Sunday, February23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wappingers Falls, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 5:39PM Sunday February 23, 2020 2:57 AM EST (07:57 UTC) Moonrise 8:03AMMoonset 6:41PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 918 Pm Est Sat Feb 22 2020
Overnight..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Wed..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 918 Pm Est Sat Feb 22 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains in control through Monday. Weakening low pressure approaches from the south and west Monday night, stalling south of the region on Tuesday as a frontal boundary. A stronger area of low pressure approaches on Wednesday and moves across the area Wednesday night and Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wappingers Falls, NY
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location: 41.58, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 230536 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1236 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. Fair and mild weather is expected Sunday and Monday. A low pressure system will bring periods of precipitation Tuesday through Thursday with mild temperatures continuing.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. As of 1236 AM EST . IR satellite imagery shows completely clear skies over eastern NY and western New England again and with a large area of high pressure located south of the area over the mid Atlantic states, these clear skies should continue through most of the entire overnight hours. There are some patchy cirrus clouds across the Great Lakes and these clouds start to spread towards northern areas towards daybreak, otherwise, skies will be clear with continued dry weather.

Similar to last night, temperatures are variable again early this morning. Sheltered valley areas with calm winds are mainly in the teens, while large valley and higher terrain sites are seeing a light breeze, keeping temperatures elevated into the 20s. Through the remainder of the overnight hours, temperatures will continue to be variable over short distances, depending on both wind and elevation. Overall, most locations should fall into the upper teens to low 20s for lows, but a few spots could be as chilly as the single digits depending on local terrain.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/. Sunday into Monday, a low pressure system moving from the Canadian Prairies into Quebec will draw up a progressively milder airmass into the Northeast, with 925 mb temperatures reaching 0 to 5C by Monday. A weak shortwave will pass through the region on Sunday, which could result in some scattered midlevel clouds, but otherwise plenty of sunshine is expected. Forecast soundings show good mixing for this time of year, with highs likely around 10F above normal. Monday, highs are expected to be even a few degrees warmer than Sunday, with 50s expected in the Hudson Valley from the Capital District on south. Clouds will increase late in the day into the overnight hours ahead of a low pressure system moving into the Ohio Valley.

Monday night into Tuesday, moisture and lift associated with the approaching Ohio Valley low will slow their northeastward progress as the low weakens and drifts northward. Still, some light precipitation will be possible, particularly later on Tuesday as isentropic lift increases modestly. Early indication on p-type is mainly rain for the valleys given the antecedent mild airmass, with some snow or rain/snow mix for higher elevations. Increased lows Monday night from blended guidance given increasing cloud cover and mild airmass such that below freezing temperatures are confined to the high terrain north of I-90.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. An active weather pattern ensues for the final days of February with multiple chances for precipitation. Initially, precipitation looks to fall as a cold rain for most except for a brief period of snow at the onset for the higher terrain. However, by Thursday, a much colder air mass surges into the Northeast leading to wrap around/upslope snow showers that may transition to a potentially notable lake effect snow shower event for Friday/Saturday. Read on for details.

We start off the long term on Tuesday night with a deepening cut-off low in the Midwest with southwesterly flow downstream strengthening and leading to warm air advection and isentropic lift over the Northeast. While current guidance does not show an anchoring high to our north, we do notice a large area of high pressure over central and eastern Canada with some weak cold air damming signatures present as overrunning precipitation ensues Tuesday night. This suggests that higher elevations and areas north of I-90 could be cold enough to initially support a period of snow, especially as wet- bulbing processes allow for diabatic cooling, while valley areas should likely experience a cold rain or brief rain/snow mix before becoming rain. Temperatures Tuesday night should gradually warm overnight.

The best mid-level moisture escapes to our north during the day on Wednesday as the impressive closed/mature low remains in place over the Midwest with the ECWMF and CMC-NH showing its warm sector and mid-level dry slot pushing into the Northeast. As a result, precipitation (mainly in the form of rain) should become lighter and more disorganized but due to continued warm air advection, we still show chance or likely POPs. Temperatures Wednesday will be milder than normal thanks to warm sector influence so except highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Our closed low intensifies further heading into Wednesday night as the overall trough becomes negatively tilted and guidance continues to show its potent cold front sweeping into the Northeast Wednesday evening with a secondary low developing either off the NJ coast or over New England. Should this occur, eastern NY/western New England would be on the northwest quadrant of the developing low which could lead to a period of moderate precipitation moving into our area. Given the run-to-run consistency regarding this intensification, we decided to continue showing likely POPs after 00z Thursday.

A much colder air mass quickly wraps into the region behind the system's potent cold front and as the winds in the boundary layer quickly shift westerly and cool, enough mild air may remain the mid- levels that the western Adirondacks and southern Greens mix with some sleet before becoming snow Wednesday night. Other areas should see a transition from rain to snow overnight. Uncertainty remains regarding how much precipitation falls once the temperature profiles become cold enough to support snow. This is something we will have to iron out as the event gets closer but current guidance suggests a quick end to the steady precipitation; however, the mature/upper level closed low looks to move into Ontario for Thursday with cold air advection continuing throughout the day leading to wrap around and upslope snow showers. Valley areas may be mild enough to support rain/snow mix as highs look to rise into the mid-upper 30s.

By Thursday night, a secondary reinforcing shot of cold air moves into the Northeast and with the Lake Ontario waters still mild, the critical delta-T should be well surpassed as 850mb isotherms are currently analyzed to fall to -16C to -18C. This should allow lake effect snow showers to ensue and with the favorable westerly flow continuing into Friday, lake effect snow could continue into the daytime. Depending on the exact wind regime and instability profiles, this could lead to a notable lake effect event. Temperatures turn much cooler Friday and Saturday with highs only reaching into the 20s with overnight lows falling into the teens and single digits.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High pressure in control of the weather. VFR conditions will prevail through this evening.

Variable to west and southwest winds at 6 Kt or less will become south to southwest by mid to late morning at around 6 Kt. Winds will diminish to near calm this evening.

Outlook .

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Definite RA. SN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Definite RA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact Definite RA. SN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

HYDROLOGY. Dry weather is expected to continue through Monday, allowing for river and stream levels across eastern New York and western New England to remain steady. Although overnight lows will be below freezing, daytime highs will be rising above freezing for most areas and will be above normal.

There will be a chance for some light precipitation to return Tuesday into Tuesday night, with a better chance for more appreciable precipitation on Wednesday into Thursday. At this point, amounts don't appear large enough to have a big hydrologic impact, although some minor rises are possible. Although temperatures will continue to be mild through the middle of the week, colder weather looks to return for the late week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.


ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Thompson NEAR TERM . Frugis SHORT TERM . Thompson LONG TERM . Speciale AVIATION . NAS HYDROLOGY . Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 17 mi88 min NE 1.9 25°F 1023 hPa18°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 30 mi88 min Calm 26°F 1021 hPa19°F
TKPN6 30 mi64 min Calm G 0 26°F 33°F1022.4 hPa21°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 47 mi58 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9 37°F 28°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi64 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 30°F 39°F1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair22°F16°F78%1021.5 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi73 minN 010.00 miClear28°F17°F64%1021.7 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY17 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair20°F15°F81%1021.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN8NW5--NW7
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2 days agoW6W4W9CalmCalmCalmCalm5W105W12W11W10
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Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:28 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:02 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:33 AM EST     New Moon
Sun -- 12:13 PM EST     3.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:41 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:58 PM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.62.11.50.90.4-000.61.52.32.93.23.12.61.91.20.5-0-0.30.10.91.72.4

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:03 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:02 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:33 AM EST     New Moon
Sun -- 11:55 AM EST     3.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:42 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:33 PM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.41.81.20.70.2-0.10.20.91.72.42.93.12.92.31.60.90.3-0.2-0.20.41.21.92.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.