Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wappingers Falls, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:55PM Saturday January 18, 2020 7:04 PM EST (00:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:06AMMoonset 1:11PM Illumination 37% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 408 Pm Est Sat Jan 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Snow mixing with and changing to rain this evening. Scattered rain showers late. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late this evening.
Sun..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 408 Pm Est Sat Jan 18 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. As low pressure moves across the upper great lakes region, a warm front will approach from the south and enter the region this evening, followed by a cold front late tonight. The low will pass east of new england on Sunday. High pressure will then slowly build from the west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wappingers Falls, NY
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location: 41.58, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 182036 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 336 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. A fast moving storm system heading into the region from the Great Lakes will bring steady snow across the region into tonight. Some snow will continue across northern high terrain areas on Sunday, with blustery conditions for the entire area. Dry and cold weather will be in place for much of the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR:

Herkimer, Hamilton and northern Fulton counties of eastern New York, and Bennington and western Windham Counties in southern Vermont, The Lake George Saratoga region of eastern New York, eastern Windham County in southern Vermont, Berkshire County in western Massachusetts, and northern Litchfield County in northwest Connecticut .

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY for:

Snowing across the region and latest soundings show most of the saturated layer from the surface through midlevels is just under the layer of DGZ. Some -FZDZ/-FZRA in western NY associated with the nose of the boundary layer thermal ridge due to south winds and associated warm advection. This is apparent in the 18Z KBUF sounding and the 16Z KBGM NASA Impacts project sounding as well as some of the NY Mesonet profiler data.

So, as the isentropic lift and warm advection increases the remainder into this evening, the lower layers will warm and the snow to liquid ratios will be near climatology or just below climatology. Snow flakes outside the office and on NY State Mesonet web cams show very small snow flakes with few if any large dendrites. Some frontogenesis indicated in sources of guidance in the 850-700 hPa layer and 700-500 hPa layer but the zone of enhanced frontogenesis is quick to exit this evening. Enhanced upslope flow into the southern Adirondacks, northern Saratoga Region, southern Green Mountains and northern Berkshires will result in localized heavier snowfall.

Some downslope flow will cause some reduction in snowfall in the Hudson Valley between the Capital Region and mid Hudson Valley while some mix with very light freezing drizzle and freezing rain this evening will reduce snow amounts in the mid Hudson Valley to areas near and south of the MA/CT border. Headlines remain the same as snow totals in sources of guidance still consistent with multiple previous versions. So, steady snow ending this evening along and south of the Mohawk Valley to Berkshires but lingering in northern areas most of the night. Transition to snow showers as steady snow ends. Winds becoming gusty toward daybreak could result in blowing and drifting of snow.

Text forecasts will include additional snowfall only because the snow has started everywhere. However,the WSW and web graphics will indicate the storm total snowfall to match the headlines.

Temperatures will rise slowly through the night as the low level thermal ridge tracks into the region. So, temperatures should rise well into the 20s by daybreak but around 30 to lower 30s Hudson Valley to NW CT and southern Berkshires.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/. Upper energy exits through the day Sunday with strong west to northwest boundary layer flow turning to north by late in the day. Upper energy and lake effect moisture will result in some fairly widespread snow shower activity into the southern Adirondacks and upslope into the southern Green Mountains. Some line segments of snow showers could accompany the leading edge of the deeper cold advection and boundary layer wind shift to north. So, indicating isolated to scattered snow showers in many areas outside of lake effect and upslope. Highs in the 30s but 20s northern areas and near 40 southern areas. Winds will be gusty to 35 mph or more in some areas. Whatever snow is on the ground will drift in the morning but areas that get above freezing will see less blowing and drifting.

Deep cold advection Sunday night through Monday night. Winds will diminish later Sunday night and through the day Monday. Highs Monday in the 20s to near 30 but teens northern areas. Weak warm advection begins Tuesday but with the low level ridging overhead and light winds, temperatures will not warm much. Highs in the 20s to near 30 with teens in northern areas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. A dry pattern is in store for much of the long range period. The next system may return next weekend with mixed rain/snow.

High pressure will build across the eastern United States Tuesday night into Wednesday and remain the dominant feature through Friday. This will result in generally dry weather across the region with a gradual rise in temperatures throughout the period. With enough cold air to start, lake-effect snow showers off Lake Ontario will continue to affect parts of the Adirondacks Tuesday night, but will come to an end Wednesday morning. Highs Wednesday will range from the 20s in the higher elevations to the low to mid-30s in the valleys. By Friday, temperatures will range from the 30s in the higher elevations to the low to mid-40s in the valleys.

By Saturday, forecast models indicate a closed upper-level low tracking across the Midwest while a possible dual-low forms at the surface (one across the Ohio Valley and another off the mid-Atlantic coast). This will bring the return of clouds and precipitation. Current thermal profiles suggest mixed rain/snow is possible. With this storm several days away, changes to its track and potential p- types are likely to occur in future model runs. Regardless, allowed for at least chance pops with this Saturday system.

AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Snow is tracking northeastward towards the TAF sites as of 18z. Initially, the terminal airports should brief periods of light to briefly moderate snow with breaks of dry weather at times. However, the main area of moderate to heavy snow is on track to impact the region between 21z and 03z today with IFR visibility and ceilings likely. After 03z, the steady snow should end (except at perhaps GFL where light snow may linger overnight) but spotty freezing drizzle may ensue. We still do not have enough confidence to include freezing drizzle at this time so we included VCSH and kept MVFR visibility and ceilings in place to lingering low clouds and patchy fog.

Light southeast winds this afternoon should strengthen heading towards 00z ranging between 5-10kts. Winds then should become southerly towards 06z and eventually southwesterly. Towards 14z, winds shift to the west and become gusty by late morning sustained between 10-15kts with gust up 25-30kts.

Outlook .

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Martin Luther King Jr Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY. Fast moving storm system will spread widespread snowfall to the region through tonight, with some lingering snow across the Adirondacks and Greens into Sunday. Nearly all the precip will be frozen and total liquid equivalent will be 0.25 to 0.75 inches. This snowfall won't have any immediate impact on rivers and streams.

Behind this storm system, dry and cold weather is expected into much of the upcoming week. This will allow river ice to form and strengthen on areas bodies of water.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for CTZ013. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for CTZ001. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for NYZ040- 047>049-051>054-058>061-063>066. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ039-041>043- 050-083-084. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for NYZ032-033-038- 082. MA . Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for MAZ001-025. VT . Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for VTZ015. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for VTZ013-014.

SYNOPSIS . NAS NEAR TERM . NAS SHORT TERM . NAS LONG TERM . Rathbun AVIATION . Speciale HYDROLOGY . NAS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 17 mi34 min SSE 1.9 21°F 1020 hPa20°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 30 mi34 min Calm 19°F 1016 hPa17°F
TKPN6 30 mi70 min 19°F 33°F1018.5 hPa18°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 47 mi64 min SE 7.8 G 12 29°F 28°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi64 min 29°F 40°F1018.5 hPa (-6.8)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi71 minN 01.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist23°F19°F88%1017.9 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi79 minSW 50.75 miLight Snow23°F23°F100%1017.6 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY17 mi70 minNNE 31.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist19°F16°F88%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5CalmCalmN3NE5N4N43N7N6N6N5E3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalm3SE5SE5SE6Calm
1 day agoNW8
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5CalmN3CalmNW5Calm3S45SW11W18
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Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:44 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:25 AM EST     3.01 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:10 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:23 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:42 PM EST     2.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.10.31.222.6332.621.30.80.40.10.20.81.52.12.52.62.41.91.30.8

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:19 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:07 AM EST     2.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:11 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:58 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:24 PM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-00.61.42.22.72.92.82.31.71.10.60.20.10.411.72.22.52.52.21.610.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.