Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Beverly Shores, IN
 | Sunrise 5:21 AM Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 1:50 AM Moonset 12:29 PM |
LMZ745 Expires:202505201545;;835906 Fzus53 Klot 200833 Nshlot
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 333 am cdt Tue may 20 2025
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz743>745-201545- calumet harbor il to gary in-gary to burns harbor in- burns harbor to michigan city in- 333 am cdt Tue may 20 2025
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am cdt this morning - .
.gale warning in effect from 7 am cdt this morning through this afternoon - .
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through this evening - .
Today - East winds to 30 kt increasing to southeast gales to 35 kt after daybreak. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tonight - East winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely and areas of drizzle overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday night - Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt. Showers likely in the evening, then chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 333 am cdt Tue may 20 2025
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz743>745-201545- calumet harbor il to gary in-gary to burns harbor in- burns harbor to michigan city in- 333 am cdt Tue may 20 2025
LMZ700
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beverly Shores, IN
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FXUS63 KLOT 200730 AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 230 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Widespread soaking rain and embedded thunderstorms this morning. Locally heavy rainfall possible.
- Chance (about 30-40%) for a brief pop of strong winds, gusting over 45 mph, this morning.
- Increased threat for severe weather this afternoon, mainly south of the Kankakee River. All severe hazards, including a few tornadoes, are possible.
- Cloudy, cool, with showers/drizzle on Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025
Through Wednesday:
Rain and strong wind threat this morning...
The forecast this morning remains on track, with a widespread region of soaking rainfall and embedded thunderstorms pivoting out of central and southern Illinois. This activity will lift northward across the region through midday, with the steadiest/heaviest activity ending south of I-80 through mid- late morning.
The other aspect we're watching for this morning is the potential for a brief period of strengthening east/southeasterly wind gusts towards and just after daybreak. This is associated with a general low-level mass response as a sub-1000 mb surface low takes shape across western Iowa/northwest Missouri. As this occurs, low-level wind fields are ubiquitously forecast to increase rapidly, with 900 mb flow pushing past 50 knots in spots, and nearly to 40 knots at 950 mb (just a few hundred feet off the ground) during the 6-10 AM timeframe. Rain/low clouds should tend to temper mixing heights a bit, but we sometimes see near-surface lapse rates steepen up on the southern flank of these stratiform precipitation shields, and this seems to be what guidance like the HRRR, RAP, and HRDPS are picking up on later this morning. It's tough to determine just how much of this flow we'll manage to work to the surface, but did end up nudging wind gusts up a smidge right up to 45 mph, particularly west of the Fox Valley to accommodate the eye-popping near- surface kinematic profiles.
Afternoon Severe Threat...
Attention then turns to a severe weather threat midday into the afternoon. While there are still plenty of uncertainties, concern for strong-severe storms has increased, including the potential for a few tornadoes. The main corridor for severe weather will be tied to a northward-advancing warm front, and considerable uncertainty regarding its northern terminus/end point remains.
Current model guidance forecasts the warm front slowly meandering northward this morning into the afternoon, at least to about a Tonica (southern La Salle county) to Rensselaer (southern Jasper county) vicinity. Whether the front manages to move farther north than this remains unclear. Climatology and the expansive nature of morning rain/low cloud cover suggest any farther northward advancement will be less likely. However, guidance like the HRRR has been keying in on the development of a convectively-augmented vort max/MCV developing out of northeast Kansas and advancing central Illinois this afternoon.
This would locally enhance low-level wind fields, potentially both encouraging the front northward and driving stronger surface low pressure near the Mississippi River. Based on recent radar and satellite trends, the development of this MCV appears to be underway southwest of Kansas City. This seems to be further corroborated by several atmospheric motion vector retrievals showing 40 knots of southwesterly 700 mb flow on this feature's southeastern flanks.
In addition to this, with the morning departure of widespread rainfall, guidance suggests at least partial clearing occurring across our far southern locales, resulting in temperatures pushing towards or into the lower 70s. Diminishing CIN, steepening low-level lapse rates, and mesoscale-enhanced wind fields associated with an MCV interacting with a warm front don't usually portend quiet weather in our region this time of year.
As it stands right now, the greatest concern for severe weather is near the previously-mentioned Tonica-Rensselaer line, or in the immediate vicinity of the warm front this afternoon, and is right in line with SPCs SWODY1 level 2/5 threat area. The severe threat could materialize as early as about noon to 1 pm, but most likely in the 2 pm to 8 pm timeframe. In this corridor, storms with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. Farther to the north of the front, convective inhibition will increase sharply, suggesting the severe threats will become more muted with northward extent --at least the wind and tornado potential. If the warm front manages to wander farther north, severe chances would commensurately move north with it. Careful monitoring of satellite and surface observations will be needed today.
Tonight into Wednesday...
The severe threat will end this evening. Thereafter, precipitation is expected to fill back in across much of the region, with drizzle expanding across the southern half of the area through the late overnight hours, and widespread showers farther north (where deeper moisture will remain in place).
Could even see some patchy dense fog development as the main surface low drifts overhead.
This general setup looks to persist through most of the day on Wednesday, with patchy to areas of drizzle south of I-80, and heavier showers farther north. Instability will be in short supply, but persistent upper-level divergence suggests that sprockets of locally heavy rainfall-producing showers will remain possible north of I-80 and particularly near/north of I-90 during this time frame.
Carlaw
Wednesday Night through Monday:
Overall trends in guidance have slowed with showers/drizzle likely ongoing Wednesday night, finally dissipating and pushing south of the area on Thursday. Though as another front moves south down the lake and then inland Thursday afternoon, this may allow for some additional showers Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening.
Beyond this time period, for the end of the week, through the weekend and into early next week, pattern supports various upper lows transversing the Great Lakes region or one large upper trough across the region. This will maintain mainly cooler north or northeast flow. Precip chances are tricky and dependent on the exact setup and various waves moving through the area. There isn't much support/consensus among the ensembles for precip chances, other than perhaps some support next Monday/Tuesday.
Blended guidance is now chance pops from Saturday night through next Tuesday. This seems aggressive, especially early on in the weekend, but made no changes.
Temperatures will remain below normal through the period with lows mainly in the 40s. Could be some upper 30s Friday morning.
Highs will likely rebound into the upper 60s maybe lower 70s by the weekend well inland, but cooler temps expected near Lake Michigan with prevailing easterly winds. cms
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025
Forecast concerns include...
Rain with a chance of thunderstorms this morning.
Showers with a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.
Ifr/lifr cigs this morning through Wednesday morning.
Strong/gusty easterly winds through this afternoon.
A large area of rain across eastern IA and western IL will move northeast across the terminals overnight through late this morning. There is a chance of thunderstorms, especially across northwest IL and at RFD and maintained prob mention there. Its possible a short time period, 1-2 hours, of prob or tempo thunder maybe needed at the Chicago terminals around or just before daybreak this morning, but confidence is too low to include with this forecast.
There will likely be some showers around this afternoon along with a few thunderstorms, with the best chance of thunder mainly south of the terminals, but maintained current prob mention for thunder for the Chicago terminals this afternoon. Another period of showers or light rain is possible this evening, which is then expected to transition to mainly drizzle tonight into Wednesday morning.
Cigs are expected to remain vfr through daybreak and then will steadily lower through mvfr and into ifr by mid morning.
Prevailing ifr cigs are then expected for the remainder of the period with lifr cigs possible, especially tonight into Wednesday morning.
Easterly winds are expected to steadily increase over the next few hours with gusts into the 30-35kt range through mid/late morning. Speeds/gusts will slowly diminish this afternoon, with directions perhaps turning southeast for a time. Gusts are expected to diminish later this evening with winds turning northeast and speeds under 10kts by early Wednesday morning. cms
MARINE
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025
An area of low pressure around 29.5 in/hg will develop and move across Iowa today. Rapidly-strengthening low-level wind fields are expected this morning as this occurs. While there is some uncertainty regarding how much near-surface stability over the lake will cut down the strongest winds mixing to the surface, the chances for a period of 35+ kt gales has increased enough to warrant the issuance of Gale Warnings for the nearshore zones today. The window of strongest winds is from about 8 am to 2 pm, with winds expected to slowly ease thereafter. Small Craft Advisories remain in place after the end of the Gale Warning.
Carlaw
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for the IL nearshore waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CDT Thursday for the IL nearshore waters.
Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the IL nearshore waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the IN nearshore waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for the IN nearshore waters.
Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the IN nearshore waters.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 230 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Widespread soaking rain and embedded thunderstorms this morning. Locally heavy rainfall possible.
- Chance (about 30-40%) for a brief pop of strong winds, gusting over 45 mph, this morning.
- Increased threat for severe weather this afternoon, mainly south of the Kankakee River. All severe hazards, including a few tornadoes, are possible.
- Cloudy, cool, with showers/drizzle on Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025
Through Wednesday:
Rain and strong wind threat this morning...
The forecast this morning remains on track, with a widespread region of soaking rainfall and embedded thunderstorms pivoting out of central and southern Illinois. This activity will lift northward across the region through midday, with the steadiest/heaviest activity ending south of I-80 through mid- late morning.
The other aspect we're watching for this morning is the potential for a brief period of strengthening east/southeasterly wind gusts towards and just after daybreak. This is associated with a general low-level mass response as a sub-1000 mb surface low takes shape across western Iowa/northwest Missouri. As this occurs, low-level wind fields are ubiquitously forecast to increase rapidly, with 900 mb flow pushing past 50 knots in spots, and nearly to 40 knots at 950 mb (just a few hundred feet off the ground) during the 6-10 AM timeframe. Rain/low clouds should tend to temper mixing heights a bit, but we sometimes see near-surface lapse rates steepen up on the southern flank of these stratiform precipitation shields, and this seems to be what guidance like the HRRR, RAP, and HRDPS are picking up on later this morning. It's tough to determine just how much of this flow we'll manage to work to the surface, but did end up nudging wind gusts up a smidge right up to 45 mph, particularly west of the Fox Valley to accommodate the eye-popping near- surface kinematic profiles.
Afternoon Severe Threat...
Attention then turns to a severe weather threat midday into the afternoon. While there are still plenty of uncertainties, concern for strong-severe storms has increased, including the potential for a few tornadoes. The main corridor for severe weather will be tied to a northward-advancing warm front, and considerable uncertainty regarding its northern terminus/end point remains.
Current model guidance forecasts the warm front slowly meandering northward this morning into the afternoon, at least to about a Tonica (southern La Salle county) to Rensselaer (southern Jasper county) vicinity. Whether the front manages to move farther north than this remains unclear. Climatology and the expansive nature of morning rain/low cloud cover suggest any farther northward advancement will be less likely. However, guidance like the HRRR has been keying in on the development of a convectively-augmented vort max/MCV developing out of northeast Kansas and advancing central Illinois this afternoon.
This would locally enhance low-level wind fields, potentially both encouraging the front northward and driving stronger surface low pressure near the Mississippi River. Based on recent radar and satellite trends, the development of this MCV appears to be underway southwest of Kansas City. This seems to be further corroborated by several atmospheric motion vector retrievals showing 40 knots of southwesterly 700 mb flow on this feature's southeastern flanks.
In addition to this, with the morning departure of widespread rainfall, guidance suggests at least partial clearing occurring across our far southern locales, resulting in temperatures pushing towards or into the lower 70s. Diminishing CIN, steepening low-level lapse rates, and mesoscale-enhanced wind fields associated with an MCV interacting with a warm front don't usually portend quiet weather in our region this time of year.
As it stands right now, the greatest concern for severe weather is near the previously-mentioned Tonica-Rensselaer line, or in the immediate vicinity of the warm front this afternoon, and is right in line with SPCs SWODY1 level 2/5 threat area. The severe threat could materialize as early as about noon to 1 pm, but most likely in the 2 pm to 8 pm timeframe. In this corridor, storms with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. Farther to the north of the front, convective inhibition will increase sharply, suggesting the severe threats will become more muted with northward extent --at least the wind and tornado potential. If the warm front manages to wander farther north, severe chances would commensurately move north with it. Careful monitoring of satellite and surface observations will be needed today.
Tonight into Wednesday...
The severe threat will end this evening. Thereafter, precipitation is expected to fill back in across much of the region, with drizzle expanding across the southern half of the area through the late overnight hours, and widespread showers farther north (where deeper moisture will remain in place).
Could even see some patchy dense fog development as the main surface low drifts overhead.
This general setup looks to persist through most of the day on Wednesday, with patchy to areas of drizzle south of I-80, and heavier showers farther north. Instability will be in short supply, but persistent upper-level divergence suggests that sprockets of locally heavy rainfall-producing showers will remain possible north of I-80 and particularly near/north of I-90 during this time frame.
Carlaw
Wednesday Night through Monday:
Overall trends in guidance have slowed with showers/drizzle likely ongoing Wednesday night, finally dissipating and pushing south of the area on Thursday. Though as another front moves south down the lake and then inland Thursday afternoon, this may allow for some additional showers Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening.
Beyond this time period, for the end of the week, through the weekend and into early next week, pattern supports various upper lows transversing the Great Lakes region or one large upper trough across the region. This will maintain mainly cooler north or northeast flow. Precip chances are tricky and dependent on the exact setup and various waves moving through the area. There isn't much support/consensus among the ensembles for precip chances, other than perhaps some support next Monday/Tuesday.
Blended guidance is now chance pops from Saturday night through next Tuesday. This seems aggressive, especially early on in the weekend, but made no changes.
Temperatures will remain below normal through the period with lows mainly in the 40s. Could be some upper 30s Friday morning.
Highs will likely rebound into the upper 60s maybe lower 70s by the weekend well inland, but cooler temps expected near Lake Michigan with prevailing easterly winds. cms
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025
Forecast concerns include...
Rain with a chance of thunderstorms this morning.
Showers with a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.
Ifr/lifr cigs this morning through Wednesday morning.
Strong/gusty easterly winds through this afternoon.
A large area of rain across eastern IA and western IL will move northeast across the terminals overnight through late this morning. There is a chance of thunderstorms, especially across northwest IL and at RFD and maintained prob mention there. Its possible a short time period, 1-2 hours, of prob or tempo thunder maybe needed at the Chicago terminals around or just before daybreak this morning, but confidence is too low to include with this forecast.
There will likely be some showers around this afternoon along with a few thunderstorms, with the best chance of thunder mainly south of the terminals, but maintained current prob mention for thunder for the Chicago terminals this afternoon. Another period of showers or light rain is possible this evening, which is then expected to transition to mainly drizzle tonight into Wednesday morning.
Cigs are expected to remain vfr through daybreak and then will steadily lower through mvfr and into ifr by mid morning.
Prevailing ifr cigs are then expected for the remainder of the period with lifr cigs possible, especially tonight into Wednesday morning.
Easterly winds are expected to steadily increase over the next few hours with gusts into the 30-35kt range through mid/late morning. Speeds/gusts will slowly diminish this afternoon, with directions perhaps turning southeast for a time. Gusts are expected to diminish later this evening with winds turning northeast and speeds under 10kts by early Wednesday morning. cms
MARINE
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025
An area of low pressure around 29.5 in/hg will develop and move across Iowa today. Rapidly-strengthening low-level wind fields are expected this morning as this occurs. While there is some uncertainty regarding how much near-surface stability over the lake will cut down the strongest winds mixing to the surface, the chances for a period of 35+ kt gales has increased enough to warrant the issuance of Gale Warnings for the nearshore zones today. The window of strongest winds is from about 8 am to 2 pm, with winds expected to slowly ease thereafter. Small Craft Advisories remain in place after the end of the Gale Warning.
Carlaw
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for the IL nearshore waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CDT Thursday for the IL nearshore waters.
Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the IL nearshore waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the IN nearshore waters.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for the IN nearshore waters.
Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the IN nearshore waters.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN | 5 mi | 26 min | ESE 12G | 53°F | 29.88 | 46°F | ||
| BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN | 9 mi | 126 min | ESE 9.9G | 56°F | 29.86 | |||
| 45026 - St. Joseph, MI | 28 mi | 46 min | SE 18G | 53°F | 55°F | 2 ft | 29.94 | 43°F |
| CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL | 29 mi | 46 min | ESE 15G | 53°F | 29.84 | 48°F | ||
| CHII2 - Chicago, IL | 35 mi | 26 min | ESE 21G | 55°F | 53°F | |||
| CNII2 | 35 mi | 76 min | E 14 | 53°F | 47°F | |||
| OKSI2 | 37 mi | 166 min | ESE 4.1G | 54°F |
Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
toggle option: (graph/table)
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMGC
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMGC
Wind History Graph: MGC
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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Northern Indiana, IN,
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