Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Warwick, RI

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Key Messages:

* Stratus and patchy fog redeveloping

* Scattered showers possible late

Weak mid level ridging will set up over New Eng tonight with weak large scale subsidence for most of the night. However, deepening moisture plume approaches from the west ahead of a weak shortwave so scattered showers may develop late tonight from west to east.
Otherwise, ridging at the surface will extend west across SNE with continued low level SE flow providing abundant low level moisture.
Result will be stratus and patchy fog redeveloping and expanding across the region tonight. Lows will range from 55 to 60.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Key Messages:

* Lots of clouds with scattered showers at times Tue and Tue night

* Below normal temps Tue but increasing humidity

Tuesday and Tuesday night...

Unsettled pattern developing as a couple weak shortwaves will be moving through. Meanwhile, an area of deep moisture sets up across SNE with anomalous PWAT plume increasing to 1.75 to 2 inches.
Forcing for ascent is weak but enough forcing acting on high moisture will lead to scattered showers moving through. Timing of these showers is uncertain and not expecting a washout, but there will be showers at times Tue into Tue night. Not expecting any thunder but may see some convective showers developing as stability decreases.

Otherwise, expect gloomy conditions with lots of stratus through the period. The cloud cover and SE flow will result in cooler than normal temps Tue with highs upper 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints will be climbing into the low and mid 60s so there will be somewhat of a humid feel to the airmass. A milder night Tue night with lows in the lower 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Messages:

* Becoming hotter each day through Thursday, then cooling off a bit Friday through the weekend before our hottest stretch of the year early next week.

* Severe weather possible on Thursday, greatest risk is damaging winds

* Dry Friday and Saturday but chance for some showers at some point in the weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday...

The return of more summer-like warmth comes Wednesday as southern New England will be sandwiched between high pressure over the Atlantic and low pressure moving through the Great Lakes. This places us beneath warm, moist SW flow until a cold front sweeps through late Thursday. Before this, 925 temps reach 20C on Wednesday and near 25C on Thursday which should lead to high temperatures in the 80s and upper 80s/low 90s respectively. It will also feel very humid as dewpoints surge into the upper 60s Wednesday and even low 70s potentially by Thursday. Not only will this increase the apparent temperatures, it will contribute to a great amount of instability on Thursday; guidance indicates several thousand J/kg of MUCAPE available. This, combined with mid level lapse rates approaching 7 c/km and 30-40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear will lead to a decent chance of severe weather on Thursday. SREF guidance indicates a 40-50% probability of CAPE > 1000 J/kg and bulk shear >30kts, maximized over western and central SNE. Timing and severity will depend on several factors, including how quickly that cold front moves through. At this point the ECMWF would indicate a quicker passage, closer to the peak heating of the day while the GFS is slower, after sunset. Stay tuned.

Friday through early next week...

Friday into the weekend we'll be under drier W/NW flow and with a lingering trough/cyclonic flow aloft leading to some diurnal clouds Friday and potential for a weak shortwave moving through around late Saturday/early Sunday which may bring some showers but confidence is low at this point. What is more certain is that the pattern will be changing as we go into next week with high confidence of a building ridge and very hot temperatures for the first half of next week. At this point both the EPS and GEFS indicate a 70+% chance of 90+F on Monday and a near certainty by Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through 12z Tuesday: Low to moderate confidence.

A broad mix of VFR-MVFR with even some patchy IFR, with the lowest categories currently over the interior in some showers.
Forecast guidance has been poor in handling these observed conditions which renders a low-confidence forecast. Trend will be for deteriorating conditions where VFR currently exists toward at least widespread MVFR/intervals IFR by daybreak, with hit- or- miss light showers that won't restrict visby. Light E/SE winds.

Today: Moderate confidence.

Areas MVFR/IFR stratus should improve toward BKN-OVC MVFR bases.
After early-AM showers move east, best chance at hit-or-miss showers mainly interior but confidence in timing/coverage is low and may end up being dry for most of the day. SE to S winds under 10 kt.

Tonight: Moderate confidence.

Deteriorating conditions toward MVFR-IFR with patchy IFR-MVFR visby fog. A better chance at showers tonight and especially overnight, which continues to move east and offshore toward daybreak. SE to S winds 5 kt or less.

Wednesday: High confidence in trends but moderate on exact timing.

MVFR/IFR stratus from overnight scatters/lifts to BKN VFR bases, with showers ending early in the day. S/SW winds 5-10 kt.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Current VFR should deteriorate to MVFR stratus after 08z but the timing and is low confidence. Categories should linger around MVFR levels most of the day with any showers being hit-or-miss. E/SE winds 5-10 kt.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR/psbl IFR cigs with -SHRA thru 16z, then improving to BKN MVFR bases. Light SE winds.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Juneteenth: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday:

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Tuesday night...

Persistent E-SE winds through Tue gradually becoming more southerly Tue night. Speeds below 20 kt and seas 2-4 ft. Areas of fog developing tonight into Tue morning with more fog possible Tue night. Scattered showers at times Tue and Tue night.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Juneteenth: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.