Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 7:17 PM   Moonset 5:16 AM

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LEZ147 Expires:202404230815;;213556 Fzus51 Kcle 230126 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 926 pm edt Mon apr 22 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-230815- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 926 pm edt Mon apr 22 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy late this evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 54 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 48 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 230554 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 154 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
A ridge extending from the Mid Mississippi Valley to the eastern Great Lakes moves to the southeastern United States on Tuesday.
Low pressure tracks from near the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday to southern Quebec on Wednesday and allows the trailing cold front to sweep eastward through our region Tuesday night. Behind the front, a ridge builds from the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A surface ridge exits slowly E'ward and SE'ward from our CWA through tonight as a shortwave ridge aloft builds from the western Great Lakes and eventually crests E'ward over our region. Simultaneously, a potent shortwave trough moves from the north-central U.S./south-central Canada border area to the Upper Midwest and allows the attendant surface low to deepen slightly as it tracks from southern mb toward Lake Superior. As this surface low interacts with the slow-moving surface ridge, the MSLP gradient and low- level WAA regime strengthen over our CWA Overnight lows tonight are expected to reach the upper 30's to mid 40's in NW PA and the 40's to 50F in northern OH during the predawn hours of Tuesday morning before readings moderate slightly by daybreak in response to increasing low-level WAA. Fair weather is expected to persist as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge.

The potent shortwave trough approaches from the Upper Midwest on Tuesday before moving E'ward through our region Tuesday night.
At the surface, the attendant trough overspreads our region from the north and west, and the cold front is still forecast to sweep generally E'ward through our CWA Tuesday night. Behind the disturbance and front, a ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the north-central United States and vicinity. A few peeks on sunshine and low-level WAA ahead of the cold front should allow Tuesday afternoon's highs to reach the 50's to lower 60's in northern OH and the lower to mid 60's in NW PA. Low-level CAA behind the front should contribute to overnight lows reaching the lower to mid 40's in northern OH and the upper 30's to lower 40's in NW PA around daybreak Wednesday.

Scattered and periodic rain showers are expected late Tuesday morning through Tuesday night due to moist isentropic ascent aloft, ahead of the front, and low-level convergence and associated moist ascent along the front. The best potential for widespread rain should translate generally E'ward through our CWA Tuesday afternoon through the wee hours of Wednesday morning. Thereafter, fair weather is expected essentially across the western-half of our CWA by daybreak Wednesday as the aforementioned ridge builds behind the shortwave trough and cold front. However, behind the front, lake-enhanced rain showers are expected generally east and then southeast of Lake Erie, in/near the snowbelt, amidst weak lake-induced instability and the following over/downwind of the lake: A sufficiently-cold/moist low/mid-level atmospheric column and the seeder-feeder process.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A cold front is expected to be moving across the region Wednesday morning with any showers across NE OH into NW PA ending by mid afternoon. High pressure then controls the region Wedneday night through Thursday night. Clouds and winds should decrease enough Wednesday night to allow for the formation of frost across most of the CWA Lows may dip below freezing by Thursday morning so a freeze warning is a possibility. It will remain cold Thursday night as well with frost possible from the Central Highlands to NW PA.

The coolest day of the short term will be Wednesday with clouds gradually decreasing through the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 40's to mid 50's. Warmer Thursday with plenty of sunshine and highs reaching into the 50's.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure moves east of the region by Friday with a warm front approaching the region from the southwest. Lift near/ahead of this boundary will bring increased rain chances starting as early as late Friday afternoon across NW OH. The greatest chances occur Friday night with a chance of thunder also possible. The entire region should be in the warm sector ahead of low pressure over the Plains on Saturday into Sunday. The uncertatiny for now will be the coverage of showers and thunderstorms each day. Models are indicating the upper level ridge increasing slightly into Sunday which would at least decrease the coverage of anything that can develop in the warm sector. The better chances of thunderstorms may end up holding off until Monday when the cold front moves west to east across the region.

The entire region should see a return to warm temperatures through the long term with highs in the 70's to near 80 and lows in the 50's to mid 60's.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
Conditions will generally be VFR through 18Z as clouds gradually lower. Southwest winds will increase towards 12Z with gusts to 20-25 knots developing and will continue to increase through about 16Z as mixing heights increase, tapping into a 40 knot low level jet overhead. Gusts of 25-30 knots will be common until rain begins and helps to stabilize the boundary layer. Rain will spread west to east across the area beginning in Toledo around 17Z, CLE around 21Z, and CAK around 23Z. Ceilings will lower as rain increases with most terminals on the fringe of MVFR or VFR.
Have included a period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities where rain persists longer and seems more favorable but lacking some confidence in visibilities as this will tend to be a light rain.
Thunderstorms are not expected. The more persistent rain will end from west to east between 00-06Z but showers may linger at eastern terminals into Wednesday morning. A cold front will move south into the area between 06-12Z with a wind shift to the northwest. This will also bring lower ceilings with most sites down to IFR by 12Z Wed.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely through Wednesday with scattered showers lingering across the snowbelt region. Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday.

MARINE
High pressure is expected to move east of the region tonight as low pressure moves eastward across Ontario, reaching Quebec by Tuesday night. A cold front is pulled eastward across the lake Wednesday morning. Expect to see southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front increase on Tuesday with speeds around 20 knots. Did not issue a small craft advisory at this time. Will allow later shifts to take a look at newer data and issue a short period small craft from sunrise through early afternoon across the western third of the lake. We will also need to monitor for a small craft advisory as northwest winds increase in the wake of the cold front Wedneday morning into the afternoon. The expectation is that the waves build to 4+ feet on Wednesday. Generally tranquil marine conditions are expected to return for Thursday and Friday as high pressure slides through.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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