Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Euclid, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Spotty showers expected near the lakeshore this morning as another weak cold front comes through the area. Well-advertised, developing low pressure will track eastward today and tonight across the Mississippi Valley, and then along the southern CWA border Sunday.
This low pressure system passing just to the south and then east of the region will be the significant airmass changing system with the stout cold air advection in its wake from an upper level low dropping into the western Great Lakes. The first round of significant precipitation comes after 03Z Sunday with the mid/upper level trough moving into the western CWA and the associated PVA.
This will be in the form of rain primarily as the temperature drop will be in the process of occurring, until around 10-12Z when wet snow begins to mix in with the rain for the Toledo area prior to sunrise. This could be short lived and will not be the permanent change over to frozen precipitation until late Sunday with daylight hours and a brief increase in temperatures in northwest Ohio back into the upper 30s. A multitude of trough axes in the 700mb flow will keep the chances for off and on precipitation going through the day. Rain changes to snow west to east after 18Z, and will still be in transition by 00Z Monday and the break with the short term forecast period.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
With the departure of the surface low to the east, focus of the precipitation turns to the surface/low level flows off the lakes and the assistance of the main upper level low working its way through the southern Great Lakes. There is a pronounced amount of CAPE that will become established because of the relatively warm lake water temperatures in the mid 50s and 850mb temperatures around -11C, which is delivering some hype for this system. With some aid from the forcing aloft, snow, potentially moderate at times, is possible across much of northern Ohio downwind of Lake Erie, from a northerly fetch to start Sunday night into early Monday, veering to northwesterly later Monday, and westerly Monday night. What will keep the forecast snowfall amounts in check will be a combination of not only those aforementioned changing low level flow directions, but also patchy dry air in the low levels, making this an imperfect setup. Most locations are going to see snow at some point, but with the transient nature of the bulk of the parameters that will be responsible for the precipitation, will keep the snowfall amounts on the manageable side. During the daytime hours Monday, the snow line will be pushed inland a bit due to warmer lake water temperatures, and the highest amounts will ultimately end up in the higher elevations of the NW PA counties. High pressure will build in from the south heading into Tuesday, effectively shutting off the lake effect by 00Z Wednesday. Coldest air of the season no doubt, and Monday and Tuesday temperatures will largely be in the 30s with 20s Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Broad scale troughing aloft will linger over the northeast CONUS, and while a modest warm up is expected in a rebound from the cold start to the week, temperatures will be work back into the upper 40s. Saturated low level flow off the lake could keep off and on precipitation possible over the eastern zones of the CWA for the middle to the end of the week. Milder conditions expected beyond Friday into the weekend as upper ridging builds over the midwest.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
Currently this morning there is some patchy fog across areas from I- 71 eastward along and south of US Route 30. A few terminals have reported non-VFR visibilities and down to LIFR at times. Most non- VFR visibilities have not been prolonged and have bounced back up to VFR after a couple of hours. The patchy fog should dissipate by sunrise this morning and visibilities should be VFR by 14Z. There are some low level clouds moving across the lakeshore from west to east dropping ceilings to MVFR. This will mainly impact KCLE and KERI this morning until drier air moves in this afternoon lifting ceilings to low VFR. Additionally, there is the potential for showers along the lakeshore today, but confidence is low in this as model agreement is lacking and with dry air moving in.

Towards the end of the TAF period, a low pressure system will be moving into the region from the west. This will be bring widespread showers across the region starting at 02Z at KTOL and by 06Z at KYNG. Showers will bring visibilites and ceilings down to MVFR conditions. At KTOL, there will be potential for a rain/snow mix at the end of the TAF period as temperatures will fall close to freezing.

Winds will be fairly light throughout the TAF period being less than 10 knots. Wind direction will be predominantly out of the north throughout the day Saturday and start to shift to be more east to northeasterly as the low pressure system approaches by the end of the TAF period. There will be an increase as well in the wind, though on KTOL will see an increase during this period.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected Sunday through early next week with rain and snow showers with a low pressure system moving through. Possible prolonged non-VFR conditions in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania with lake effect showers.

MARINE
The Small Craft Advisory will be allowed expire this morning as winds and waves have continued to subside across the near shore. Winds today will be generally out of the north at 5-10 knots then shifting to be more east-to-northeasterly by late Saturday night. A low pressure system will approach from the west Sunday morning and winds will increase to 25-30 knots and waves building to 6 to 9 feet. The low will track to the south of the region through the day on Sunday and winds will shift around to be out of the north. Depending on the track and intensity of the low, winds may be stronger.

As the low pushes off to the northeast winds will diminish to 15-25 knots Sunday night into Monday. A trough will move into the region midweek and with a ridge building to the south, winds will increase to near gale across the lake.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ147>149.