Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Michigan City, IN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 209 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Low pressure, currently over WI, will continue to track slowly east reaching northern Lk Huron by 18Z Tue. A quasi stationary boundary has been responsible for showers and even a few storms, but so far these have remained well north of our area. A cold front trails the low into eastern IA. This will be our focus over the next 24 to 36 hours as it shifts slowly east and eventually stalls out as it becomes parallel to the flow. We will remain entrenched in the warm sector of the system with one more day of well above normal temperatures as highs climb into the 80s. Bit of mid/high level cloud cover may limit overall warming and keep temps from getting too out of hand. That being said, records at FWA (84 in 1975 and 1899) and SBN (86 set in 1975) could be in jeopardy.

Increasing moisture begins to arrive west of the area along the cold front with another weak wave taking shape across IL/IA and then drifting east along the stalling front. Strong to locally severe storms will develop where the greatest shear and instability exists late afternoon into the evening hours. This activity should drift east and impact the area sometime overnight into early Wednesday, with the RAP/HRRR faster (near/after 6Z) and NAM closer to 12Z. Have limited pops to likely and during the overnight hours before a slow downward trend in coverage and intensity is likely (unless the NAM works out). Showalters indicate a plume of elevated instability, but limited lapse rates and shear which should keep thunder chances on the lower side. Precip chances should decrease during the afternoon and into Wed evening as the front washes out and wave moves away.

Focus then shifts to the larger trough which will reside across the SW US. Models seem to have finally come into some agreement on phasing of northern and southern stream waves and eventual cyclogenesis with the sfc low tracking near/northwest of the area.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase again Thurs afternoon into Thurs evening before dry slow works in late Thursday night. A breezy day will be in store Friday as NW winds wrap around the low and usher in colder air for Fri and Sat.

Any cold air should be brief as pattern begins to deamplify into next week with a return to near or possibly above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1213 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Primary VFR through the period. Elevated showers have settled south of KFWA with dry conditions this afternoon into much of the evening at each terminal. A frontal boundary will drop south into northern IN overnight into Wednesday morning with scattered showers and a few storms possible, best chances at KSBN where brief cig/vis restrictions will be possible.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.