Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wickliffe, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1.) Unusually-cold air temperatures persist through Monday night.
Frost and sub-32F low temperatures are a concern tonight and Monday night. In addition, lake-effect rain, mixing with and then changing to snow, is expected this evening into Monday morning in north-central OH and especially farther east.

2.) An overall warming trend begins this Tuesday and should continue through this upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our region through Monday morning as a primary mid/upper-level trough axis moves from the central Great Lakes to the northeast United States. At the surface, a secondary cold front sweeps SSE'ward through our region this evening and is followed by a ridge building from the northern Great Plains. During Monday afternoon through Monday night, a shortwave ridge embedded in NW'erly flow aloft builds generally from the west. Simultaneously, the surface portion of the ridge crests E'ward across our CWA and then continues to affect our region as the surface ridge axis becomes located near the northern and central Appalachians by daybreak Tuesday. This weather pattern evolution at the surface and aloft will maintain a net low-level CAA regime and unusually-cold air temperatures in our area. Overnight lows should reach mainly the lower 20's to lower 30's around daybreak Monday, which have prompted the Freeze Warning. Frost should form around daybreak from roughly western Lucas County to western Knox County due to greater radiational cooling this evening through daybreak courtesy of the following: considerable clearing amidst stabilizing subsidence and easing surface winds, both of which will accompany the building ridge. On Monday, late afternoon highs should reach only the mid 30's to upper 40's as colder air continues to overspread our region generally from the northwest.
Given the expected evolution of the ridge, overall clearing of our sky and easing of our regional surface winds Monday evening through daybreak Tuesday should contribute to significant radiational cooling and lows reaching the 20's to mid 30's in our region. Hence, a Freeze Watch has been issued for most of our CWA

Scattered rain showers are expected the rest of this afternoon through evening in response to moist isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of a shortwave trough axis, low-level convergence and sufficiently-moist ascent along the secondary cold front, and eventual development of lake-effect precip (LEP) over and generally southeast of Lake Erie, behind the cold front. Self- destructive sunshine will contribute to the development of these showers through this early evening. Continued CAA at the surface and aloft and the wet-bulb effect should allow rain to mix with or change to wet snow, especially this evening and from north-central OH to NW PA. Any snow accumulations by midnight tonight should be one inch or less and confined to the higher terrain of NW PA and the higher terrain of Geauga County and vicinity in NE OH. Additional LEP, mainly in the form of snow, is expected over and generally southeast of central and eastern Lake Erie Monday morning as a NW'erly mean low-level flow of unusually-cold/sufficiently-moist air persists over/downwind of the ~10C lake. The most-persistent snow, steady to heavy at times, should be focused across Ashtabula County, western Erie and Crawford Counties, PA, and vicinity due to an upstream moisture connection to Lake Huron and resulting corridor of greater lake-induced CAPE over Lake Erie. Additional snow accumulations should be one inch or less from north-central OH to NW PA due, in part to the precip expected to be isolated to scattered and thus periodic in nature. Dry weather is expected outside the LEP. The LEP should weaken considerably later Monday morning, end by the early afternoon, and then be followed by dry weather region-wide through daybreak Tuesday as the aforementioned ridge is accompanied by a lowering and stabilizing subsidence inversion.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
On Tuesday, NW'erly flow aloft persists as the ridge at the surface and aloft exits generally E'ward and allows a warm front to sweep N'ward through our region. A fairly-dry low-level atmospheric column should permit a dry warm front passage. Net low-level WAA ahead of and behind the warm front should contribute to late afternoon highs reaching the upper 50's to lower 60's in NW PA and the 60's to lower 70's in northern OH.
During Tuesday night, a shortwave trough axis embedded in NW'erly flow aloft should approach our region and the accompanying, weak surface cold front should begin to sweep SE'ward through roughly the northern-half of our CWA Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected as weak and mainly elevated CAPE is released by the following: frontal forcing for ascent amidst sufficient moisture and moist isentropic ascent ahead of the shortwave trough axis. Lows should reach the mid 40's to mid 50's around daybreak Wednesday. On Wednesday, the aforementioned shortwave trough axis should sweep SE'ward across our CWA, the surface cold front should sweep SE'ward through the rest of our CWA by midday, and then a surface ridge should begin to build into our region from the northern Great Lakes. Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible for the same aforementioned reasons, especially roughly along and south of U.S. Route 30. Farther north, odds favor fair weather due, in part to stabilizing subsidence that will accompany the surface ridge. Late afternoon highs should reach the 60's to mid 70's.
The coolest highs are expected within a few miles of Lake Erie due to lake breeze development during the late morning through early evening.

Abnormal warmth, overall, should persist in our region Wednesday night through this upcoming weekend as we become located within a net WAA regime along the western flank of the surface ridge and eventually the ridge farther aloft. For context, normal lows are near 40F and normal highs are near 60F to 65F for late April in our CWA Current odds favor fair weather Wednesday night through Thursday night. During Friday through Sunday, periodic showers and thunderstorms are possible due, in part to the passage of shortwave trough axes embedded in SW'erly to W'erly flow aloft.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/
As a cold front moves east this evening, rain showers will remain scattered and light in nature, resulting in very limited impacts to terminals. As the cold front departs east, there will be a transition into a northwest flow, resulting in the potential for some lake enhanced showers to develop downstream of Lake Erie. Many of these showers should remain predominately as rain, although a few flakes mixing in cannot be ruled out, especially across the higher terrain in NE OH and NW PA.
Terminals most likely to be impacted by these showers will be KCLE to KCAK and east. Ceilings are expected to primarily remain VFR through the period, although isolated lowering in lake clouds may reach MVFR heights at KYNG and KERI. By mid-Monday morning, snow/rain showers should dissipate, leaving all terminals VFR for the remainder of the period.

West-northwest winds of 10-15 knots continue to gust this evening with highest gusts of 20-30 knots across western terminals and the immediate lakeshore. These winds should steadily decrease over the next couple hours with overnight winds from the north-northwest at 5-10 knots. These will persist through much of the period before becoming light and variable near 00Z Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Tuesday night and Wednesday in rain showers.

MARINE
Winds on Lake Erie will peak late this afternoon and evening as a trough crosses the lake. WNW winds of 15-25 knots will turn NNW and gradually decrease to 5-15 knots tonight. Will keep Small Craft headlines going this evening, gradually expiring after 00Z as winds decrease. Keeping the Small Craft Advisory from Reno Beach to Willowick until 03Z still looks reasonable since it will take the longest for winds to diminish in the western and central basins.

Light winds are then expected on Lake Erie Monday as high pressure shifts across the lake before turning S to SW at 10-15 knots late Monday night and Tuesday ahead of another cold front.
Winds will turn N behind this front late Tuesday night, becoming light and variable Wednesday and Thursday. Daily lake breeze development is likely Wednesday and Thursday afternoons which will turn winds more N to NE in the nearshore waters until a period of stronger S winds Friday possibly offsets the lake breeze.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Monday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for OHZ009>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Monday for PAZ001>003.
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142- 147>149.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ143>146.