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PZZ450 Pt St George To Cape Mendocino Out 10 Nm- 233 Am Pdt Sat Sep 23 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening...
Today..S winds 5 kt. Waves nw 3 ft at 9 seconds. Haze.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves nw 4 ft at 10 seconds. Slight chance of rain.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt...rising to 10 to 20 kt. Waves nw 5 ft at 9 seconds. Chance of rain.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 30 kt. Waves sw 8 ft at 9 seconds...and nw 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Mon..S winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves W 13 ft at 14 seconds. Showers and slight chance of tstms.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves W 14 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves W 10 ft at 12 seconds.

PZZ400 233 Am Pdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis for northern california waters..Relatively calm winds and low seas across the waters through tonight. Southerlies will develop Sunday ahead of a front. Strong gale force wind gusts are expected Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, with the strongest gusts expected north of cape mendocino. Locally gale force wind gusts expected around pt st george and cape mendocino Sunday night through Monday morning.

FXUS66 KMFR 231154 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 454 AM PDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Updated AVIATION Section

DISCUSSION
An upper level trough will begin to move into the Pacific Northwest today with a strong cold front reaching the coast late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, then moving inland Monday morning and afternoon. Behind the front, a large upper trough will push inland over the region Monday night and Tuesday.
With the front, strong, gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall impacts are expected late Sunday through Monday. The highest wind impacts will be along the coast and into the Shasta Valley. Heaviest rainfall will be along the coast, over the coastal mountains and into southwest Josephine and western Siskiyou County.

Today, the main impacts will be mainly with air quality as southwest flow ahead of the trough allows wildfire smoke from fires in northern California and southwest Oregon to spread across the area. Otherwise, expect near seasonable temperature and breezy afternoon winds across inland areas and a chance for light rain showers along and near the coast.

The pattern will change beginning Sunday as a strong front approaches. Late Sunday into Monday, the front will gradually move inland with widespread rain spreading across the area. Heaviest rain (1 to 3 inches) is expected along the coast and into the coastal mountains, southwest Josephine and western Siskiyou Co with moderate rain (0.5 to 1.25 inches) across the Umpqua Valley, Jackson County, central Siskiyou County and the Cascades. Lighter rain is expected east of the Cascades. While this rainfall will be mostly beneficial as we are coming out of the dry season, there is a risk that moderate to heavy rainfall could produce debris flows on this season's burn scars. A flood watch continues in portions of Curry, Coos, southwest Douglas County and western Siskiyou County (please see the FFAMFR for details). The watch covers areas where debris flow or flash flooding are a concern, including around the Tyee Ridge, Anvil, and Head fires.
Additionally, localized water accumulation or road ponding may be an issue anywhere with poor drainage, or drainage clogged with debris. Rainfall may also result in slick roadways. Use extra care traveling around areas of accumulated or standing water.

With this front and upper trough there is also a chance (15-25%)
for thunderstorms Sunday evening/night over the coastal waters and Monday morning through Monday evening for the coast, coastal mountains and inland into western Douglas, western Josephine and extreme western Siskiyou Counties.

Finally, ahead of and with the frontal passage, strong gusty winds are expected to develop across much of the area. Models show a 45 to 60 kt 700 mb jet (southwest winds) moving inland over the area Sunday evening and Monday, and a 50-65 kt low level jet (southerly winds) moving into the coast Sunday afternoon and night. High resolution models and model guidance support a potential for high winds (gusts 50-65 mph) along the coast and into the Shasta Valley late Sunday into Monday. A high wind watch remains in effect for the coast and southern Shasta Valley (NPWMFR). For other inland areas expect gusty south to southwest winds, strongest over the mountains and east of the Cascades. The National Blend of Models shows a high chance for gusts of 34 mph or greater (60-90% chance) for most all areas east of the Cascades late Sunday through Monday with a 30-60% chance of seeing gusts of 41 mph or greater. Locally, model guidance supports gusts of around 50 mph, including over the higher mountains in eastern Klamath, Lake and Modoc Counties and in the Summer Lake area. Where rain is more limited on Sunday (across Lake County), gusty winds may result in blowing dust, especially for areas across northern and east- central Lake County.

Behind this front, the upper trough will move into the area bringing a showery and cool pattern Monday night and Tuesday. Then another frontal system may move inland late Tuesday night and Wednesday.



AVIATION
23/12Z TAFs...IFR/LIFR is widespread along the coast, especially from Cape Blanco southward this morning. Areas of MVFR stratus exist north of Cape Blanco, including at North Bend and portions of interior Coos Couny. These lower conditions will become VFR later this morning/early this afternoon as a weak front dissipates near the coast. This front could bring some light showers/light rain to North Bend through this evening, but nothing more than a brief/vicinity shower near Roseburg. Lower ceilings will likely return to the coast tonight. Farther inland, VFR will prevail with just some high and mid level cloudiness at time in Medford and at Klamath Falls. However, areas of smoke and/or haze could limit visibility to MVFR at times, especially at Medford this morning.
-Spilde



MARINE
Updated 230 AM September 23, 2023...Relatively calm conditions are expected to continue today, with light to moderate southerly winds and low seas as a cold front weakens over the area.

A strong storm for this time of the year will begin to take shape tonight with a surface low deepening near 140W and 45N, moving northeast Sunday, then more northerly Sunday night. Meanwhile, a strong occluded front (for this time of the year) will approach the waters Sunday with south winds increasing to advisory levels quickly during the morning. Strong gales and a period of very steep, hazardous seas are then expected across all waters by Sunday afternoon, lasting through at least Sunday night (Gale Warning is in effect). Model 925 mb winds approach 75kt in the northern outer zone Sunday night (beyond 10 NM from shore north of Cape Blanco), which could result in occasional storm force wind gusts there (greater than 55 kt). We'll be monitoring this to see if an upgrade is necessary.

The front will move inland Monday morning and winds will gradually diminish below gales. However, a fresh swell will quickly follow the passage of the front late Monday morning, with west swells peaking in the 14-18 foot range at 14 seconds Tuesday. So, while winds will ease, the very steep, hazardous sea state will persist through Tuesday afternoon.

By mid week, models show another low headed toward Vancouver Island with a front approaching the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This typically results in at least small craft conditions and possibly gales. Ensemble members show about a 30-40% chance of gale force wind gusts across the northern waters (north of Cape Blanco) during this time period, but this appears like a fairly quick-moving system, so it shouldn't last too long. We'll continue to evaluate and focus more on specifics as we get closer. -Spilde


FIRE WEATHER
Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, September 22, 2023...Warm and dry weather will continue today with breezy afternoon winds. Minimum humidities will remain low, especially east of the Cascades and for valleys in Jackson and Siskiyou counties, but not critically low. So we aren't anticipating any critical fire weather conditions through the forecast period.

A moist front will arrive Sunday into Monday followed by a large scale trough. This will influence the weather through at least the middle of next week. Strong gusty winds are expected ahead of and with the arrival of the front Sunday afternoon and night with gusty winds continuing into Monday but humidities will be increasing at the same time. High wind watches are in place for exposed and elevated areas along the coast and for areas in the southern Shasta Valley due to the potential for winds to gust up to 65 mph (Please see the NPWMFR for details). Strong, gusty winds are also expected across higher peaks in western Siskiyou County, the Siskiyous and from the Cascades east late Sunday through Monday afternoon (gusts 30-45 mph likely and locally higher 50-60 mph).

Widespread wetting rainfall is expected late Sunday through Monday, which will be moderate to heavy at times west of the Cascades.

Storm total rainfall (late Sunday afternoon through Monday night)
of 1 to 3 inches is expected along the coast and over coastal mountains with 1 to 2 inches across southwest Josephine and western Siskiyou Counties. Further inland across the Umpqua, Jackson county and central Siskiyou County, storm total rainfall of around 0.5 to 1.25 inches is expected. The heaviest rainfall rates are expected late Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for these areas along the coast, into Josephine and western Siskiyou Co. The National Blend of Models shows a high probability (80-90%) of greater than an inch of rain in 24 hours (Sunday evening through Monday afternoon) along the coast, into the coastal mountains and over the mountains in western Siskiyou Co.
The National Blend of Models also indicates a 40-60% probability of over 2 inches of rainfall in 24 hours across Curry County and extreme southwest Josephine and extreme western Siskiyou counties. Given the relatively hefty precipitation amounts (1" to 3") expected over the ongoing fires, debris flows and/or landslides are a concern and a Flood Watch is in effect most of these burn scars. This includes the Flat fire, Anvil fire, Tyee Complex, Smith River Complex, the Head fire and the McKinney burn scar from 2022. Rainfall is also expected east of the Cascades as well, but amounts will be significantly less...generally 0.15"-0.50" for fire weather zones 624 and eastern 284, and a tenth of an inch of less across the Modoc and fire weather zone 625.

Deep upper troughing remains over the area Tuesday with cool and showery weather continuing through much of next week. -CC



MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for ORZ021>024.

High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for ORZ021-022.

CA...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for CAZ080-081.

High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356- 370-376.

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Crescent City
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Sat -- 12:38 AM PDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:57 AM PDT     4.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:03 PM PDT     3.99 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:07 PM PDT     6.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California, Tide feet

Crescent City
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:39 AM PDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:05 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:57 AM PDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:05 PM PDT     3.99 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:08 PM PDT     6.48 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31), Tide feet

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