Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Poughkeepsie, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Thursday into Friday, greatest during the afternoon hours. Some stronger storms may occur, along with locally heavy rainfall.

2) Increasing heat and humidity also returns Thursday into Friday, which may result in heat related impacts, mainly in the mid Hudson Valley.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Deep layer moisture and humidity will increase Thu into Fri, as a southwest flow develops around the periphery of a Bermuda high. Dewpoints still expected to rise into the 70s, with PWAT anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV. Convection will be most likely during the diurnally favored afternoon to early evening hours. There looks to be a lack of synoptic scale forcing much of the time, as a frontal system is expected to be positioned north/west of Lake Ontario with no significant push to the south due to the strength of the Bermuda high. So have lowered NBM PoPs to cap values at 60-70% both days. Thu/Fri will likely not be washouts, although scattered to numerous showers/T-storm should develop in the afternoon. CAPE/shear magnitudes combined with subtle forcing look somewhat modest for widespread severe storms, although a strong/severe storm or two cannot be ruled out. AI NWP convective hazards forecast continues to show some potential for severe storms Thu/Fri. Also with a humid/moist environment and wet antecedent ground conditions in place, there is the potential for isolated flash flooding where persistent or repeated downpours occur. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall both days.

The front may finally start to settle south/east across the area over the weekend although it may wash out by Sun. So there looks to be no discernible change in the moist/humid air mass, with the better likelihood of showers/T-storms on Sat compared to Sun.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

With our area positioned along the northwest periphery of the Bermuda high, increasing heat and humidity are expected Thu into Fri. Although high temperatures will likely remain below 90F, dewpoints rising into the lower/mid 70s will still result in heat indices(feels-like temperatures) in the mid to perhaps upper 90s in valley areas south of Albany. Heat Advisories may eventually be needed for parts of the mid Hudson Valley if confidence in > 95F heat indices increases.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions continue through 05/06z for all TAF sites.
Between 06z and 12z, patchy fog could develop as conditions are favorable during this timeframe for all TAF sites and have been introduced in TEMPO groups. A fluctuation of MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions can occur due to patchy fog through 12z, when VFR conditions return to all TAF sites and continue through the end of the TAF period. Winds continue to be light and variable at KGFL and KPOU. At KALB and KPSF through this afternoon, southwesterly winds continue to range between 5 and 10 knots.
Then after 05/00z, winds become calm for the overnight hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.