Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wickliffe, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Complex of thunderstorms has been moving generally east across lower Michigan this morning. The more vigorous development continues to be to the northeast where the low level theta-e advection is ongoing. However we are getting some mid-level moisture streaming around the ridge southward across Lake Erie.
Have raised pops across the Lake and clipping the northern tier of counties with a low pop as this moves east this morning. Best chances for a stray thunderstorm or two is across far NE Ohio and NW PA where MU CAPE is around 1000 J/kg. The window of time for precipitation is only through about 19Z as the ridge builds in from the west and the atmosphere becomes capped from west to east. Temperatures will climb quickly today as clouds clear with heat index values exceeding 95 degrees in NW Ohio this afternoon.

Previous Discussion...
An axis of convection is firing northeast of a warm front from northern Wisconsin into southwest Michigan. Some elevated instability into northwest Ohio this morning could assist any additional storms that fire along the southern end of that line as they move into the area, but overall, the column is on the dry side and otherwise not supportive of sustaining convection. That said, using low end POPs for northwest Ohio and the western basin of Lake Erie for later this morning. Later today, the frontal boundary will lift northeastward into Lake Huron and across the eastern basin of Lake Erie and ongoing convection will traverse the Great Lakes into southern Ontario also thanks to the 500mb ridge building northward.
Overall, the feeling is that the low/mid level moisture in the column for the far northeastern zones of our CWA of northwest PA is likely not sufficient to support convection for the area, and for now, will not carry POPs this afternoon in this region. This could change if the deeper moisture extends further southwest back into our CWA than current forecast models are indicating.

In the meantime, the aforementioned ridge builds in from the south with increasing heights, marking the trend towards significant heat for the end of the weekend and early next week. Temperatures on the increase today with mid 80s east to lower 90s west and dewpoints pushing the 70F mark. Muggy overnight with lows in the 70s for the most part and then well into the 90s for the bulk of the CWA for Sunday. Dewpoints in the lower 70s will have heat index vales eclipsing 100 in places, and have gone with a Heat Advisory going forward.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A strong upper ridge/high will remain in place over the local area through the short term period, allowing the dome of heat to persist through at least Tuesday. Confidence in a prolonged period of heat/humidity is high, but confidence in the exact magnitude of heat is a bit lower. Latest forecast soundings suggest that there could be some vertical mixing during peak diurnal heating Monday/Tuesday, which could result in slightly lower dew points than currently forecast. On the other hand, 850mb temps will be around 20-22C and mixing may result in warmer surface temps than currently forecast.
As of now, forecast high temps Monday/Tuesday will be in the 90s (possibly near record values; see Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at the bottom of this AFD), although temps may be a few degrees cooler near the lakeshore in Ashtabula/Erie (PA) counties.
Maximum heat indices will generally be in the 95-102 degree range with nearly all locations likely reaching 100 degrees at some point during the Heat Advisory (which is in effect through Tuesday evening). Overnight lows will be in the 70s with locally warmer temps likely in urban areas. These warm overnight lows combined with high humidity values will result in very little overnight relief.
Temps may finally begin to decrease Tuesday night, but still expect overnight temps in the lower 70s.

Dry weather with plenty of sunshine is expected through Monday before diurnal shower/thunderstorm chances beginning to increase as a cold front sags south towards the local area. Overall confidence in coverage is low; PoPs are currently capped at around 40 percent across NW OH Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The weather pattern will begin to shift mid to late week as a cold front sinks south towards the local area and likely stalls somewhere to the north of Lake Erie Wednesday through at least Thursday/early Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase during the long term period with precipitation chances peaking during maximum diurnal instability during the afternoon/early evening. Can't rule out stronger thunderstorms/localized flooding during this time, but still far too early to clearly determine any potential hazards.

Warm temperatures and humidity will continue despite the pattern change with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and maximum heat indices in the 90s anticipated Wednesday/Thursday. A few spots may approach Heat Advisory criteria these days, but confidence is quite low given the arrival of rain chances/increased cloud cover. Temps may trend a bit cooler into the 80s by Friday. Expect overnight lows in the lower 70s each night.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
A warm front will push through the region, and will expect winds to increase out of the southwest with gusts 15-25kts today. The gusts will subside tonight after daytime heating ends for the day, but sustained southwest winds to 15kts is still likely.
Otherwise, the forecast is VFR with SCT cumulus developing today around FL035.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Wednesday on with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots are expected through this afternoon before winds increase to 15 to 20 knots this evening into early Sunday morning. The lake will probably be choppy starting this afternoon with waves building to around 4 feet in the open waters this evening. Winds will gradually diminish Sunday morning/afternoon with sustained winds to 6 to 12 knots expected Sunday evening through early Tuesday. Winds may become more variable as a cold front sinks south towards Lake Erie for Tuesday and Wednesday, but expect winds speeds to be 10 knots or less. Headlines are not anticipated through early next week.

CLIMATE
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie

06-22 99(1988) 95(1988) 98(1988) 97(1988) 97(1933) 94(1988)
06-23 96(1911) 91(1964) 94(1948) 94(1923) 94(1943) 92(1964)
06-24 95(2005) 93(1933) 96(1952) 95(1923) 93(1952) 92(1952)
06-25 104(1988) 101(1988) 104(1988) 100(1988) 99(1988) 100(1988)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for OHZ003- 006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.