Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fort Jones, CA

FXUS66 KMFR 172104 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 204 PM PDT Sat May 17 2025

DISCUSSION
Showers continue under a passing upper trough this afternoon. Amounts will be generally light, with more constant showers over the Cascades, the Warner Mountains, and southern Lake County. Slight thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for Douglas and Jackson County (10-15%) as well as east Modoc and southeast Lake counties (15-20%). Any thunderstorms that do develop this afternoon and evening are most likely to be isolated and not severe. Gusty winds, locally heavy showers, and cloud-to-ground lightning strikes may be possible. Late night snow showers are possible over the highest elevations of the Cascades, but accumulation at pass levels is not expected.

Activity decreases overnight into Sunday, with a few last showers possibly lingering over Douglas County or the Cascades until the afternoon. Daytime highs will increase a few degrees for west side valleys, but temperatures will stay below seasonal levels.

Conditions through the week look to be defined by zonal flow aloft.
Temperatures rise to seasonal levels on Monday, with mid 60s along the Oregon coast and low to mid 70s for west side valleys. East side areas look to be in the mid to high 60s. A weak front looks to bring light showers to Coos, Curry, and Douglas counties as well as the Cascades through the day Monday. A bundle of upper level instability looks to pass over the area on late Wednesday or early Thursday, but expected dry conditions offer little to fuel any development.
Isolated or scattered showers are possible west of the Cascades, but chances are moderate to low (10-50%). By Friday, west side valleys warm to mid to high 70s, with high 60s to mid 70s east of the Cascades.

An upper ridge looks to develop over the weekend, bringing a period of dry, stable weather. Additional warming is possible on Saturday, while guidance points to Sunday being noticeably warmer. There's still some uncertainty with how warm temperatures will get over the weekend , which depends on where the ridge develops. Using Medford as an example, ECMWF and GFS meteograms favor high 70s to mid 80s while NBM probabilistic guidance has a 55% chance for Sunday highs to exceed 85 degrees. The forecast beyond next Sunday remains uncertain as well, with ECMWF meteogram guidance starting to show uniform signals for light showers at North Bend for Memorial Day.
The GFS and NBM show lower chances but the chances that do appear match up well with the ECMWF. -TAD
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