Sunrise 5:13 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 2:39 AM   Moonset 6:47 PM

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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 104 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Rest of tonight - W winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 1 foot at 4 seconds and S 1 foot at 7 seconds. Wed - W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 1 foot at 2 seconds and E 1 foot at 6 seconds. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 1 foot at 3 seconds and se 1 foot at 7 seconds. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 1 foot at 8 seconds. Thu night through Fri night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 9 seconds. Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. Sat night and Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 104 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Broad high pres over new york to build over the waters by Wed and remain in place thru Wed night. Weak cold front moves over the waters on Thu, with chances for showers and Thunderstorms. Cold front stalls Fri, with low pres then moving west of the waters this weekend.

FXUS61 KBOX 030153 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 953 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will bring another beautiful day of weather on Wednesday with comfortable humidity. A typical summertime pattern will set up from the 4th of July through early next week with very warm and humid conditions. There will be a risk of a few showers and t-storms at times through the period but most of the time will likely be dry.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
935 PM Update:

High pressure now over northern Providence County leading to temps falling into the lower to mid 60s over southeast New England, but are a little warmer in interior MA/CT where current readings are still in the upper 60s to low 70s. Brought temps up a few degrees through 1 AM in western locations; we should still see strong radiational cooling take place in most areas, even with a stream of cirrus cloudiness moving in, so kept lows unchanged. Dewpoints are also a little higher than last night in the mid to upper 50s, so we could have to watch for patchy radiation fog in the typical prone locations, but also in southeast MA where temperature/dewpoint spreads are narrower.

Previous discussion:

305 PM Update...

* Mainly clear tonight other than some high clouds * Cool with lows mainly in the 50s to lower-middle 60s urban centers

Large high pressure will remain in control of our weather tonight.
This will result in calm/light winds and a very good night of radiational cooling given the dry airmass in place for July standards. Model cross sections do indicate a bit of high cloudiness may spill into the region from the northwest overnight...but it should not have a significant impact on temps. Low temps should bottom out between 50 and 55 in the normally coolest outlying locations...to the lower to middle 60s in the urban heat islands of Boston/Providence.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Key Points...

* Plenty of sunshine Wed with highs mainly in the middle-upper 80s * Not as cool Wed night with lows in the lower-middle 60s

Details...

Wednesday...

High pressure slowly slides east of the region...but will remain in control of our weather. So while we will see some mid-level cloudiness...expect plenty of sunshine. This should result in high temps Wed mainly in the middle to upper 80s. Dewpoints should remain in the 50s...so still a very comfortable day for early July.

Wednesday night...

High pressure will continue to move further east and away from the region
At the same time
a mid level warm front will approach from the west. This should result in some clouds overspreading the region after midnight with even a few spot showers possible across the interior toward daybreak Thu. Low temps will only drop into the lower to middle 60s...so quite a bit milder than tonight.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Key Points...

* Above normal temps and elevated humidity from 4th of July through early next week

* Some risk for a few showers or t-storms through early next week but dry weather most of the time

Thursday and Friday...

Mid level ridge will get shunted to the south as northern stream shortwave energy passes well to the north. This results in a quasi- zonal flow with a couple weak shortwaves moving north of the region.
Not much instability on Thu with limited large scale forcing so just a low risk for a few showers in western New Eng closest to instability axis to the west, otherwise dry. Then on Friday, a bit more instability but limited forcing again so while we can't rule out a few showers or a t-storm, much of the day should be dry. Any convection Friday would be favored near the south coast where elevated PWAT axis is located. It will be warm and humid with highs in the 80s and dewpoints climbing to near 70.

Saturday through Tuesday...

SNE will be on the western periphery of the Atlantic sub-tropical ridge while a series of mid level shortwaves move through the Gt Lakes. This will result in SW flow aloft with pulses of high PWATs surging into the region so can't rule out a few instances of convection, but timing and areal coverage is very much uncertain given weak forcing regime. One de-amplifying shortwave lifts NE from the Gt Lakes Sat with anomalous PWATs up to 2.25" moving into SNE.
The Sat to Sat night period may be be the best chance for scattered showers/t-storms as weak front approaches from the west. Overall a very warm and humid period as 850 mb temps average 16-19C. Highs will be well into the 80s, with a few 90 degree readings in the interior, but a bit cooler south coast. Sat will be especially humid with dewpoints approaching the mid 70s.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update...

Tonight through Wednesday night...High Confidence.

VFR conditions persist through Wed night. Localized sea breezes come to an end early this evening...otherwise calm/light S winds tonight. SSW winds increase to between 5 and 15 knots Wed morning. Sea breezes will likely develop again along portions of the immediate coast...but they should kick by late afternoon. S-SW winds generally 10 knots or less Wed night.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Sea breezes kick out by 01z-02z this evening. Another round of sea breezes develop Wed am but they should shift out by late Wed afternoon as the winds shift to the S.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Independence Day: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Wednesday night...High Confidence.

High pressure over the waters tonight slowly shift to the east Wed and Wed night. Light winds tonight will become SSW at 10 to 15 knots Wed into Wed night with a few gusts up to 20 knots
However
the pressure gradient should remain weak enough to keep winds/seas below small craft advisory levels.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Independence Day: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Belleville
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Tue -- 02:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:07 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:54 PM EDT     4.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
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Belleville, Acushnet River, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, Tide feet

Cape Cod Canal
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Tue -- 12:41 AM EDT     0.07 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:50 AM EDT     4.14 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:11 AM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:58 AM EDT     -4.23 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 01:06 PM EDT     0.19 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:13 PM EDT     4.07 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:27 PM EDT     -0.14 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM EDT     -4.49 knots Max Ebb
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Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current, knots

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