Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marion Center, MA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SNE will be in between shortwaves today with one shortwave moving to the mid Atlc region and another moving into northern New Eng. Upper level confluence between these shortwaves along with left entrance region of strong upper jet will result in large scale subsidence and dry weather today. Expect lots of sunshine which will give way to sct-bkn strato-cu this afternoon. 925 mb temps are similar to Thu so not much change in daytime temps with highs mostly upper 20s to lower 30s. A modest W-NW wind 10-15 mph will make it feel a bit colder.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Tonight...

High pres builds over the mid Atlc region with ridging extending northward and approaching New Eng. NW winds will diminish and become light which will result in good radiational cooling again as mainly clear skies expected. Lows will drop into the single numbers, but 10-15F near the coast.

Saturday...

Upper low over northern New Eng moves to the east followed by shortwave ridging which will provide another dry day. Sunshine in the morning will give way to more cloudiness in the afternoon as mid- high level moisture races in from the west as upper jet approaches. Low level temps cool a bit so highs will be mostly 25-30F with NW winds turning W-SW in the afternoon as high pres moves off the mid Atlc coast.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Messages:

* Benign weather conditions continue Sunday though Tuesday, while a primarily dry forecast, nuisance showers are possible during this period.

* Periodic west/southwest gusts between 20 and 30 mph are possible on Sunday through Tuesday, due to modest 850mb jet.

* Near normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday, but the next round of colder weather arrives Wednesday through late next week.

No significant changes to the extended forecast as we anticipate benign weather conditions to end the weekend and continues into the first-half of next week. Sunday, weak low pressure associated with a subtle mid-level trough and shortwave cross northern New England. As mentioned previously, there is not much moisture associated, but the west/southwest flow aloft may minimally enhance PWATs along southern coast of New England. Opt'd to include low-end 'slight chance' POPs for from the eastern tip of Long Island, into coastal Rhode Island, and the south coast of Massachusetts; including the islands and the south facing shoreline of Cape Cod. Given the WAA, this part of the CWA the PType would be rain. Though, into the northern Berkshires enough cold air would support PType of snow. Once again, there is little moisture associated with this passage, not expecting any accumulations or impacts. Additionally, a modest 850mb jet of 35 to 40 knots is aloft Sunday into Tuesday, leading to periodic gusts up to 30 mph from the west/southwest.

As mentioned previously, there are no significant systems on the horizon, yet. While dry weather will prevail, nuisance snow showers remain possible into early next week as guidance has signaled the last few days of weak and moisture starved clippers moving from northern Canada into northern New England. Overnight guidance does hint that a mid-week clipper may trend further south and cross southern New England late Wednesday into early Thursday. Did notice the 00z run of the GFS showed this clipper phasing with a southern stream system, which would transport gulf moisture, leading to a more robust storm. That said, this deterministic run remains as an outlier, 90th percentile snowfall based off the ensembles are less than an inch for most locations. Nevertheless, something to watch as we head into next week, especially if you would like to have more snow.

Given WAA Sunday, highs recover into the middle and upper 30s, a few areas along the coast may push 40F. Heading into early next week, Monday and Tuesday, temperatures are near normal, similar to Sunday.
By mid-week, there are signs that colder air returns and sticks with us for the remainder of the week, below normal highs and lows, and perhaps sub-freezing Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday...High confidence.

VFR through the period. NW wind around 10 kt today, diminishing tonight, then becoming W-SW around 10 kt Sat.

KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday...High Confidence.

W-NW wind 10-20 kt through tonight becoming W Sat afternoon with gusts to 20 kt. Seas below SCA.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.