Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wappingers Falls, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 7:48PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 9:18 PM EDT (01:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:59PMMoonset 11:48AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 412 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
.severe Thunderstorm watch 609 in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms until early morning.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds around 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 412 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will slowly approach the waters through Thursday, passing Thursday night. High pressure builds in behind the front through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wappingers Falls, NY
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location: 41.58, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 220044
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
844 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms have ended across the region. After a
break in the active weather overnight, scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday
night, mainly for areas south of albany as a cold front slowly
crosses the area. Drier, cooler and less humid conditions are
expected for Friday into Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Severe thunderstorm watch 609 has expired.

As of 844 pm edt... Showers and thunderstorms have moved
southeast of the region, so the threat for severe weather has
ended. There may be an isolated shower or two overnight, but
most of the area will be dry. Patchy fog is expected to develop
as much of the area had rainfall earlier and low level moisture
remains tonight.

The main cold front will still be to the north and west of the
region overnight, so the air mass will remain relatively warm
and humid. Low temps will mainly be in the 60s.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Friday night
Thursday will start out dry, although the main cold front will
still have to push through the eastern 2 3 of the area.

Mid upper level winds will be generally parallel to the
boundary, so it will take until evening to push through the se
part of the area. Models including the href indicating potential
for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, as sbcape
values of around 500-800 j kg along with 0-6 km shear of 40+ kt.

If updrafts can grow tall enough, there would be a threat for
gusty winds. The storm prediction center has placed areas south
and east of albany in a marginal risk for severe storms. High
temps will range from cooler 70s north and west of the hudson
valley, to 80s from the hudson valley into NW ct.

A weak wave of low pressure may develop along the cold front as
it passes south and east of our region Thursday night. Some
showers may spread northward into SE portions of our area. Will
mention chance pops for this area, although these may need to be
raised with subsequent forecasts if trends continue.

Unsettled weather should finally end on Friday, as an upper
level trough settles in, with northerly surface winds pushing
any remaining surface boundaries well south of our region.

Humidity levels will be noticeably lower, with dewpoints
dropping through the 50s. Temperatures will be seasonable for
late august, with upper 60s in the higher terrain and upper 70s
in the hudson valley. Dry and cool conditions will continue
through Friday night, with a northerly flow persisting.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
On Saturday, a positively tilted long wave trough will be over
the northeast u.S. As the trough tries to cross the area
Saturday night into Sunday, deterministic model guidance
suggests that the trough closes off over new york. Only the
21 12z GEFS does not close off the low. This closed low then
wobbles around new york, new jersey and new england into Monday
before lifting northeast into northern new england later Monday.

Fair weather is expected on Saturday, but by Sunday and Monday,
the cyclonic flow aloft coupled with a cold pool of -10 to -15c
and afternoon heating, will likely result in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon
and evening.

For Monday night and Tuesday morning, upper level ridging
should build back in resulting in fair weather. However,
additional showers and thunderstorms are possible later Tuesday
as a warm front approaches.

Temperatures Saturday through Monday should be slightly below
normal as 850mb temperatures remain in the single digits through
the period. Lows during this period mainly in the 50s with 40s
in the normally cold spots. Highs mainly in the 70s with 60s
across the higher elevations. Tuesday will be warmer with lows
in the 50s to around 60 and highs mainly in the 70s to near 80.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
Thunderstorm threat remains for kpou for 1-2 hours. Thunderstorm
threat for this evening is over for kgfl, kalb and kpsf.

During a thunderstorm at kpou, brief periods of ifr vsby and
MVFR ceilings are possible but outside of thunderstorm expect
mainlyVFR conditions.

Since winds will remain under 5kts and rain today has led to
moist ground and low level conditions, some mist and MVFR
ceilings or brief ifr ceilings (especially 06z 22 to 12z 22) may
develop, especially at kgfl kpsf. Visibility restrictions after
06z are also possible at all TAF sites. Did not include reduced
visibility at kalb and kpou during this update but next cycle may
adjust.

After sunrise, ifr MVFR ceilings and or visibility should return to
vfr as winds shift to west or northwest generally after 13z-15z
with the frontal passage. Winds will also increase to 5-10kts
with gusts to 20 kt during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will continue to move
eastward across the region into this evening. After a break in
the active weather overnight, scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night,
mainly for areas south of albany as a cold front slowly crosses
the area. Drier, cooler and less humid conditions are expected
for Friday into Saturday.

Minimum relative humidity values will increase to around 100
percent tonight. Rh values will decrease to minimum values of
around 45 to 55 percent on Thursday, and increase to around 85
to 100 percent Thursday night.

Winds tonight will be south-southwest around 5 mph, shifting to the
west around 5 to 10 mph on Thursday. Winds Thursday night will be
northwest around 5 mph.

Hydrology
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to gradually
move eastward across much of the region into this evening.

Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, as a humid
air mass is in place. Though individual storms may be fast
moving, there is potential for repeated rounds of storms which
will lead to the threat of urban poor drainage flooding and
possible isolated flash flooding. Localized rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches will occur in some areas.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
Thursday into Thursday night, mainly for areas south of albany.

Most of this activity will be light, but brief downpours will be
possible in any thunderstorms.

Dry conditions are expected Friday into Saturday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Jpv
near term... Jpv
short term... Jpv
long term... Snd
aviation... Snd
fire weather... Jpv
hydrology... Kl jpv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 17 mi48 min NNE 2.9 73°F 1012 hPa70°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 30 mi48 min Calm 71°F 1011 hPa70°F
TKPN6 30 mi48 min Calm G 1 71°F 80°F1011.4 hPa71°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi54 min SW 7 G 9.9 77°F 78°F1010.7 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi85 minN 710.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity78°F69°F74%1010.7 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi93 minSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F73°F84%1011.5 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY17 mi84 minS 310.00 miFair74°F72°F94%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E5CalmCalmSE4S6SW5N73CalmCalm56SW12
G19
CalmN7Calm
1 day ago------------------CalmCalmCalmN5E4CalmCalmNW5W6SW7SW6W7CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE3SW3CalmCalmCalmSE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS34SW6S7W7SW7NW10W6W5W6----

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
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Wed -- 04:31 AM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:57 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:52 PM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:27 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.52.22.62.82.82.62.21.50.90.60.50.61.21.92.62.92.92.82.51.91.30.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:13 AM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:32 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:34 PM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:02 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.72.32.62.72.72.41.91.20.70.50.50.81.42.12.62.82.82.72.31.71.10.90.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.