Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bourne, MA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Key Messages:

* Mainly clear with diminishing wind and low temps in the 30s

Upper level ridging builds in from the west tonight as surface high pres builds to the north. Very dry air and subsidence will lead to mainly clear skies although some high clouds will move in from the west. Gusty winds this afternoon will diminish this evening and become light to calm overnight. This will result in good radiational cooling and a chilly night with lows dropping into the low-mid 30s, with some upper 20s possible in the colder spots in NW MA.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Key Messages:

* Dry and mild Monday with sea-breezes developing * Scattered showers developing Mon night

Monday...

Upper level ridge axis will be over New Eng as high pres shifts SE of New Eng during the afternoon. Sunshine will give way to increasing high clouds in the afternoon. 850 mb warm front moves through with rapid increase in 850 mb dewpoints and increasing PWATs in the afternoon. However, expect dry weather to persist through the day as soundings show enough low level dry air that will need to be overcome. Highs will reach low-mid 60s inland, but hold in the 50s near the coast as cooling sea-breezes develop.

Monday night...

The high pres moves further offshore with weak cold front approaching from the west. A modest pre-frontal low level jet will lead to good moisture transport as PWATs increase over 1 inch. This combined with marginal elevated instability will result in scattered showers sweeping through the region from W to E during the late evening and overnight. Lows will range through the 40s with modest southerly breezes.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key Messages:

* Showers linger into Tuesday morning.

* Mainly dry Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures slightly above normal.

* Pattern becomes more unsettled Friday through the weekend with periodic chances for precipitation.

Tuesday through Thursday:

Showers linger through the morning Tuesday as a cold front pushes across the CWA Weak warm advection ahead of the front will bring 850mb temperatures in the 8-10C range Tuesday. This will support above normal temperatures in the 60s and low 70s with the exception of the Cape/Islands in the 50s.

Temps will quickly begin to cool off Tuesday evening as a colder and drier airmass moves into place post-FROPA. Wednesday's high temps will be slightly cooler than Tuesday's, but still above average...
high 60s for most areas, with a small chance (< 20 percent) some urban areas could hit 70F.

Broad high pressure begins to build over the southeastern waters for Thursday, bringing another day of clear skies and dry weather. High temps for the interior likely range from high 60s to low 70s while the immediate coast, Cape, and Islands likely remain in the high 50s to low 60s.

Friday through the Weekend:

Ensemble guidance indicates a transition to a more unsettled pattern sometime Friday afternoon or evening into Saturday morning with potential for periodic chances for precipitation throughout the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z Update...

Tonight and Monday...High Confidence.

VFR. Diminishing NW wind becoming light to calm overnight. Sea- breezes developing along the coast 13-15z, otherwise wind becoming S 10-15 kt in the afternoon.

Monday night...High confidence in trends.

VFR in the evening, lowering to MVFR-IFR from W to E after 05z.
Scattered showers developing.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday through Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Monday...High Confidence.

Small Craft Advisory conditions across most eastern waters, as well as across the southern outer coastal waters. Winds diminish late today, but seas will take a little longer to subside below 5 feet. Adjusted the end timing accordingly.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

FIRE WEATHER
Special Weather Statement for elevated fire weather concerns issued for southern New England. A drier air mass filters into our region behind a cold front. Gusty northwest winds with gusts up to 35 mph, combined with low relative humidities between 15 and 30 percent could result in fast spread of any fires.
Exercise caution handling any potential ignition sources.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230- 256.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231- 250-251-254-255.