+0.3)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi52 min W 8 G 8.9 1012.1 hPa (+0.4)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 38 mi52 min 44°F 1011.9 hPa (+0.5)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 39 mi27 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 47°F 1011.1 hPa37°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 41 mi52 min 47°F 48°F1011.3 hPa (+0.5)
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 46 mi26 min 45°F1 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 46 mi52 min 48°F 47°F1011.8 hPa (+0.5)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 48 mi67 min Calm 49°F 1011 hPa

Wind History for Quonset Point, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI9 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair42°F38°F85%1010.9 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI10 mi61 minN 010.00 miFair44°F38°F79%1011.2 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI23 mi56 minW 410.00 miFair45°F41°F86%1011.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOQU

Wind History from OQU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------NW7NW11NW8NW10NW17N7SE8SW12SW14
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2 days agoE12E12E17E16NE15----------------N15--NW15NW20NW20--NW16NW20
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Tide / Current Tables for Wickford, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island (2)
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Wickford
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Tue -- 02:34 AM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:00 AM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:45 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:13 PM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:02 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.93.23.22.821.30.80.70.81.11.41.82.22.62.92.72.21.50.90.70.81.21.5

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
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Tue -- 01:22 AM EDT     1.40 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:00 AM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 03:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:53 AM EDT     -2.29 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:48 PM EDT     1.83 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:05 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:27 PM EDT     -2.20 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.41.30.5-0.8-1.9-2.3-1.8-1.1-0.30.30.81.31.71.81.30.1-1.3-2.1-2.1-1.5-0.8-0.30.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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