Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oak Harbor, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
630 PM Update...
Made adjustments to PoPs in southern zones since the vast majority of the area will remain dry tonight. Otherwise, no changes needed with this update.

Previous Discussion...
This afternoon, a very slow boundary continues to sag south towards southern Ohio with high pressure building in behind it.
This has allowed for a dry day across the CWA, although plenty of cloud cover persist across the area south of the lakeshore.
These clouds will likely persist given the moisture and weak forcing associated with the boundary through much of the period.
There is an isolated chance of a few showers and rumbles of thunder to impact the extreme far portion of the CWA, but overall forcing and confidence in showers occurring is much further south. Anything that does develop may briefly produce heavy rainfall. There is no severe weather expected this afternoon. Tonight, low level moisture lingers as conditions begin to stabilize. This could result in patchy fog/low stratus across the area resulting in reduced visibilities through day break Monday. Confidence is not very high given the likely cloud cover through the overnight hours, so will have to monitor ceiling trends in the coming hours.

On Monday, the area will remain primarily dry through the early afternoon before the aforementioned boundary begins to lift north as a warm front. Frontogenetic forcing coupled with increased diurnal instability of 1000-1500 J/kg and upper level energy associated with a shortwave trough should produce a wider coverage of showers and thunderstorms across much of the area, with NWOH being the exception and possibly remaining dry through the period. The current model timing of these showers suggests showers begin to develop near the cusp of transitioning towards a non-diurnally favorable time, so at this point not expecting anything severe. The biggest hazard with any storms that do develop will be gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

High temperatures on MOnday will be a bit warmer, climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows both nights falling into the 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough originating over the Mid-Missippi Valley will lift northeast across the area on Tuesday. An axis of deeper moisture will be in place from Central Ohio towards NW Pennsylvania where numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms will be focused.
Freezing levels will be high with skinny cape profiles supporting heavy rain with any thunderstorms that develop. PW values will be near 2 inches and flooding could result if training of thunderstorms occur with a northeasterly storm motion. Most of our eastern CWA is in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall although the deeper moisture does start to push east late in the day. Winds shift around to the south on Tuesday allowing temperatures to trend warmer. Skies are likely to scatter out in NW Ohio during the afternoon with temperatures reaching the upper 80s. Farther east where clouds and showers persist, temperatures will peak in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

After brief shortwave ridging aloft on Tuesday night, active weather will return mid-week as low pressure tracks northeast through the Central Great Lakes Wednesday-Wednesday night. The next in a series of shortwaves will lift across lower Michigan with low pressure tracking from north of Chicago, across lower Michigan, into southern Ontario. Much of the area can expect a capping inversion overhead on Wednesday afternoon in the warm sector until convection develops along some type of a pre-frontal trough during the late afternoon. There has been some spread among long range models with the GFS favoring a deeper and more consolidated upper level trough that holds onto a stronger surface low over Lake Michigan into Wednesday night while the Canadian and ECMWF have been more consistent with a progressive solution that has the low pass north of Lake Erie on Wednesday night. Did slow down the timing slightly on Wednesday with thunderstorms moving into NW Ohio later afternoon/evening and expanding north overnight. We will need to keep an eye on timing over the coming days. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints approaching 70 degrees. If storms move into the area near or just after peak heating, will need to be concerned with the potential for severe weather.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Given the uncertainty in timing mentioned above will continue with a chance of thunderstorms across the area on Thursday. The highest pops will be in the east and may be able to trend these down if the faster solution pans out. Temperatures on Thursday will drop back closer to 80 degrees behind the front. High pressure looks to build into the Ohio Valley on Friday with lower humidity values and a dry forecast. Models come into better agreement towards the end of the week with a high amplitude ridge building into the Great Lakes region. Above normal temperatures will expand eastward Saturday into Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
Generally expect VFR through this evening before some lower stratus and perhaps patchy fog develop at KMFD/KCAK/KYNG late tonight into early Monday morning. Guidance generally favors MVFR conditions at worst, but KMFD will likely briefly drop to IFR in lower ceilings for a period early Monday morning.
Ceilings will gradually rise throughout Monday morning with widespread VFR anticipated by no later than 18Z Monday afternoon. A warm front will begin to lift towards the region as low pressure tracks across the Ohio Valley late Monday afternoon into Monday evening and a few showers may move within the vicinity of KMFD/KCAK/KYNG after 21Z. Confidence in shower coverage is low so have introduced a PROB30 group for the time being.

Winds will become light and variable across the area tonight, although winds may remain east/northeasterly at around 5 knots across portions of NW OH through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Thursday, best chance Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday into Thursday.

MARINE
The combination of weak low pressure over the Ohio River Valley and a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will maintain northeast winds this evening. Northeast winds of 10-17 knots and waves of 1-3 feet expected. Low pressure to the south will tend to weaken overnight with east to northeast winds of 5-15 knots continuing through Monday.

A warm front will lift north across Lake Erie on Tuesday with winds veering around to the south. Southwesterly winds will be on the increase Wednesday into Wednesday night as low pressure tracks through the Central Great Lakes and passes north of Lake Erie.
Although some uncertainty remains with timing, this system will pull a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds decrease quickly behind the front so not expecting to need a Small Craft Advisory but will be something to monitor towards mid-week. High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley behind this system on Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.