Tuesday, September21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rock Creek, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:23PM Tuesday September 21, 2021 10:33 AM EDT (14:33 UTC) Moonrise 7:05PMMoonset 6:36AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh-geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 402 Am Edt Tue Sep 21 2021
Today..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely early, then a chance of showers from late morning on. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 73 degrees, off cleveland 73 degrees, and off erie 70 degrees.
LEZ147 Expires:202109211430;;946764 FZUS51 KCLE 210802 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 402 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ147>149-211430-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rock Creek, OH
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location: 41.66, -80.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 211354 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 954 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move east toward the area today and tonight. Low pressure will move northeast along the cold front to Ohio by this evening followed by a much stronger and deepening low pressure Wednesday. The deep low pressure system will move north through eastern Ohio and then northwest to central Lower Michigan by Thursday morning. The low will meander over Michigan through Thursday night and then move quickly north by Friday morning. High pressure will move northeast into the Ohio Valley Friday morning and off the New England Coast by Friday evening.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Update .

The near-term forecast remains valid. Made minor changes to POPs/QPF through this evening given latest trends in weather observations and model guidance. The ongoing light to moderate rain showers over southern and eastern portions of the CWA are associated with a low-level return flow of warm and humid air from the southern Gulf Stream undergoing isentropic ascent. Models remain in good agreement these showers should become more sporadic over our CWA by this early afternoon and then become more persistent late this evening due to variations in strength of the aforementioned ascent. Otherwise, still expect one or more bands of showers and thunderstorms associated with the slow-moving cold front approaching from the west to overspread far-western portions of our CWA this evening. Periods of torrential rainfall remain the biggest concern given unusually-high PWATs and weak MUCAPE supporting updrafts with high precip efficiency.

Previous Discussion .

An upper level high pressure center off the coast of Maine will continue to move east of the area during this forecast period. Meanwhile, a digging upper level trough will dive southeast into the Mississippi Valley region by tonight developing a large upper level low pressure system in the base of the trough by Wednesday evening over Indiana. This will result in strong positive vorticity maximum east of the upper level low and further resulting in a rapidly deepening low pressure system over Ohio. This system will create a warm conveyor belt of moisture from the Atlantic Coast in the southeast states north into the forecast area.

The combination of the strong moisture advection north into the region and the influence of the upper level low and rapid cyclogenesis of the surface low will result in a potential for some locally heavy rain over the western half of the forecast area.

Precipitable water values will range between 1.5" and 1.9" across the western half of the area during the latter half of this forecast period. Low level jet maxima will extend north across western Pennsylvania placing the western half of the forecast area in the left front quad by Wednesday morning. The jet maxima is expected to lift quickly northeast of the area Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday morning appears to be the peak enhanced rainfall time period as all of the features come together at that time. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are possible in the west half of the area and 1 to 3 inches elsewhere for storm totals during the event.

A flood watch has been issued for the western quarter of the forecast area for the possibility of very heavy rain. Drought index indicates area is running about normal with no excessive dry conditions.

A couple of concerns regarding heavy rain potential is where axis of heavy rain will develop, longevity of the heavy rain, whether band of heavy rain remains stationary or not, and possibility for strong convection well south of the local area along the western slopes of the Appalachians robbing the conveyor belt of moisture. If the convection south of the area does indeed cutoff the moisture supply, then QPF amounts will be considerably lower.

So, this remains to be seen how this all plays out in the end. Warm air advection will take place ahead of the low pressure system and then cold air advection will wrap around the west side of the surface low and affect the extreme western third of the local area Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A healthy surface low around 1000 mb will be over Lake Erie near Erie, PA by 00z Thursday (Wednesday evening). The low pressure system will be tracking northward into southern Ontario Wednesday night. Gusty northerly to northwesterly winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph possible will continue across the area Wednesday evening, especially for the lakeshore areas. Most of the thunderstorms and any possible stronger convection should be east of our local area by 00z Thursday. Moderate to pockets of heavier rain showers will continue to wrap around the storm system as it slowly pulls away into Canada Wednesday night. The may be a dry slot area that comes in from the southwest for several hours as it move over portions of northeast Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania late Wednesday night.

By Thursday morning the strong low pressure system will be near Lake Huron or just east of there. The main mid and upper level center of the low pressure and trough will be over the region much of Thursday. We will continue to see mostly cloudy skies, blustery, and off and on scattered showers. Some lake effect or enhancement showers will be closer to the lakeshore areas of northeast Ohio into northwest PA for much of the day Thursday. Temperatures will be cool with lower 60s for afternoon highs. Some areas may not get out of the upper 50s where rain showers persist longer.

The low pressure system finally pulls away from southern Ontario by Friday morning and high pressure briefly builds in across the Upper Ohio Valley on Friday. Friday will actually be a very nice day and close to our seasonable averages for this time of year. Sunshine with a few fair weather clouds will be around with high temperatures around the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Another stout upper level trough will dig through the Great Lakes region on Saturday and push a cold front through the area Saturday afternoon. This upper level trough will be more progressive moving through the region. We will see an increase in cloud cover on Saturday with a quick shot of scattered showers near the frontal passage. The airmass doesn't really change that much with this front. We will see generally temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 both on Saturday and Sunday. Upper level heights rise a little bit on Monday ahead of the next trough. We will see sunshine to start out the week and temperatures back into the 70s by Monday afternoon.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/. A line of showers continues to develop over the western portions of the forecast area at this time. For the most part, shower threat will be minimal over the west and gradually diminishing over the east as the area of convergence lifts northeast of the area. Threat for rain will increase from west to east with the advancing cold front. Eastern half of the area will see showers develop more towards the evening and overnight hours tonight ahead of the cold front. Ceilings will gradually lower from west to east with the shower activity ahead of the cold front down to MVFR and possibly IFR west of a Cleveland and Mansfield line. Winds will be increasing with time from west to east and then diminishing over the west as a wave of low pressure moves north into eastern Ohio by later tonight.

Outlook . MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible in numerous to categorical showers and thunderstorms through Thursday and again Saturday.

MARINE. Winds will be generally southerly today into this evening 15 to 20 knots. Waves along the immediate nearshore will be minimum due to the offshore flow today. The main marine concerns and greater impacts will come with a cold front passage and deepening low pressure system moving across the lake on Wednesday. The cold front will move across the western basin of Lake Erie by 12z Wednesday morning. An area of low pressure will develop and strengthen as it moves up the front across Lake Erie by Wednesday afternoon/evening. Strong and gusty northerly to northwesterly winds will follow the passage of the front and behind the track of the low. Northerly winds will increase 20 to 30 knots with higher gusts possible over the open waters Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. By Wednesday night, the winds will shift from the west 20 to 30 knots. By Thursday morning and much of the day Thursday, winds will be west to southwest 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts. We may get close to Gale Conditions for portions of the open waters of the western and central basin of Lake Erie. There are some uncertainties on how strong the low pressure deepens and track. High end Small Craft Advisory conditions will be likely with rough conditions expected on the lake Wednesday morning through much of Thursday evening. Winds continue from the west-southwest 10 to 15 knots on Friday. Due to the nature of this storm system and colder air moving over the warmer lake water, there will be the potential for a few waterspouts late Wednesday into Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027-028. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Lombardy NEAR TERM . Jaszka/Lombardy SHORT TERM . Griffin LONG TERM . Griffin AVIATION . Lombardy MARINE . Griffin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 14 mi63 min SSE 8.9 G 15
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 20 mi45 min SSE 18 G 25 69°F 73°F1018.3 hPa66°F
45197 37 mi43 min SW 19 G 23 71°F 73°F2 ft1019.1 hPa68°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 39 mi45 min SSW 4.1 G 12 69°F 72°F1019.5 hPa63°F
45164 41 mi93 min 18 G 23 71°F 73°F3 ft

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH14 mi40 minS 1010.00 miOvercast67°F61°F81%1020.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHZY

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE7E4E5E4E6E6E5E4NE3NE3CalmCalmSE5SE4SE4SE5SE4SE5S4SE4SE3SE5SE6SE7
2 days agoCalmN3N6N7N7NW66N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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