Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeline, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 4:57PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 8:05 PM EST (01:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:07PMMoonset 5:50AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:201912102115;;143268 Fzus51 Kcle 101456 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 956 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez146>149-102115- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 956 Am Est Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late Wednesday night...
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A slight chance of rain and snow showers late this morning, then a chance of snow and rain showers early this afternoon. A chance of snow showers late. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 5 to 15 knots overnight. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 39 degrees, off cleveland 41 degrees, and off erie 40 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeline, OH
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location: 41.65, -81.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 102349 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 649 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will briefly build northeast through the Ohio valley across the area tonight. A cold front will push southeast through the Great Lakes into the area on Wednesday. High pressure will quickly return to the area, building east across the region Wednesday night, becoming centered over the east coast Thursday and Thursday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Major changes with this update. Lake effect snow band developed west to east along the Lake Erie shoreline from Lake county east through Ashtabula and Erie Counties this evening. Some locations are reporting up to 2 to 4 inches at this time. Latest short term models and upper level profile data suggest the band will persist through the night with the bulk of it occurring before 06Z in the morning. Issued a winter weather advisory for Lake, Ashtabula (mainly near the I-90 corridor), and Erie county in Pennsylvania until 7 AM tomorrow morning. The band should shift north over the lake tomorrow morning ending the major threat for snow across the area.

Previous Discussion .

A weakening surface trough over Lake Erie will attempt to push southward into northern OH and northwest PA late this afternoon into this evening, while pressure rises continue northeastward through the Ohio Valley into the southern Great Lakes. A modest band of snow has formed ahead of this trough over the lake, and is expected to push onshore over the next several hours, perhaps dropping a quick 1-3 inches of snow. Confidence is low on the exact evolution of this snow and lake effect/lake enhancement through tonight across the snow belt. Hi-res guidance continues to depict the surface trough pushing southeast across the snow belt and weakening, with secondary shoreline convergence setting up northeast of Cleveland, which seems to be playing out with latest radar trends. The models depict one or two lake bands becoming dominant and pushing onshore across the snow belt, with several models favoring a band into northern Geauga/Lake and another into Erie PA.

The current evolution on radar is a bit off from the model depictions spatially and timing wise, but generally on the right track. It seems the potential for heaviest snowfall will occur over the next 4-5 hours, with lingering synoptic forcing coinciding with good moisture from 900-750mb. However, dendritic growth will be minimal with the best lift centered much lower in the cloud layer, and some fairly dry air in the lowest 3kft. Instability parameters are marginal as well, with lake induced inversion heights peaking around 8-8.5 kft. After 00Z, drier 925mb air will work south across the lake, which could limit snowfall as well. Overall, kept the forecast fairly similar to the previous, with accumulations centered a touch farther north in the 2-4 inch range through tonight. Some higher amounts up to 5 inches by tomorrow morning are possible in the higher terrain of Erie PA. For now, with lower confidence in the evolution of this snow, will not issue any headlines and will monitor closely for the next several hours to see how the bands are organizing.

Snow bands will diminish and push offshore around/after midnight as boundary layer flow begins to back more southwest, with continued drying of the cloud layer. By tomorrow morning, the flow should keep any bands offshore into western NY through at least midday. An upper vort max and accompanying surface front will quickly drop southeast through the Great Lakes Wednesday morning. This now appears to be a relative glancing blow for the local area, but enough of a cold punch to reactivate lake effect into the local area, mainly northwest PA. A brief shot of 850mb moisture will follow this wave passage, with winds veering a bit more northwest Wednesday night. Dry air looks to quickly work back across the region, so the snow potential should be limited temporally. Currently forecasting an additional 1-3 inches, with the highest amounts in eastern Erie PA. Snow will quickly diminish after midnight as high pressure build across the region.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. The short term begins Thursday with models showing broad high pressure centered over Pennsylvania. To our west, low pressure will be in western Iowa. This low will move northeast to the central Great Lakes and dissipate by Friday morning lifting a warm front northeast through the region as the high moves off the New England coast. Another low will move into the Dakotas. This low will move into the western lakes Friday into Saturday as another disturbance generates a coastal low in New England from the mid Atlantic coast. Moisture will return north into the region Friday with return flow out of the southeastern states with rain chances into mainly eastern Ohio and nwrn PA by Friday afternoon. Moisture deepens from the south Friday night into Saturday. Will have pops increase to likely for the eastern half of the area Friday night and Saturday. Precip may mix with a little snow late on Saturday far west but precip should be mostly rain. Highs Thursday in the mid 30s. Highs Friday and Saturday in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. By Sunday, models show a dominant surface low over northern New England tracking northeast into Canada. To our west, high pressure will be moving east from Minnesota into Wisconsin. Between the two, a cold front will be forced south through the area during the day Sunday. Models begin to differ Sunday night with the ECMWF continuing to bring cold air in the the region while the GFS begins to warm advect. For now will side more with the ECMWF and continue the threat of mainly lake induced precip nern OH and nwrn PA. The ECMWF does eventually show this warm advection increasing into the area Monday into Tuesday ahead of low pressure moving through the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley with moisture increasing across the area out of the southeast. Will keep pops in the chance category for now and go with mostly snow showers monday and a mix Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/. Lake effect snow band developed along the Lake Erie shorline into Lake, Ashtabula and Erie counties. This band should persist through much of the night with the heaviest snow through 1 AM in the morning. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions expected over the rest of the area overnight. Some light snow expected at Akron-Canton and Youngstown tonight as well. Winds will be gusty to 25 knots at times in the squalls near the lake but around 10 to 12 knots elsewhere. Expecting winds to increase again tomorrow at 15 to 25 knots.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible through Thursday with snow showers and low ceilings, especially in the northeast Snow Belt. Non- VFR possible Friday night with rain/snow and Saturday with all rain.

MARINE. Will extend the small craft advisory across the western half of Lake Erie through 4am Thursday. Winds this afternoon have remained near the 20 knot range on the western basin and are not expected to decrease significantly overnight before possibly rising a few knots on Wednesday. Would have needed on for Wednesday anyway so will just leave headline up. Also, for now, will continue with the gale watch as is and allow later shifts to get another model run in. At this time, current guidance touches gale force for a few hours from about noon through 22Z or so. For Wednesday night, winds will begin to diminish as high pressure begins to build in from the west. The high will cross the lake Wednesday evening causing winds to drop to under 10 knots by morning. The high will move to our east Thursday as low pressure approaches the western lakes driving southerly flow at 10 to 15 knots. Southerly flow will increase to 10 to 20 knots Thursday night into Friday as the pressure gradient tightens slightly. Winds will remain fairly light through Saturday before increasing Saturday night into Sunday from the west to 15 to 25 knots as deep low pressure moves through New England and high pressure moves into the western lakes.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ012- 014-089. PA . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ001- 002. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ142>149. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for LEZ169.

SYNOPSIS . Greenawalt NEAR TERM . Greenawalt/Lombardy SHORT TERM . TK LONG TERM . TK AVIATION . Lombardy MARINE . TK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 12 mi47 min WSW 15 G 22 29°F 42°F1022.3 hPa19°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 12 mi47 min WSW 27 G 32 28°F 40°F1021.7 hPa27°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 29 mi95 min SW 12 G 20 29°F
LORO1 41 mi35 min WSW 23 G 28 29°F

Wind History for Cleveland, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH5 mi20 minWSW 14 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy27°F19°F74%1022.7 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH15 mi12 minSW 20 G 2510.00 miOvercast and Breezy29°F17°F61%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS11
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2 days agoS6SE6S9SE8SE8SE10SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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