Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wickliffe, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The cold front is almost through the entire forecast area, stretching from Morrow to Trumbull counties. Rain and some limited thunder remains southeast of the front but will continue to trend toward dry. The severe weather threat has ended.

600 PM Update...
The main show of an MCS has departed to the southeast through the Pittsburgh Metro area and the eastern half of the forecast area is largely convection-free. All of the Severe Thunderstorm Watches have been taken down for our area. Some storms have formed ahead of the cold front with some cells stretching from the Lake Erie Islands to west of Findlay and will continue east tonight. There is a small window where these storms could intensify and will bear watching. However, temperatures where storms went through earlier this afternoon have not recovered into the 70s and remain worked over. Therefore, anything east of I-71 is probably out of play for more severe weather action. We will continue to monitor this evening.

Previous Discussion...
An MCS with a bowing line of severe storms is racing east- northeast across east-central OH as we come up on 4:00 PM. These severe storms are grazing locations from Millersburg to Youngstown along our southern fringe with a risk for damaging winds, for which a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 7:00 PM. Additional cells are firing northeast of this cluster and are gradually intensifying as they push into Northwest PA. These cells may pose a risk for hail/wind before exiting Northwest PA early this evening, for which Erie and Crawford Counties are included in a separate Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10:00 PM. These watches will be trimmed and adjusted as needed through the evening.

Additional scattered thunderstorms extend from southeast Lower MI into extreme Northwest OH and Northeast IN along the cold front itself, which will push southeast into the area this evening. There is a narrow window just ahead of the cold front across Northwest OH, Lake Erie, and surrounding lakeshore counties towards Cleveland where a moderately unstable and untouched airmass resides. A lot of dry air, along with poor mid-level lapse rates, may make it difficult for strong to severe storms to develop and persist with the cold front.
However, forcing will increase a touch early this evening as a shortwave over the Great Lakes glances the local area. This may briefly allow for some severe threat to play out with the cold frontal convection. Deep-layer shear of 40-50kt, 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE, 700-900 J/KG of DCAPE, steep low-level lapse rates, and effective storm relative helicity increasing to 150-250 m2/s2 could support a threat for damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a non-zero (but fairly modest) tornado risk with this cold frontal convection. This threat may maximize from about Findlay to Medina to Ashtabula points northwest, before sunset and running into a more overturned airmass causes the convection to begin weakening. This threat isn't quite as confident due to some competing factors mentioned above, though am concerned we'll see some severe threat start to emerge along the cold front by 5 or 6 PM before diminishing towards 8 or 9 PM.

Quiet weather is anticipated for Wednesday as high pressure slides through the Great Lakes. A warm front approaches late Wednesday night, bringing the next chance for rain showers. Lows tonight fall into the 40s late. Highs on Wednesday will range from the 50s near Lake Erie to the 60s well-inland. Lows Wednesday night in the 40s to low 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Low pressure will be moving northeast towards the Great Lakes Thursday as a warm front pushes north of the local area. This low will bring a cold front eastward through the area Thursday night as it lifts northeast into southeast Ontario. A sharper, positively tilted mid/upper trough will dig southeast through the upper Midwest towards the lower Great Lakes Friday and through the local area Friday night. This will promote a prolonged period of rain chances through the end of the work week, with the best chances for precipitation Thursday with the low passage. SPC continues to highlight the area with a marginal risk for severe weather on Thursday. Modest destabilization in the warm sector with and increasing southwesterly mid level jet will promote an environment favorable for organized severe convection, although this will be largely conditional on the degree of destabilization. The best timing for severe weather thermodynamically will be mid/late afternoon, although the better forcing and deep layer flow slightly offset towards the mid afternoon through early evening timeframe.
Lingering precipitation chances continue Friday after the front moves through as the next upper shortwave approaches the area. Highs Thursday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Highs Friday will be cooler in the mid 60s to near 70. Lows Thursday night will be in the mid 50s to low 60s, cooling to the mid to upper 40s Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Upper trough over the area early Saturday should move east of the region through the day. While the GFS/GEM maintain a ridge over the area this weekend through early next week, the ECMWF has shown a continued cut off low over the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, allowing for a high degree of uncertainty with the general forecast trend. Highs Saturday generally in the upper 50s to low 60s are expected to moderate to the mid 70s by Tuesday, although a solution with a cut off low over the area would temper this moderation a bit.
While a ridging solution would provide dry weather, diurnal low precip chances would be increased under a cut off low solution.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
Outside of storms immediately ahead of a cold front, conditions are VFR with mid to high level clouds. The main aviation concern for the near term will be storms that will approach KCLE in the next hour or so and then will pass north of KMFD and KCAK and arrive KYNG later this evening. Conditions with storms will fall to non-VFR with wind gusts in the 35 to 50 kt range. Winds ahead of the cold front are southwest with some non-convective gusts in the 25-35 kt range. Winds will shift to the west then northwest with frontal passage and decrease. Cold advection over Lake Erie should allow for some MVFR ceilings to develop and push into the terminals of NE OH and NW PA during the late morning hours on Wednesday. Drier air will enter the region and scatter out the clouds for Wednesday afternoon, as high pressure enters from the north. Winds will shift to the north and then northeast as this high pressure system approaches.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Friday. Non-VFR may linger across the eastern half of the area into Saturday.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory continues through this evening and tonight across the lake, with strong southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon. This front will cross the lake this evening with winds becoming northwest and eventually subsiding by Wednesday morning. Brief high pressure over the lake will keep winds lighter and variable through Wednesday night before a warm front lifts northwest to the lake Thursday. Increased southwest winds of the lake possible during the day Thursday contingent on how far north the front lifts. Low pressure tracks northeast through the Great Lakes with a cold frontal passage Thursday night into Friday, which could bring some brief conditions favorable for a Small Craft Advisory. West winds prevail through Friday before a secondary trough/front pushes south across the lake with northerly winds to start the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ145>149.