Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Warwick, RI

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

Key Point:

* Frost Advisory for interior Massachusetts late tonight.

No weather concerns for the second-half of Mother's Day. Northwest gusts will continue through the rest of the day, but will begin to diminish after sunset.

Wind becomes light to calm tonight and with the combination of clear skies, should have good radiational cooling across the region. This is due in part to surface high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes expanding into southern New England. Because of this, leaned heavily on the CONSMOS to derive the overnight lows, which are expected to fall into the 30s and lower 40s across most of the region. With the coldest areas of northwest Massachusetts falling into the low 30s.
While not expecting a hard freeze, cannot rule out areas of frost across interior Massachusetts, thus a Frost Advisory from midnight to 6am Monday has been issued for Franklin and Hampshire Counties.
Thinking the urban core of Boston remains "warmest" with lows in the middle to upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

A chilly morning will trend warmer by the afternoon, the question is how warm do we get. Latest guidance suggests the boundary layer may remain shallow, extending 950mb to 900mb with a thermal inversion above. That said, if this layer warms quicker it could deepen the boundary layer thus tap into the warmer 850mb layer. Expecting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, cooler at the coast due to the onshore south/southwesterly winds. Not as gusty, but will have winds gusting between 20 and 25 mph. In general a sunny day with high pressure and a mid-level ridge to the west. Eventually high clouds stream in from the southwest late Monday afternoon and continues into the overnight hours. The overnight is mild due to increasing cloud cover and WAA aloft. Nighttime lows only drop to the low and middle 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Key Messages...

* Pleasant May weather for much of the week with highs in the 70s away from the immediate coast and perhaps 80-85 by Fri and/or Sat

* Scattered showers at times for the second half of the week along with increasing humidity...but a washout is not expected

* Greatest risk for a few thunderstorms appears to be Fri and/or Sat

Details...

Upper level ridge axis shifts east of the region for the second half of the week. Shortwave energy will follow bringing the risk for scattered showers at times...mainly for the latter part of the week.
That being said...the shortwave energy tends to dampen out a bit on approach so not expecting a washout with plenty of dry weather mixed in too. Warm advection will allow for some low level moisture return and increasing humidity for the second half of the week. This will also result in a risk for some low clouds/fog patches especially during the overnight and early morning hours.

Pleasant temperatures are on tap for the region too with highs mainly in the 70s...except cooler at times near the immediate coast with onshore flow. We may see high temps reach 80-85 in some locales by Fri and/or Sat and it will feel summerlike with the increasing humidity
While it is a long way off
the best chance for a few thunderstorms will be Fri and/or Sat when somewhat better instability exists. Whether there ends up being a convective threat remains to be seen and will revolve around the timing of shortwave energy and other mesoscale factors.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update...

Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR. NW winds diminishing this evening and becoming light/calm overnight.

Monday...High Confidence.

VFR. S winds Mon morning become SW by early-mid afternoon with gusts on the order of 20 to 25 knots.

Monday Night...High Confidence.

Increasing clouds from the southwest to northeast, through dry, with VFR CIGs . Southwest winds diminish, becoming northerly between 5 to 8 knots.

KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF

KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Monday Night...High Confidence.

High pressure will build eastward from the Great Lakes tonight into Monday then pushes offshore Monday night. Gusty northwest wind this afternoon diminishes after sunset, becoming a southwest wind for Monday. Periodic gust on Monday reach 20 to 25 knots and seas tonight into Monday night are 1-3 feet.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Monday for MAZ002-003-008-010.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.