Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Curtice, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) More fog possible again tonight with rain chances becoming more isolated to scattered, followed by a drier period Friday and temperatures increasing as a warm front moves through.

2) Thunderstorm chances on the increase Saturday in the warm sector with increasing low level winds, dewpoints, and an approaching cold front.

3) Drier Sunday and Monday, continued above average temperatures, and another frontal system midweek.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As rain lifts northeastward with a warm front that is ever so slowly creeping in the same direction, precipitation will become more isolated to scattered this evening and into the overnight time frame. So there is a drying trend overall to the forecast in the next 24 hours, but without the ability to scour out the saturated near-surface layer of the atmosphere and a stubborn inversion in place, fog and low stratus will likely be an issue once again heading into tonight and could need another Dense Fog Advisory for a third night in a row. A warm front finally makes better headway through the CWA Friday, and temperatures will finally see the increases into the 60s with some low 70s possible in the southern tier.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The first real threat for severe weather this year arrives on Saturday as the SPC has a portion of the eastern CWA outlooked for a Slight Risk. Low level winds will be on the increase in the warm sector ahead of an evening cold front. Meanwhile, dewpoints will be decidedly spring-like with upper 50s and lower 60s expected. This will help with developing instability into the afternoon hours as the aforementioned low level jet strengthens to the 40-50kt range, making winds the primary threat in this case. With 0-6km shear around 50kts, expecting line segments to form ahead of the cold front in the potential severe weather day.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Cold front late Saturday clears the airmass, and knocks temperatures down 15 degrees or so for Sunday, climbing again Monday. Significant warm-up through Tuesday/Wednesday ahead of another potent cold front expected midweek. Out in the forecast quite a ways, but this synoptic setup suggest another convective potential.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/
As a near stationary boundary lingers across northern Ohio through much of this period, conditions are expected to remain IFR/LIFR at all terminals. Through this evening, light rain showers across the area will continue with visibilities being reduced to generally 2-4SM with locally worse conditions in the heaviest showers. Ceilings are widespread between 300-800 ft and will persist. Tonight, showers should diminish from west to east, but with that boundary lingering, plenty of moisture and warmer temperatures will once again result in widespread fog developing. By 06Z, all terminals should be socked in with fog with persistent visibilities below 1SM. The exception may be terminals immediately along the lakeshore that may remain north of the boundary, but either way IFR/LIFR ceilings will still reduce conditions. On Friday, that aforementioned boundary will begin to lift north as a warm front, gradually improving conditions. Most terminals will not see non-IFR conditions until after this period, unless the boundary speeds up.

Winds will generally be light and variable through this period, becoming southwest at 5-10 knots Friday afternoon.

Outlook...Occasional periods of rain through Saturday will bring additional non-VFR conditions.

MARINE
Northeast winds of 10-15 knots across Lake Erie today will persist through much of Friday before a warm front lifts north late Friday into Saturday. Behind the warm front, winds will veer to become southwesterly, increasing to 15-20 knots through Saturday evening. As a surface ridge builds over the area late Saturday, winds will weaken to 5-10 knots before ramping back up Sunday night to 15-20 knots. The active pattern will continue to bring elevated wind speeds periodically across Lake Erie this week. Although the lake remains mostly ice covered, where there are breaks in ice, waves will periodically increase to 2-4 feet. These breaks are primarily observed in the western basin. As temperatures remain above average the next couple of days, the ice thickness and coverage will continue to slowly decrease.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.