Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Put-in-Bay, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The arrival of hot and humid conditions remains the main concern in the short term. The remnants of the MCS that impacted the Upper Great Lakes looks to be passing generally north of Lake Ontario as the upper level ridge and a capping inversion develops across the local area. As skies have cleared in its wake, temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon, but conditions will trend hotter into Sunday. The upper level ridge expands north across the Great Lakes on Sunday with 500mb heights reaching 596 dm.
In addition, 925mb temperatures will climb another 2-3C from today's values with full sun. Another difference maker will be increasing dewpoints across the region. Dewpoints upstream in Indiana are solidly in the 70s today with several locations in the mid 70s.
Dewpoints in northern Ohio and NW Pennsylvania are expected to be in the low 70s on Sunday, making conditions feel increasingly muggy and humid along with the high heat. This combination will push the heat index to near or above 100 degrees at times on Sunday afternoon and a Heat Advisory goes into effect beginning at noon on Sunday. The strong ridge building aloft will maintain a capping inversion over the region near 7K feet so the remainder of the near term forecast will be dry. Temperatures on Sunday night will provide little relief as they only drop to 70-75 degrees with relative humidity increasing to 80-90% overnight. Make sure to take precautions to stay cool over the coming days.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The very hot and humid conditions will continue through at least mid- week and the Heat Advisory remains in effect through Tuesday evening. Temperatures and heat index values will be very similar on Monday and a few records may be in jeopardy of being tied or broken, (See the Climate section below). By Tuesday the flow across Lake Erie becomes more westerly as a frontal boundary starts to sink south into the Great Lakes Region which could allow for a lake breeze from Cleveland eastward. Despite the possibility of the lake breeze knocking back temperatures a couple degrees during the afternoon near the lake, the cumulative effect of the heat over multiple days with warm nights will still be a stressor on the population. In addition, the lake breeze could provide a focus for an isolated thunderstorm or two across the snowbelt region but coverage is expected to be pretty limited and heat advisory conditions will still be met. Overall model soundings indicate the airmass will be too dry for many thunderstorms to develop but 700mb temperatures may dip below 10C as heights aloft start to come down with the ridge axis extending into New England.
Will have a 20-30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm in favored locations Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening but these are likely to be few and far between.

It is not out of the question that the heat index could exceed 105 degrees, especially if dewpoints surpass expectations. If so, a portion of the area could see an upgrade to an extreme heat warning.
However, models and blended forecasts have been pretty consistent with heat index values in the 100-105 range and the Heat Advisory represents this well.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
While temperatures are forecast to drop back several degrees late this week with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, they are likely to still be above normal for the remainder of the week. Southern areas can expect to see several more days with heat index values exceeding 90 degrees as the summer heat continues.

The long term portion of the forecast will trend more active as the ridge flattens across the Great Lakes Region with the storm track settling closer to the local area. Long range models show a frontal boundary settling south towards Lake Erie on Tuesday night that could potentially push south of the lake on Wednesday and kick off showers and thunderstorms. The atmosphere may still be weakly capped so kept pops at chance levels for Wednesday and Thursday but may need to adjust based on timing and placement of the boundary. This boundary looks like it tries to lift back north as a warm front on Friday but a stronger shortwave crosses the Upper Great Lakes heading into next weekend, with it moving back south. This will result in a return to an active weather pattern.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/
The warm front has mostly lifted northeast of the region and will clear the KERI area by mid afternoon. Expect the showers and thunderstorms over southern Ontario province to miss the region and slide into western New York later this afternoon and evening. This will leave all TAF sites dry and VFR the rest of this afternoon through Sunday as a strong dome of high pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere builds overhead.
Remnant mid and high clouds over NE Ohio and NW PA will exit by this evening allowing for clear skies tonight, with just FEW to SCT cumulus expected Sunday.

S to SW winds of 10-15 knots will gust to 20-25 knots at times this afternoon before decreasing to 5-15 knots tonight. S to SW winds will start to gust to 20-25 knots again by late Sunday morning, especially near KERI and the adjacent lakeshore.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Wednesday on with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Quiet marine conditions are expected through early next week as a strong mid/upper ridge of high pressure centers over the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes tonight through Tuesday. This will bring SSW winds of 10-15 knots this evening and tonight, with SW winds decreasing slightly to 5-15 knots Sunday through Monday and 5-10 knots Tuesday. A cold front will gradually sink south toward Lake Erie Tuesday night into Thursday but will likely become quasi- stationary over or just north of the lake. This will bring periodic showers and thunderstorms at times, but the greatest windows are uncertain. Wind directions will be variable with the front nearby, but speeds will remain in the 5-15 knot range.

CLIMATE
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie

06-22 99(1988) 95(1988) 98(1988) 97(1988) 97(1933) 94(1988)
06-23 96(1911) 91(1964) 94(1948) 94(1923) 94(1943) 92(1964)
06-24 95(2005) 93(1933) 96(1952) 95(1923) 93(1952) 92(1952)
06-25 104(1988) 101(1988) 104(1988) 100(1988) 99(1988) 100(1988)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for OHZ003- 006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.