Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Northwood, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
The arctic outbreak is at its peak this morning with record low temperatures already set at Mansfield (KMFD) and other sites are getting close. Current temperatures range from 0 to -13 F, with Erie, PA (KERI) being the "warm" spot and Wooster (KBJJ)
being the cold spot. Mostly clear skies and relatively light winds along with 850 mb temps between -20 and -25 C will allow for a continued fall in temperatures through sunrise. Lows should bottom out between -5 and -15 F, so this will be the coldest night in 10 years (February 2015). Wind chill values are solidly in the -15 to -25 F range, and these will become colder through the early morning, so no changes to the Extreme Cold Warning through 15Z.

The strong 1035 mb arctic surface high centered over the Ohio Valley this morning will drift across the Appalachians this afternoon and into the Mid Atlantic tonight while weakening.
This will allow the boundary layer flow to quickly back to the SSW this morning. The lingering lake-effect snow showers and flurries have already shifted north of Erie County, PA, and expect these to dissipate over western NY by mid morning as the SSW flow develops and inversion heights crash below 5000 feet.
This will lead to a dry day areawide, with the developing warm air advection starting a warming trend. Expect highs to reach the low to mid teens today, with a few single digit highs lingering in NW PA.

The active NW mid/upper flow pattern will continue tonight and Thursday as another shortwave trough drops through the western Great Lakes tonight and through our region Thursday. This is essentially a weak Clipper system, with the associated surface low tracking from Lake Superior this evening to north of Lake Ontario by Thursday night. This will drag a cold front across the region Thursday afternoon and evening, bring another surge of arctic air as the longwave eastern CONUS trough reloads. This surge will not be nearly as cold, but it will still reinforce the cold pattern and bring some light synoptic and lake-effect snowfall.

Regarding the snowfall, mid-level warm air advection and isentropic ascent will bring some light snow tonight, especially over the northern tier counties. Limited moisture will keep this very light, so only expect a coating to couple tenths of an inch. After a lull, stronger forcing as the cold front crosses Thursday afternoon and evening due to the passage of the mid- level trough axis will bring light snow back to the region from west to east. This could put down a few tenths to up to 1 inch, however, as 850 mb temps fall to -15 C Thursday evening with cold advection and WNW flow across Lake Erie, there will be lake enhancement over the primary snowbelt of NE Ohio and NW PA. HRRR CAMS are suggesting a burst of heavier snow coming off the lake with the front, so locally higher amounts are looking possible in the snowbelt. Cannot rule out up to 4 inches in the favored upslope areas, especially in Erie and northern Crawford Counties in NW PA.

Lows tonight will be milder, with single digits to low teens, with highs Thursday rising into the low/mid 20s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
An upper level trough continues to move across the CONUS with the axis dipping down to the Gulf Coast states as a surface low pressure system will traverse the Great Lakes through the period. Some lake effect snow showers will be ongoing across NE OH and NW PA on Thursday night before pushing out over Lake Erie Friday night as the 925 ridge to the south moves east of the Great Lakes. All-in-all should result in less than a few inches of snow across the aforementioned areas, with the higher elevations receiving the higher end amounts. Moisture will be quick to exit as a drier air mass moves with more west-southwesterly flow Friday night into Saturday morning. High pressure will build to the south on Saturday and will keep the region dry for the day.

Temperatures will rebound on Saturday with highs in the low 30s and upper 20s for the region. Overnight lows will still be quite chilly down in the single digits.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The drier air mass will be short lived as a weak low pressure and cold front will sweep across the region early Sunday. This is supported by a broad upper level trough moving across the Hudson Bay in Canada. Another trough is slowly moving across southwest CONUS and may interact with the northern trough and provide some support for the early week system. Temperatures will stick around freezing for highs through the early week, but lows will only dip down into the low 20s/upper teens.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/
VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with mainly VFR expected into Thursday morning. A brief period of MVFR or IFR vsbys with snow is possible late tonight into early Thursday morning and have this reflected in tempo/prob30 groups. More widespread snow may develop by Thursday afternoon from northwest to southeast across the region. Non-VFR additions from snow may be needed for other TAF sites in the next update.

Winds are increasing out of the south early this afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds will remain out of the south overnight, gradually shifting more towards the southwest by the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in snow showers and low ceilings Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Additional Non-VFR possible in snow showers Saturday night into Sunday.

MARINE
The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning has expired for the eastern two- thirds of the lake as the higher waves and winds have subsided enough in the open waters. The Ice Advisory still remains in effect due to the cold air mass and lighter winds across the lake overnight. Temperatures will approach freezing across the advisory area and may support expansion of the ice coverage in the area.
Winds will be southerly at 15-25 knots through Thursday night before shifting to the west at 10-20 knots after a trough passes through the region late Thursday. Winds will build again to 15-25 knots out of the southwest late Saturday ahead of another trough.

CLIMATE
Arctic air persists through today. The coldest temperatures are expected this morning with forecast temperatures approaching record lows for 1/22. Below are the current record low temperatures for 1/21-22.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 01-21 -20(1984) -19(1985) -17(1985) -24(1985) -20(1985) -16(1985)
01-22 -12(1936) -10(1936) -10(1936) -13(1936) -9(2022) -7(1970)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.