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Marine Weather and Tides Ocean Grove, MA Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:06AM

Sunset 4:45PM

Sunday January 19, 2020 6:24 AM EST (11:24 UTC)

Moonrise 3:05AM

Moonset 1:33PM

Illumination 32%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Grove, MA

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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 190936 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 436 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

SYNOPSIS. Secondary area of low pressure in the Gulf of Maine will continue to pull away from New England today. High pressure building in from the west will result in dry, but cold weather tonight into Wednesday morning. This high will push south of the region by Thursday and Friday with continued dry conditions, but bringing above normal temperatures. We will then need to watch a potential coastal storm which may impact the region sometime next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

Accumulating snow has now ended across Southern New England, with a secondary cyclone now forming in the Gulf of Maine. Unfortunately, a dry slot which moved through overnight has sapped the snow growth layer of moisture needed for snow growth. With temperatures still stubbonly below the freezing mark across a large part of our area (excluding Cape Cod, the Islands and the South Coast), this morning there remains a large area of freezing liquid: ranging from either very light freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and freezing mist/freezing fog. It seems likely that temperatures in the interior will be slow to warm, at least not for the next few hours.

Because of that, I've made some changes to headlines. First was to convert the Winter Storm Warning to a Winter Weather Advisory until 12z Sunday. In addition, the existing Advisory area has been extended in time until 12z Sunday. It's not exactly a cut-and-dried decision, but this conversion essentially conveys a changing threat from accumulating heavy snow having now ended to one of light accretions of ice/fog droplets (or both). Impact from this icing is minor, and would be mainly in areas where earlier snow-covered pavement has been exposed bare, on sidewalks and in coatings on trees and powerlines. But I certainly couldn't justify cancelling, with with overnight icing ongoing. ASOS ice reports are a trace to a few hundreths of an inch, and an additional trace icing to a couple hundreths more still possible in the Advisory area. Light rain or drizzle is prevalent across the Cape with no impacts expected.

Temperatures are expected to slowly warm above freezing once the shallow inversion mixes out, and W/WNW winds will help disperse fog layers and also produce warmer downsloping conditions. By the afternoon, clearing skies will have helped temperatures warming to highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. With cyclonic flow aloft, shot of colder air on WNW flow will then introduce both falling temperatures later today and increasingly blustery winds (25-30 mph gusts, highest on the Cape).

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. Tonight:

Main story for tonight is the return of much colder air that filters in on NW flow (850 mb temps plummet to the negative teens Celsius), along with continued northwest winds. Sided a little bit warmer on the lows with the idea that the winds will keep temperatures from falling really sharply even though we're otherwise in a good radiational cooling setup. Showed range of lows low- teens to the mid 20s. Wind chills in the single digits below zero to the single digits above.

One feature that we will have to watch for overnight is a secondary 500 mb trough rippling through the longwave cyclonic flow. Model guidance continues to show some interaction with an inverted trough associated with the distant secondary low pressure in the Maritimes to foster a period of snow showers across parts of Cape Cod and Nantucket. QPF isn't substantial - a few hundreths at most - but cold profiles and ocean-effect instability could produce an inch or so of new snow late tonight of across a good part of the Cape and into Nantucket.

Monday:

Continued quite chilly with the low-level thermal trough overhead and blustery NW winds still prevailing, though speeds and gusts should be less than today. Ocean-effect snow showers may continue to brush the Cape through midday, though the threat should be ending by afternoon as the inverted trough pulls away. Full sun but heating offset by weakening cold advection supports highs only the upper teens to the mid/upper 20s. Wind chills by daybreak still at or below zero in NW MA but expected to warm gradually in lockstep with slowly warming temps.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Highlights .

* Dry and cold Mon night and Tue

* Temps moderate Wed and esp Thu/Fri with dry weather persisting

* Coastal storm possible next weekend with rain favored, but can not rule out some snow/ice especially across the interior

Details .

Monday night and Tuesday .

Upper trough over the northeast will keep temperatures cold, but a ridge of high pressure at the surface will result in dry weather. Lows Mon night will bottom out in the teens with some single digits possible across portions of western/central MA. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the upper 20s to near 30 in most locations.

Wednesday .

After a cold start early Wednesday morning, temperatures will begin to moderate. This in response to the upper level trough pulling away from the region, allowing for rising height fields to commence. This should be enough to allow afternoon highs to reach well into the 30s in many locations. High pressure overhead will result in rather light winds and plenty of sunshine too.

Thursday and Friday .

Some upper level ridging builds into southern New England. This will bring a return to above normal temperatures Thu and Fri. A ridge of high pressure at the surface will also keep our weather dry. High should reach well into the 40s in many locations. It also is not out of the question that a few locales break 50 by Fri.

Next Weekend .

There are signs in the long range guidance/ensembles of a potential coastal storm. Timing/track of course is uncertain in this time range, but if it comes to fruition might end up being slow moving with some blocking to the north. As for ptype, still uncertain given this is a day 6-7 forecast. That being said, cold air will be lacking across much of the country given deep trough over Alaska. This would favor rain at least along the coastal plain. However, there is high pressure system across eastern Canada. Depending on its position/strength, this may provide just enough cold air for some snow/ice with the best chance across the interior. Not much more to say at this point, but will have to see how things trend over the next few days.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

09z TAF Update:

Through 12z Sun: Moderate to high confidence.

Generally IFR, improving towards more MVFR-IFR by daybreak. FZRA/FZDZ with freezing mist/fog continues to be a concern across many TAF sites in the interior where temperatures remain below freezing. Light glaze/minor icing possible on exposed pavement (runways) but limited to little impact. Temperatures should warm enough to permit less freezing rain/drizzle coverage by 12z Sun.

E-SE winds 3-7 kt in the interior will become S/SW 4-8 kt in the interior. Stronger S winds towards ACK and the Cape terminals, with 10-15 kt winds and gusts to 30 kt.

Today: High confidence.

FZRA/FZDZ should be ending by 12z Sunday, with flight categories generally improving from IFR-MVFR to closer to VFR thru mid- morning. VFR anticipated areawide by afternoon. Winds will shift to W/NW by aftn and become gusty (~20-25 kt, near 30 kt on the Cape).

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR. Low prob MVFR ceilings and visibility across the outer Cape and Nantucket, mainly after 20/05Z. NW winds decreasing to 10 kt (gusts 18-20 kt) in the interior, with 10-15 kt gusts to 20-25 kt on the Cape and Nantucket.

Monday: High confidence.

VFR. NW winds 6-10 kt in the interior, 10-12 kt with early gusts to 20-25 kt out on the Cape.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF/trends, lower on timing. Light snow ending next hr or so, mixing with RA/DZ.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF/trends, lower on timing. Mainly -FZRA/-FZDZ at least thru 09z, but may linger into the Sunday AM push.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/ .

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday through Thursday: VFR.

MARINE. SCAs continue on all waters with NW winds increasing by this morning and colder air moves over the waters. Winds and seas may still support continued SCA conditions on most offshore waters through Monday morning. Potential for the SCAs to need to be extended further into Monday but wasn't confident on this as yet to consider that extension.

Light freezing spray will be possible tonight with the colder air across the waters. Into late tonight and Monday, snow showers may affect Cape Cod Bay, Nantucket Sound and the waters east of Cape Cod.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/ .

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for CTZ002>004. MA . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MAZ002>019-026. RI . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for RIZ001>004. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ231>235-237- 250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ230-236.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/Loconto NEAR TERM . Loconto SHORT TERM . Loconto LONG TERM . Frank AVIATION . Frank/Loconto MARINE . Frank/Loconto

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI	3 mi	54 min		37°F	38°F		1002.7 hPa
PVDR1	5 mi	54 min		37°F			1003 hPa	35°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA	7 mi	54 min		39°F			1002.7 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI	7 mi	54 min		35°F	37°F		1002.8 hPa
FRXM3	7 mi	60 min		38°F				37°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI	7 mi	99 min	W 6	37°F			1003 hPa	37°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI	7 mi	54 min		37°F			1003.3 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA	8 mi	54 min					1002.9 hPa
PRUR1	9 mi	54 min		38°F				37°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI	12 mi	60 min		38°F	40°F		1003.1 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI	16 mi	54 min		38°F	35°F		1003.1 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA	28 mi	84 min	W 22 G 25	40°F			1003.6 hPa (-1.2)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA	37 mi	54 min					1003.4 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA	43 mi	99 min	SW 2.9	40°F			1003 hPa	39°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA	45 mi	54 min		24°F	39°F		1001.7 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT	49 mi	54 min		37°F	43°F		1003.5 hPa

Wind History for Conimicut Light, RI

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Last 24hr

NW9 G13

NW7

NW3 G7

N3

SW2

SE3

S4

SE4 G8

S9

SW9 G12

SE9

SE9

E9

NE4

S18

S18

SE10

NW7 G10

NW3 G9

NW4

NW4

SW10 G13

SW6

SW8

1 day ago

NW29

NW32

NW34 G41

NW29

NW26

NW29 G37

NW25

NW21 G27

NW20

NW20 G26

NW22

NW19 G26

NW26

N22

NW19 G25

NW16 G22

NW18 G23

N12 G18

NW14 G17

N10 G14

NW11 G14

NW10 G14

N9 G13

NW11

2 days ago

SE10

S15

S12

W24 G32

W28

W35

W31 G41

W41

NW30 G37

NW26 G34

NW28

NW34

NW25 G34

NW24 G29

NW20 G28

NW18 G22

NW19 G24

NW24 G31

NW35

NW31 G39

NW34

NW32

NW35

NW32

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI	7 mi	33 min	WSW 6	10.00 mi	Overcast	36°F	34°F	93%	1002.7 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI	13 mi	28 min	W 5	10.00 mi	Overcast	34°F	33°F	97%	997.1 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA	18 mi	31 min	SW 7	10.00 mi	Overcast	37°F	35°F	93%	1002.5 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA	18 mi	32 min	WSW 3	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	35°F	33°F	93%	1002.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPVD

Wind History from PVD (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

NW6

NW4

NW4

N4

Calm

Calm

SE6

S5

S5

S9

S5

Calm

E5

NE4

Calm

Calm

Calm

N3

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SW6

1 day ago

N18 G30

N13 G26

N21 G29

N21 G26

NW19 G26

NW19 G25

NW14 G24

N18 G24

NW16 G24

NW15 G21

NW13 G20

NW13 G20

N13

N12

NW11

NW10

N11

NW5

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NW5

2 days ago

S3

S8

S8

W19 G25

W15 G28

NW23 G33

NW22 G34

NW15 G34

NW22 G33

NW18 G32

NW20 G30

NW18 G26

N17 G25

N12 G21

NW9 G16

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N18 G29

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Tide / Current Tables for Warren, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island

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Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (6,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA

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