Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Grove, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:21PM Sunday July 12, 2020 7:40 PM EDT (23:40 UTC) Moonrise 12:15AMMoonset 12:41PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 716 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 4 to 5 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 4 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Gusty southwest winds diminish, but southern waters will continue with marine headlines through Monday evening. A front moves across the waters mid to late afternoon Monday, producing scattered showers and storms. The greatest threat with these storms are lightning and gusty winds. Tuesday will feature less in the way of precipitation, but a cold pool aloft will aid in the formation of pop-up Thundershowers. Mid- week high pressure followed by a front on Thursday night into Friday with the next chance for rain. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Grove, MA
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location: 41.74, -71.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 122257 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 657 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure southeast of Southern New England will give way to a slow-moving frontal system on Monday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon along a cold front. A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe, with localized damaging winds and torrential rains. Clearing with cooler and drier conditions for Monday night. Upper low pressure brings more unsettled weather Tuesday, but high pressure then brings fair weather for Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms return on Friday through Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/.

7 PM Update .

Evening radar showed a few isolated showers between Pittsfield and Worcester. These were diurnally driven and should dissipate with sunset. Diurnally-driven clouds over the interior will also dissipate, and high clouds over Cape Cod and Nantucket will move out to sea to the northeast.

This leads to a period of fair skies early tonight. Satellite imagery shows a broad area of clouds moving northeast from Eastern PA. These clouds trend into the CT Valley 10-11 PM, Central Hills 1-2 AM, and the Coastal Plain 3-4 AM. Showers/thunderstorms associated with these clouds will move in shortly after. So continue to expect convection during the overnight, similar to the earlier forecast.

Aside from adjustments to evening convection in the Berkshires, no significant changes to the forecast.

Previous discussion .

For tonight, look for diurnally driven shallow cumulus to dissipate with decreasing WSW winds. This should lead to generally tranquil conditions for most of the overnight. However the focus for late- overnight into the pre-dawn hours is the current cluster of scattered showers and thunderstorms over western PA and adjacent northern MD/northern WV. These showers and storms are associated with a weak lead shortwave disturbance moving into the west-central Appalachians. NAM/GFS brings these showers into western CT/MA toward daybreak and will show an increase in PoPs toward solid Chance levels from 09-12z. Expected rains don't appear substantial in and of themselves. But these rains could pre-condition things for a greater rain event Monday. Another muggy night in store with lows in the 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Monday:

* Scattered Strong/Severe Storms with strong wind gusts possible * * Torrential downpours could produce localized flash flooding *

Despite some uncertainties to be described below, Monday looks like an active day weatherwise. In a nutshell, early-day showers/possible rumbles of thunder give way to scattered strong to locally severe storms by afternoon into early evening. Given signals for a slow- moving frontal boundary and backbuilding/training t-storms along it, localized hydro/flash flooding problems may also ensue. Enhanced wording for heavy rains and gusty thunderstorm winds have been included in the forecast.

Big-picture overview: an initial positively-tilted weak shortwave trough in the mid-levels over the central Appalachians moves toward the mid-Atlantic and Southern New England coastal waters through the Monday morning hours. A SW-NE oriented cold frontal boundary will sag slowly southward from interior western New England. A more prominent, stronger 500 mb shortwave trough digs out of eastern Ontario by the afternoon. And it's in the afternoon when a severe/hydro threat should start to evolve and escalate, as improving wind fields leading to bulk shear values rising to 35-40 kt, moderate convective instability and forcing with the stronger upper disturbance should result in scattered to numerous showers and storms along the frontal boundary. This is indicated by the majority of the convective-allowing model members comprising the HREF. While individual models vary on the timing, it appears that thunderstorms may start to percolate as soon as 1 PM, but the better chances lie after 2-3 PM, with greater numbers of storms then progressing eastward towards the coast into the evening rush hour.

The largest uncertainties to the forecast hinge on the location of the frontal zone, how quickly it progresses eastward, and while early-day rains don't look to be as widespread as the GFS paints it to be, the extent to which the airmass can destabilize in the wake of the early showers is a question mark. Exactly where the SW-NE oriented front sets up is uncertain, but it appears to align itself somewhere from I-84 to I-495/I-93 corridor or just west of that line. In some of the NAM-based guidance, a weak low/mesolow ripples along the front as storms begin to fire. If that materializes it would serve to slow the front down further, but also back surface to low-level winds slightly leading to somewhat longer lower-level hodographs.

See the recently-added Hydro section to address the rainfall/flash flooding potential. After collaboration, WPC has raised the Day-2 Excessive Rain Outlook to Slight Risk for a good part of Southern New England mainly along and NW of I-95. Especially for the urban areas, a short-fused Flash Flood Watch may need to be considered pending trends and how much rain falls before the afternoon storms.

On the severe-storm potential, much of Southern New England is highlighted in a Marginal Risk for severe. Mid-level lapse rates look fairly weak and is a limitation. Progged CAPEs are on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg, with bulk shear around 35-40 kt. SPC's SREF Craven-Brooks severe index parameter highlighting solid probabilities for values at or over 10,000 units, which can favor strong/severe storms. The 12z HREF continues to show some 2-5 km Updraft Helicity swaths as well, though mainly across central and eastern MA. Though the primary severe threat would be from strong to locally damaging straight line winds, if a weak surface wave low can lead to locally backed surface winds it could yield a very low-prob tornado risk but the threat is conditioned upon that occurring. The NAM-3 km hints at this more than other models with 0-1 km shear of 20 kt/0-1 km SRH 100-150 units in parts of the interior.

Monday should offer a break of sorts from the heat with more clouds than sun, but it will still feel rather humid. Kept highs in the upper 70s to the mid 80s.

Monday Night:

Frontal zone and weak surface low along it then advance off the coast into Monday night. While a few storms in eastern MA and northern RI may still be on the stronger side, expecting by mid- evening that most areas are dry. Cooler and somewhat lowered humidity levels are then anticipated in the post-frontal air mass for Monday night. Though W/NW winds may mitigate this to an extent, cooling PBL could lead to a larger coverage of fog in the interior, though best chances for lower clouds/fog is along the southern coastal waters and the Cape/South Coast. Shown lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s across interior MA/CT, and the mid to upper 60s across eastern MA and much of RI.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Big Picture .

Closed upper low moves over New England Tuesday, with -12C to -14C cold core at 500-mb. The upper low moves off to the east Tuesday night, followed by a shortwave upper ridge over New England Wednesday and or Thursday. Zonal flow over the Nrn Tier of the USA Thursday through the weekend.

Mid-July normals for 500-mb contours are around 580 Dm. Forecast values are in the mid 570s during the upper low passage Tuesday, then quickly climb to 588-590 Dm Thursday through the weekend. Shallow surface east winds may undercut the deep warmth midweek, but as winds become southwest late week and weekend that should bring back above-normal temperatures.

Model mass fields are similar through Thursday. The previous differences regarding the closed upper low on Tuesday have resolved in favor of the more progressive GFS and GGEM solutions. On Friday and the weekend differences arise due to the usual effects of shortwaves moving through a zonal flow. Confidence is moderate-high through Thursday, then low-moderate over the weekend.

Daily details .

Tuesday-Wednesday .

Closed upper low and its cold pool will move overhead. Model CAPE reaches 1000-1500 J/Kg and LI -5 to -7, centered over E/C Mass and RI. The cold pool and diurnal heating will generate sufficient instability to create some diurnal showers/thunderstorms Tuesday.

Some lingering uncertainty Wednesday. The upper low moves off, but its western edge lingers near the coast and could cause isolated showers along the eastern MA coast. These should quickly move offshore by afternoon.

Temps aloft support Tuesday inland max temps in the low to mid 80s, cooler along the shore. Wednesday max temps are 2C lower, so inland max temps around 80 . and an easterly wind will keep eastern MA and RI in the 70s.

Thursday through Sunday .

High pressure centered along the coast will favor another dry day on Thursday. A shortwave approaches Thursday night and Friday, although zonal flow carries an inherent uncertainty about timing the shortwave. Other shortwaves arrive either Saturday or Sunday, so both of these days will show low-end chance pops for showers/thunder. Mixing supports inland temps around 80 Thursday/Friday and coastals in the 70s, trending to 90 or the low 90s by Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: High confidence.

Generally VFR for most of the night (chance for IFR mist/fog at ACK). After 06z Monday, showers/storms currently over eastern/central PA move in a weakened state into BAF/BDL and perhaps moving into the ORH/PVD corridor. Indicated 6SM -SHRA to highlight this. Possible brief MVFR vsby, rumble of thunder not out of the question but more the exception vs the rule. SW winds to become SSW 5-10 kt.

Monday: Moderate confidence.

While VFR most of the time, it does look like Monday will be fairly active, especially after 18z. Early-day VFR/brief MVFR visby showers move ENE thru 16z. Thereafter, re-developing scattered to potential numerous showers/storms along a slowing frontal zone. Any storm may become strong with strong wind gusts and torrential rain that could substantially lower ceilings/visbys for a brief time. Less certain on timing and locations but feel most of the TAFs except Cape and Islands could see TSRA in the 18-00z timeframe, moving slowly E. S to SW winds 4-8 kt, become W late in the day western airports.

Monday Night: Moderate confidence.

Ongoing afternoon TSRA to diminish as they near the coastal waters. Generally VFR as surface low moves offshore, though possible MVFR-LIFR stratus/fog South Coast/Cape. May also have to watch for fog in the interior but less confidence here. W winds become NW/N after midnight around 4-8 kt.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/ .

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Patchy BR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, patchy BR.

Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

MARINE.

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters.

The High Surf Advisory for Sunday will conclude between 7 and 8 PM, but a new Advisory will then be issued for the Islands for Monday from 6 AM to 8 PM. Main concern will the the south- facing beaches due to the rip current risk and breaking 4-6 ft waves in the surf zone.

Southwest wind gusts are diminishing, but long period swell between 4-6 ft will continue on the southern waters until at least late Monday afternoon. Seas then lower into Monday night with modest northwest winds/gusts.

Lower clouds and fog may again develop on the southern waters tonight. Scattered thunderstorms may become strong Monday afternoon into early evening.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/ .

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

HYDROLOGY. 405 PM Update:

We are looking at a couple of rounds of rain through Monday. The first would amount to light to moderate showers moving in overnight tonight into the first part of Monday. The second round comes in Monday afternoon into early night associated with scattered to numerous thunderstorms along a slowing cold front.

Though some areas have received some rains of late, our area remains abnormally dry. This is reflected by high 1-hourly flash flood guidance which is anywhere from 2 to 2.75" of rain. However, PWAT values remain elevated at values ranging from 1.75-2 inches and support locally heavy downpours. High- res guidance blossoms scattered to numerous thunderstorms along a SW- NE oriented cold front. Signals of thunderstorms backbuilding on the frontal zone and training over the same areas as storms move eastward, could yield torrential rains in a short period of time. HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1" rains in 3-hours are very high at 70-80% from Windsor Locks to Fitchburg eastward to the Boston-Providence/I-95 corridor, with lower probs of 3" rains in 3-hours. If heavier rains fall over a typically vulnerable area, such as the larger cities where rain can go readily to runoff, a localized flash flood threat could materialize.

Antecedent conditions and uncertainties in QPF and placement on the front precludes a Flash Flood Watch at this time. However it may need to be considered in later updates near or east of the frontal boundary, especially as storms are expected to coincide around or with the Monday PM rush hour.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020- 022>024. RI . High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>234-251. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237- 254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ250.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Loconto NEAR TERM . WTB/Loconto SHORT TERM . Loconto LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . WTB/Loconto MARINE . WTB/Loconto HYDROLOGY .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi52 min 83°F 80°F1005.2 hPa
PVDR1 5 mi52 min WSW 11 G 13 85°F 1005.2 hPa68°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 7 mi52 min SSW 15 G 19 82°F 1005.1 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 7 mi52 min W 9.9 G 15 86°F 76°F1005.1 hPa
FRXM3 7 mi52 min 83°F 67°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi115 min WSW 8.9 84°F 1005 hPa69°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi52 min WSW 4.1 G 8 80°F 1005.9 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 8 mi52 min 84°F 77°F1005.6 hPa
PRUR1 9 mi52 min 76°F 71°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 12 mi52 min SSW 12 G 14 80°F 76°F1005.4 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 16 mi52 min SSW 11 G 14 74°F 68°F1005.7 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 28 mi40 min SW 21 G 23 1006.5 hPa (+0.0)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi52 min 74°F 73°F1005.9 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 43 mi115 min S 5.1 75°F 1006 hPa69°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi58 min 87°F 66°F1002.8 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 49 mi52 min SW 7 G 13 83°F 71°F1005.4 hPa

Wind History for Conimicut Light, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI7 mi49 minSW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds85°F66°F55%1004.9 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI11 mi1.8 hrsWSW 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F66°F52%1004.7 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI13 mi44 minVar 610.00 miFair81°F70°F69%999.9 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI14 mi47 minSSW 810.00 miFair78°F66°F69%1005.3 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA18 mi47 minSW 12 G 1910.00 miA Few Clouds80°F68°F67%1004.9 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA18 mi48 minSSW 810.00 miFair84°F68°F59%1004.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPVD

Wind History from PVD (wind in knots)
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2 days agoSW9SW5S3S4S5CalmS3S6S3CalmE3E4E6E6E6E8SE10S11SE13
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Tide / Current Tables for Warren, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Warren
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:52 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:49 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:27 PM EDT     4.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:26 PM EDT     1.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.94.13.72.71.710.91.11.41.92.43.23.94.34.33.62.61.81.41.41.61.82.2

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:24 AM EDT     1.84 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:56 AM EDT     -2.27 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:47 PM EDT     2.06 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:03 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:26 PM EDT     -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:31 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:47 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.70.8-0.7-1.9-2.3-1.9-1.3-0.600.71.31.921.40.1-1.4-2.2-2.2-1.7-1.1-0.50.10.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.