Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wappingers Falls, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:34PM Monday June 21, 2021 4:00 AM EDT (08:00 UTC) Moonrise 5:08PMMoonset 2:49AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 325 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog early this morning. Slight chance of showers and tstms late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this morning.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the evening.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming ne around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 325 Am Edt Mon Jun 21 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will slowly approach late today into Tuesday, then pass east Tuesday night. High pressure settles over the northeast Wednesday then shifts offshore late in the week. The next frontal system approaches from the west near the end of the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wappingers Falls, NY
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location: 41.58, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 210528 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 128 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will move across the region tonight with some isolated showers or thunderstorms. A hot and humid air mass will open the first full day of summer. The threat of strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall ahead of a cold front will increase Monday afternoon into the evening. A much cooler air mass will build into the region in the wake of the cold front on Tuesday with showers ending.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. UPDATE. Dewpoint boundary will continue to lift northward across the area overnight. A cluster of storms over the central Mohawk Valley and Saratoga County will continue to track northeastward. This activity is expected to weaken as it moves away from the unstable air, however there is elevated instability supporting thunder. Warm, muggy night with lows in the 60s expected in the 50s across the southern Adirondacks and higher terrain of the southern Greens.

PREVIOUS [0753]. Tranquil conditions in place early this evening. Moderate instability in place south of Albany, although no forcing mechanisms present for any showers or storms at this time. Also, near term forecast soundings indicate plenty of dry air aloft.

Nearest cluster of convective showers and thunderstorms currently near KBGM over the southern tier of NY. This activity should generally track NE tonight and possibly move into the northwest half of our region overnight. CAMs have been inconsistent in showing where this convection will track. This activity should generally hold together, as a warm front/dewpoint boundary lifts northward overnight resulting in sufficient instability and moisture. For now will mention isolated to widely scattered showers and storms for areas north of Albany after midnight, but the timing/coverage will likely need to be refined with the next update later this evening. Will continue to monitor trends.

A weak surface anticyclone will move away from the region into tonight. The mid and upper level flow becomes southwesterly ahead of an approaching upper level trough over the Great Lake Region and Upper Midwest.

The warm front or leading edge of humid air will move northward across the region tonight, as the boundary layer flow increases out of the south. Showalter values dip in the zero to -3C range. The elevated instability, and increased low-level theta-e advection will allow for some isolated showers or thunderstorms to form overnight. The better elevated instability expands northward between 06Z-12Z/MON. Slight to low chance PoPs were kept in north and west of the Capital Region. It will become muggy with lows in the 60s and a few upper 50s over the southern Dacks.

Summer begins at 1132 pm EDT tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Heat Advisory posted for the Hudson River Valley including the Glens Falls area, southern Washington and Montgomery Counties noon to 6 pm EDT Monday .

Marginal to Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Monday Afternoon into the Evening .

Tomorrow . The first full day of summer will likely begin with a bang! Heat and humidity surges into the forecast area in a warm sector ahead of a pre-frontal sfc trough and a cold front. Sfc dewpts surge into the 60s . possibly widespread mid and upper 60s with isolated 70F readings. H850 rise above normal into the +17C to +19C range. The combination of the heat and humidity will allow for heat indices to get into the mid and upper 90s in the Hudson River Valley including the Capital District, Saratoga Glens Falls area, and portions of the central Mohawk Valley, so a Heat Advisory has been posted. An expansion of the head line may be needed.

The instability will build across the region with SBCAPES reaching the 1500-2500+ J/kg range. The 0-6 km bulk shear increases to 30-40+ kts especially from the Capital Region north and west, and the low-level jet increases from the south during the late morning into the afternoon. The pre-frontal trough /PFT/ likely focuses some organized deep convection with multi- cells and some supercells in the early to mid pm. Mid level lapse rates are marginal at 6-6.5C/km but model sounding indicate thick CAPE between -10C and -30C. DCAPE values increase greater than 1000 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates. We believe damaging winds will be the main threat, but some large hail and isolated tornadoes are possible W/NW of Albany. The latest 12Z HREFS have STP values 1 to 3 over the northern zones closer to the low-level jet.

All modes of severe look possible and any discrete convection should form into lines ahead of the PFT and then the cold front which arrives towards nightfall. The SPC Day 2 Outlook looks good and the greatest threat of severe weather looks like the I-90 corridor including the Capital District and northern Berks north and west into the eastern Catskills 18Z/2 pm MON to 04Z/Midnight. Max temps will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the valleys, and upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mtns. See the hydro section for the heavy rain threat.

Monday night . Convection continues into the night time period with strong upper jet dynamics arriving, but instability will be waning. Heavy rain will continue to be a threat with PWATS a couple STDEVs above normal in the 1.25-1.75" range with slightly higher amounts. We will continue to monitor for locally heavy rainfall, but the convection should weaken after 06Z/TUE. Lows will be in the 50s west of the Hudson River Valley, and lower to mid 60s to the east with spotty cooler values over the higher terrain.

Tue-Tue night . The cold front slowly moves across the region with occasional showers through the morning, but the pcpn should diminish to the north and west of the Capital Region by the afternoon, and quickly moving move away to the south and east by the mid to late pm. It will be much cooler and brisk with highs only the 60s to lower 70s with some upper 50s over the mtns. The chilly air mass builds in Tue night with decreasing winds clearing skies. Lows will be 40s with some upper 30s over the southern Dacks, and eastern Catskills.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The period starts out on Wednesday with an upper level short wave exiting to our east in New England and surface high pressure in place. This should result in dry conditions with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with 850 mb temp anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV forecast from the NAEFS ensemble. Highs should run about 5-10 degrees below normal with.

High pressure will gradually shift eastward off the New England coast on Thursday, but still providing dry conditions. Low level flow will become southerly, allowing for temperatures to warm closer to normal for highs after a cool start to the day. Humidity levels will continue to be noticeably low with dewpoints mainly in the 40s to lower 50s.

Further warming is expected on Friday, as upper level heights rise and low level southerly flow increases. An upper level trough will start to approach from the Midwest and upper Great Lakes, but should remain far enough to our west for continued dry conditions.

Next weekend looks to be rather unsettled, as the aforementioned upper level trough upstream moves eastward with the main trough axis remaining just to our west across the central/lower Great Lakes. This will provide a warm/moist south- southwest flow across the Northeast. PWAT anomalies are forecast to rise to +1 to +2 STDEV and a surface front may stall somewhere over the region. Too far out to pinpoint specific details, but showers with some thunderstorms seem likely with locally heavy rainfall at times especially late Saturday through Sunday. ECMWF/GFS in generally decent agreement with regards to the upper level pattern evolution. Will mention highest probability for more widespread showers and storms on Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be moving close to KGFL over the next 30 to 90 minutes. A brief downpour and rumble of thunder is possible and there could be some MVFR visibility. Otherwise, the remainder of the area with remain quiet, with just sct-bkn mid/high level clouds and light winds. While most of the area should stay VFR for the rest of the overnight hours, some MVFR stratus is possible right around daybreak at KPOU. Any stratus looks to break up by 13z-15z for KPOU.

Otherwise, it will be VFR for much of the day on Monday with just sct-bkn high clouds and southerly winds around 10 kts. A few higher gusts are possible at KALB, especially during the afternoon.

A cold front will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms to the region, but this look to occur late in the day, probably after 23z- 00z. IFR/MVFR visibility/cigs are possible within these showers and thunderstorms, as well as some higher wind gusts as well. This activity should be cleared off the area to the east by around midnight (04z Tuesday).

Outlook .

Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night to Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

FIRE WEATHER. A warm front will move across the region tonight with some isolated showers or thunderstorm. A hot and humid air mass will open the first full day of summer. The threat of strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall ahead of a cold front will increase Monday afternoon into the evening. A much cooler air mass will build into the region in the wake of the cold front on Tuesday with showers ending.

The RH values will rise to 85 to 100 percent tonight. The RH values will drop to the 45 to 60 percent range Monday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms moving into the region. The max RH values will be close to 100 percent Tuesday morning.

The winds will become southerly at 5 to 15 mph tonight. Southerly winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph Monday afternoon with some gusts 30 to 35 mph possible in the Hudson Valley. The winds will shift to the southwest to west at 10 to 15 mph Monday night.

Stronger wind gusts are possible with thunderstorms Monday afternoon into the evening.

HYDROLOGY. No significant hydro issues are expected on the main stem rivers the next several days.

Late this pm into tonight looks to be mainly dry with isolated showers or thunderstorms ahead of a warm front.

There is a potential for locally heavy rain Monday into Tuesday ahead of a pre frontal trough and a cold front. Some notable within bank rises may occur on creeks, streams, brooks and maybe main stem rivers. Ponding of water on roadways and standing water in low lying areas is possible in thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. Poor drainage flooding is also possible.

The showers should end Tuesday late morning into the afternoon with bodies of water seeing lowering flows and levels as a dry period of weather occurs through the mid week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ040-041-049-050-052-053-059-060-064-065-083-084. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Wasula NEAR TERM . IAA/JPV/Wasula SHORT TERM . Wasula LONG TERM . JPV AVIATION . Frugis FIRE WEATHER . Wasula HYDROLOGY . NAS/Wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 17 mi91 min WSW 1 74°F 1008 hPa70°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 30 mi91 min Calm 72°F 1006 hPa69°F
TKPN6 30 mi43 min S 5.1 G 6 73°F 77°F1006.4 hPa69°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 47 mi46 min S 5.8 G 7.8 70°F 68°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi43 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 70°F 68°F1007.3 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi68 minSSE 410.00 miFair70°F67°F90%1006.2 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi76 minVar 410.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F70°F94%1007.4 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY17 mi67 minN 08.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F66°F97%1007 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmSW6SW83Calm3CalmW7SE846SW7S7SW6S4SE6SE5SE3SE3CalmSE3SE4Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:22 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:36 AM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:31 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:14 PM EDT     3.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.610.50.20.311.92.52.92.92.72.21.50.80.40.10.10.71.82.73.43.73.6

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:57 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:18 AM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:06 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:56 PM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.30.80.30.20.51.32.12.62.82.82.51.91.20.60.200.31.12.12.93.43.63.4

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