Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Highland, NY

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Messages:

- High confidence for below normal temps with accumulating lake effect snow across the western Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley into tonight. Winter Weather Advisory for southern Herkimer Co. for 2-6" snow.

- Winds gusting around 40 mph expected across parts of the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, eastern Catskills, northern Taconics and Berkshires today.

Discussion:

As of 135 AM EST...Old Man Winter makes a Veterans Day appearance for eastern NY and western New England with very cold temps, blustery winds and lake effect and upslope snow showers and flurries. A strong sfc pressure gradient sets up between low pressure over east/southeast Quebec and high pressure over the Deep South. West to northwest winds will increase to 15-25 mph with some gusts to 35-40+ mph. The core of the coldest air at H500 moves over upstate NY/New England with lake effect snow bands developing downwind of Lake Ontario. In the west to northwest flow band/bands in a 290 Deg trajectory look to impact the Mohawk Valley/northern Catskills. Additional upslope snow showers will impact the southern Greens, western Dacks, north- central Taconics and Berkshires. Some of the snow showers will progress into the Capital Region and Hudson River Valley. The best accumulating snowbands look to be over southern Herkimer County based on the CAMS and some impacts may occur along and near the I-90 corridor. Upstream soundings at KRME/KUCA show initially a high inversion height near 8-9 kft AGL with a moderate-extreme class of instability due to favorable delta T's to H850 or H700. The Lake Ontario temp of 12C or so was used.
Some snow accums by early nightfall may get in the 2-6" range in southern Herkimer Co especially west of County Route 28.
Locations in the west-central Mohawk Valley could get 1-3", as well as the western Dacks, northern Catskills and southern Greens from upslope. Some high peaks of the southern Greens may get close to 4". We placed an advisory out for southern Herkimer Co for the snow and potential impact on the Thruway. Most other locations will see a dusting to an inch or so on grassy surfaces where snow showers occur in the valley areas.

Gusty winds to 30-40 mph will also reduce visibilities. We used the NBM 90th percentile for winds & gusts with some slight upward adjustments for peak gusts. Clouds may inhibit widespread gusts>45 mph. Based on momentum transfer profiles on the NAM/HRRR we could see some gusts around 40 mph if we mix to 3kft AGL or so. We would have to mix closer to 5 kft for higher gusts. A few spots in the Berkshires may gust around 45 mph. Max temps will be close to 15 degrees below normal with mid 20s to around 30F over the higher terrain...and mid 30s to around 40F in the valleys. Wind chills or "Feels-like" temps will be in the teens and 20s.

Tonight, the low to mid-level flow backs to the west to southwest ahead of the next clipper or northern stream short- wave trough approaching from the Great Lakes Region. Scattered snow showers will persist over the west/southwest Adirondacks with additional light snow accums of an inch or two. The southern Greens could get another inch or two. The winds will subside to 5-15 mph with lows in the 20s to lower 30s. If snow amounts come up we may need an advisory for northern Herkimer Co.

Wed-Wed night...the clipper/short-wave trough moves across the region with renewed scattered snow and rain showers. The boundary layer temps warm for scattered showers during the day with snow potentially having a tougher time to accumulate during the daylight hours over the terrain. Still light accums for the western Dacks and southern Greens. Temps modify slightly but are still below normal with lower to mid 40s in the valleys and upper 20s to upper 30s over the hills and mtns with south to southwest winds 10-20 mph. A weak cold front/sfc trough moves through Wed night with scattered snow and rain to snow showers.
Best light accums west of the Hudson River Valley over the higher terrain and over the southern Greens with 1-3". Lows will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

By Thursday....cyclonic flow persists with another impulse moving across the region with a possible multi-lake connection for lake effect snow showers for the western Mohawk Valley and northern Catskills. Boundary layer temps look marginal, so accums look light, though the upslope should favor the western Dacks (above 2kft in elevation) for at least another 1-3" of snow. West to northwest winds increase to 10-20 mph with highs 5-10 degrees below normal with mid 40s to close to 50F in the valleys and 30s to lower 40s over the higher terrain.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Message:

- High confidence in below normal temps continuing through the long term period.

Discussion:

The extended features a brief respite in the snow and rain showers late Fri. Another short-wave and attendant sfc trough moves across eastern NY and western New England Thu night through Fri with some lake effect snow and valley rain/snow showers. The low-level flow shift northwest, so narrow multi- bands may impact locations south and west of the Capital Region with light accums Thu night into Fri. Lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s with max temps predominately in the 30s to lower/mid 40s with brisk conditions. The subsidence inversion lowers late in the day with high pressure building in from southeast Canada and the Great Lakes Region. Clearing skies and cold weather Fri night with lows in the teens and 20s due to radiative cooling.
High pressure will yield fair, cold and dry weather with some high clouds increasing from the south and west late in day to open the weekend. Max temps will still run about 10degrees below normal with 30s to lower 40s with some upper 20 over the high peaks.

Low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes Region and southern Ontario Sat night with a warm front lifting north/northeast from the lower Great Lakes Region and Mid Atlantic corridor.
Clouds thicken and lower with some chances of pcpn increasing Sunday morning. Some of the guidance indicates a light wintry mix including some freezing rain. Confidence is low and kept as snow/rain mix for now. Pcpn transitions to rain showers on Sunday with temps rising closer to normal briefly before the cold front moves through potentially Sunday night with brisk winds and another surge of cold advection. A secondary cold front moves through potentially on Monday with lake effect/upslope snow showers once again, as temps run below normal 5-10 degrees to open next week.

AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 12z Wednesday...Flying conditions are VFR at ALB/GFL/POU and MVFR at PSF as of 6:30 AM EST. For GFL/POU, mainly VFR conditions expected through today. Have kept mention of VCSH at GFL for some lake effect showers from mid-morning through late afternoon, and added in VCSH at POU based on latest trends in guidance
For ALB/PSF
more numerous snow showers expected today due to lake effect and upslope. Have converted the prob30 groups from the previous TAFs to a tempo groups with the 12z issuance for ALB/PSF and refined the timing. Have also kept the prevailing groups for snow showers at PSF from late morning through late afternoon. In snow showers, IFR vsbys and MVFR to IFR cigs expected, while ALB will see mainly VFR conditions outside of snow showers and VFR to MVFR conditions at PSF outside of snow showers this morning. Snow showers largely dissipate by sunset, with period of mainly VFR conditions at ALB/GFL/POU through late tonight. PSF will likely see continue MVFR cigs due to upslope flow through much of tonight. Then, late tonight, have included prob30 groups at ALB/GFL/PSF for another round of snow showers.

Winds this morning will be at around 10 kt from the west with gusts of 15-25kt. By mid to late morning, west winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts of 25-35 kt. A few gusts of 35-40 kt are possible at ALB/PSF this afternoon. Given gusty winds and strong low-level jet, low-level turbulence will be possible today especially from late morning through mid to late afternoon. Winds and gusts begin to weaken after sunset, but it may not be until 2-4z that gusts diminish below 15kt. Winds then back to the southwest and eventually the south by 6-8z, lasting through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
SHSN.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ038.
MA...None.
VT...None.