Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Poughkeepsie, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1. Elevated risk for fire spread this afternoon and evening, and again for Saturday afternoon and evening. Greatest risk will be outside of the Adirondacks and high terrain of western New England.

2. Rain showers this afternoon through early tonight, with dry conditions Saturday and Sunday. Additional chances of showers and storms arrive Monday, and will remain through the upcoming work week.

3. Well above normal temperatures arrive for the early to middle portions of next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

15z surface analysis showed a cold front stretching from eastern Quebec into southern Ontario and the Ohio River Valley.
Ahead of this front, southwesterly flow was in place across eastern NY and western New England, with a mix of mid to high level clouds and sunshine. As we progress through the day, a continued mix of clouds and sunshine will promote deep vertical mixing, resulting in PM highs rising into the 60s (terrain) to low/mid 70s (valleys). Similar to previous days, it will be quite breezy due to the mixing with southwesterly flows gusting around 25-35 MPH this afternoon. This will promote mixing down of low and mid level dry air, resulting in surface RHs generally around 25-35%. These conditions will lead to an elevated risk of fire spread within portions of the Hudson River Valley, particularly from the Capital Region south into the mid Hudson Valley. A Special Weather Statement for elevated risk of fire spread has been issued for these areas for today.

On Saturday, in the wake of a cold front, another period of deep mixing Saturday morning through early afternoon should promote gusty winds reaching up to 25-30 mph, and RH dropping to 30-35% across the mid Hudson Valley, western MA and NW CT, with potentially higher RH values farther north and west. These conditions could pose an elevated risk for fire spread once again where a wetting rainfall does not occur later today/tonight. Per collaboration with the NYS DEC, fine fuels will remain conducive for fire spread, and therefore and SPS will be issued for much of the Hudson Valley and Catskills later this evening once current SPSs end.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Aforementioned cold front will be approaching the region from the northwest later this afternoon and tonight. A line of rain showers remains in track to develop ahead of and along the front, affected areas mainly north and west of the Mid Hudson Valley and northwest CT. As the previous discussion alluded to, rainfall amounts will drop off across our south and east CWA as the front outruns better upper level support and moisture levels, resulting in decreasing shower coverage. Rainfall totals will range from a few hundredths to around an quarter of an inch, with the higher amounts favored mainly across the western ADKS/Mohawk Valley/southern Vermont (latest NBM probabilities are around 30-70% of > 0.25" here) and lesser amounts across the Mid Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut.

We dry out overall this weekend as high pressure builds across the Northeast. Later Sunday, the cold front will retreat back north across the region as a warm front thanks to southerly flow behind the high, which will usher in a renewed round of lift and moisture beginning Sunday night. Showers, and even thunderstorms, will be possible at this time, especially along and north of Interstate 90 where the front will be positioned and several weak shortwaves will track. In terms of expect rainfall amounts from these showers and storms, confidence at this time is low.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

After a cool down behind the cold front Saturday and Sunday, with daytime highs in the 40s (terrain) to mid 50s (valleys) and lows in the 20s (terrain) and 30s (valleys) Sunday night, temperatures will rebound heading into the work week behind the departing high. 850 hPa temperatures are progged to climb to around 10-15 C Tuesday into Wednesday, with fcst soundings suggesting potential for favorable vertical mixing. This will result in high favorability of daytime high temperatures climbing into the 70s beginning Tuesday, especially for valley locations that do not see too much cloud cover and rain showers.
Some may even see 80 on Wednesday when the warmest 850 hPa temperatures arrive, but confidence on this is low given potential for cloud cover hindering warmth. These warm temperatures are favored to remain in place through the remainder of the forecast period, with long term model guidance exhibiting low confidence on the arrival of the next cold front later in the week into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions continue through 11/00z. Between 11/1z and 11/6z, ceilings begin to lower to MVFR conditions through 11/7-9z. Light rain showers can move through TAF sites between 01z and 09z, but visibilities are forecasted to remain VFR. Confidence is low for KGFL and KPSF if periods of IFR conditions could occur tonight with rain showers, so continued prevailing MVFR conditions in low ceilings. VFR conditions gradually return back between 7z and 13z and prevail to the end of the TAF period.

Winds continue to be southerly this afternoon gusting between 10 and 20 knots. Once the rain showers arrive, gusts should decrease to less than 10 knots. But a cold front moves through transitioning the winds from the south to the west/northwest for after 07z and into the end of the TAF period. Wind gusts also increase behind the front for KALB, KPSF, and KPOU ranging between 10 and 20 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.