Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Northwood, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Light snow is likely tonight, though road impacts will be limited.

2) Wet and warm conditions are expected Tuesday through next weekend.

DISCUSSION
1) A weak shortwave moving through, along with forcing from the right-entrance region of an upper-level jet, will be the focus for precipitation development tonight. Cold air advection with northerly flow should keep precipitation type mostly snow, though a wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain could be briefly possibly for our far southern counties in central Ohio (Knox-Holmes area). The 00Z NAM is the most aggressive with mixed precipitation there, as it produces a more developed low- level low and subsequent warm nose aloft. With that said, antecedent road/ground temperatures will probably be warm enough to limit impacts. Elsewhere, snow amounts are unlikely to amount to much, with less than an inch.

2) An upper-level ridge moves from the southwest CONUS towards the eastern CONUS by Tuesday, where it will become established through the rest of the week and into next weekend. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough follows, moving lee of the Rockies by Tuesday. In response, return flow of gulf air will bring warm, moist conditions northward, setting up a strong theta-e gradient with a warm front over us and favorable conditions for a period of moderate to possibly heavy rain (at times).

Rain showers may come as early as late Monday night. There is a chance that precipitation initially falls as freezing rain before temperatures warm up into the 40s. The greatest QPF signal right now is for Tuesday and Tuesday night where the NBM has a 50-75 of QPF > 1". The 90th percentile, which can be considered a reasonable worse case scenario, is around 1.75".
Antecedent conditions are fairly dry as river flow is relatively low, and parts of Northwest Ohio (including Lucas, Wood, and parts of Hancock and Ottawa) are actually still under a D3 Extreme Drought. So while this is a notable QPF signal, flooding appears unlikely.

Broad southwest flow will persist through the rest of the week, resulting in continued warming temperatures and several periods of rain showers. It's likely we see multiple days of highs in to 60s from Thursday through Saturday. With repeated rainfall, higher soil moisture could provide more favorable antecedent conditions for flooding by late week, but the details are a little fuzzy at this point. CSU ML shows this potential, with a >5% chance of excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday (consistent with an isolated flooding threat).

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
VFR conditions across terminals will continue through this evening. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will overspread TAF sites tonight as an area of light to moderate snowfall moves eastward across the region. Can't rule out the potential for occasional reductions to IFR due to cigs/vis more moderate areas of snowfall.

Winds will undergo a few shifts through the TAF period.
Southwesterly winds 8-12 knots ahead of a cold front this morning will quickly turn northwesterly behind the front between 12Z and 15Z. Northwesterly to northerly winds persist through this evening before winds shift northeasterly tonight into Sunday morning. Winds will generally remain between 8-12 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in snow Saturday night into early Sunday and again Sunday night into Monday, mainly along and south of US-30. Periods of non-VFR conditions are possible throughout next week as an active pattern becomes established.

MARINE
The central basin is now open with western basin ice coverage continuing to diminish. Whereas the eastern basin remains mostly ice covered, though significant cracks in the coverage exist. A prolonged period of mild temperatures, unsettled weather, and gusty winds will continue to diminish ice coverage, shift around the remaining ice sheet, and cause additional fractures.

Elevated southwesterly winds 15-20 knots will quickly become northerly while decreasing to 10-15 knots behind a cold front this morning. Winds shift northeasterly tonight remaining between 10 and 15 knots. Winds return northerly as high pressure builds overhead Sunday night. As the high builds to the east on Monday, winds turn easterly with offshore flow expected Monday night through Tuesday. No marine headlines as Small Craft Advisories remain suspended at this time. Waves in ice-free areas across the open waters may build to 2-4 feet at times this weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.