NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
1:30 PM Update: Lake effect activity has become more cellular due to daytime heating on land, with activity west of a Lake Huron connected band into Ashtabula Co and northwestern PA struggling to hang on as a drier airmass gradually works in from the west. Could still see intermittent activity as far west as the Cleveland area with a few sprinkles as far west as Erie County OH through the afternoon. Cloud tops are cooling with activity about to push onshore in extreme northeast OH and northwest PA, and can't rule out a bit of lightning/thunder through the afternoon here.

Previous Discussion...
A taste of Fall will arrive across the region for the near term period, featuring below-average temperatures and lake-effect rain showers.

This morning, water vapor imagery depicts a closed upper-level low slowly rotating southeast across the Upper Great Lakes.
There remains quite a bit of dry air in the wake of the cold front that moved through the area earlier this evening which has kept rain showers isolated thus far. However, anticipate this will change as a lobe of more favorable mid-level moisture arrives across NE OH and NW PA by later this morning and afternoon. This area of elevated moisture is already showing up on the Nighttime Microphysics satellite product, in addition to enhanced radar returns downwind of Lake Huron. A cooler airmass will also coincide with this area of moisture, characterized by 850 mb temperatures falling to around 3C this afternoon. Thus, the most persistent lake-effect rains will likely occur across far NE OH and NW PA today while coverage should be more isolated elsewhere. Lightning is also possible within the most intense lake-effect rain bands. Highs today will generally range from the low to mid-60s, feeling blustery at times with persistent northwest winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph.

The coolest part of the air mass will arrive Saturday night, with 850 mb temperatures falling to around 1C. However, the arrival of dry air and a building ridge to the west should signal an end to any lake-effect precipitation. The dry air will result in mostly clear skies across much of the area Saturday night and could lead to some patchy frost along and south of the US-30 corridor near Mansfield.

Quiet weather is expected on Sunday with slightly warmer temperatures as a large ridge begins to build across the Central CONUS. Highs will range from the mid to upper 60s across NE OH and NW PA, increasing to the upper 60s to lower 70s across NW OH.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The short term period will bring quiet weather and a warming trend.
The deep upper level trough over the Great Lakes region and much of the eastern CONUS this weekend will lift out by Monday. An expansive surface high pressure system will be over much of the Central CONUS to the Northeast Region, including the Ohio Valley. This high pressure system will stay in control through the mid week time frame.
A more zonal flow will develop in the mid and upper levels with a split flow of the jet stream staying along the far southern U.S. and across southern Canada. We will have one more night of temperatures in the mid to upper 40s Sunday night. High temps on Monday will be climbing back upwards in the lower 70s to around 80 degrees.
Temperatures will continue to rise to the upper 70s near NWPA to the mid 80s over NWOH. Mostly clear skies and fair weather conditions are expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The extended forecast will continue to be very quiet and warm with above average temperatures. An upper level ridge of high pressure will develop over the Great Lakes region for the middle and end of next week and act as a blocking weather pattern. High temperatures will be very warm in the 80s for most locations with a few spots reaching 90 degrees in NWOH during the long term period. Skies will generally be mostly clear and there are no rain chances in the forecast for next week.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/
A mixed bag of VFR and MVFR ceilings continues as strato-cumulus continue to rotate through the area amid chilly cyclonic flow.
Ceilings have been gradually coming up on the whole, which should continue as high pressure and a drier airmass continue to wedge in from the west into tonight. Lake effect shows continue, mainly east of CLE but impacting ERI and YNG at times. Brief ceiling and visibility drops to MVFR will continue with these showers through this afternoon, with a bit of thunder and brief IFR visibility possible in Northwest PA. Confidence wasn't high enough to include in the ERI TAF, though may need to AMD if that changes. There may be enough of an uptick in the lake effect later this afternoon as a weak trough axis drops across the lake, so did include a few hours of VCSH at CLE as well. Lake effect will shift east and diminish tonight.

Generally northwest winds at 8 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots continue this afternoon. Winds shift more westerly and subside to 3 to 7 knots tonight, outside of ERI where it will remain a bit windier. Winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots out of the west-southwest with gusts to 25 knots Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through Thursday.

MARINE
Conditions on the Lake Erie will be a little rough today lingering into Sunday, especially for the central and eastern basin. Northerly to northwesterly winds will be 15 to 25 kt and waves will be 4 ft or greater today. We will keep the Small Craft Advisories for the central and eastern basin today but may drop some headlines on the western basin near the Lake Erie Islands. There will be the chance for waterspouts today through this evening. Northwest winds will decrease to 10 to 15 knots tonight and waves be 2 to 4 feet. We will probably discontinue to SCA during the overnight but westerly winds will pick back up on Sunday 10 to 20 knots. We may have to reissue the SCA for Sunday over the eastern basin. High pressure will be over the region for most of next week with a light southwest flow up to 10 knots for Monday through Wednesday. Waves next week will generally be 2 feet or less next week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ009- 010.
Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for OHZ011-012- 089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ144- 145.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ146>149.