Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Grove, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:45PM Sunday January 19, 2020 6:24 AM EST (11:24 UTC) Moonrise 3:05AMMoonset 1:33PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 411 Am Est Sun Jan 19 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue and Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed and Wed night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft.
Thu and Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 411 Am Est Sun Jan 19 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres across northern new england will move east into the canadian maritimes today. A cold front will then cross the waters late this afternoon and evening. Large high pres will then build in from the west and remain in the vicinity of the waters for most of the work week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Grove, MA
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location: 41.74, -71.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 190936 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 436 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

SYNOPSIS. Secondary area of low pressure in the Gulf of Maine will continue to pull away from New England today. High pressure building in from the west will result in dry, but cold weather tonight into Wednesday morning. This high will push south of the region by Thursday and Friday with continued dry conditions, but bringing above normal temperatures. We will then need to watch a potential coastal storm which may impact the region sometime next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

Accumulating snow has now ended across Southern New England, with a secondary cyclone now forming in the Gulf of Maine. Unfortunately, a dry slot which moved through overnight has sapped the snow growth layer of moisture needed for snow growth. With temperatures still stubbonly below the freezing mark across a large part of our area (excluding Cape Cod, the Islands and the South Coast), this morning there remains a large area of freezing liquid: ranging from either very light freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and freezing mist/freezing fog. It seems likely that temperatures in the interior will be slow to warm, at least not for the next few hours.

Because of that, I've made some changes to headlines. First was to convert the Winter Storm Warning to a Winter Weather Advisory until 12z Sunday. In addition, the existing Advisory area has been extended in time until 12z Sunday. It's not exactly a cut-and-dried decision, but this conversion essentially conveys a changing threat from accumulating heavy snow having now ended to one of light accretions of ice/fog droplets (or both). Impact from this icing is minor, and would be mainly in areas where earlier snow-covered pavement has been exposed bare, on sidewalks and in coatings on trees and powerlines. But I certainly couldn't justify cancelling, with with overnight icing ongoing. ASOS ice reports are a trace to a few hundreths of an inch, and an additional trace icing to a couple hundreths more still possible in the Advisory area. Light rain or drizzle is prevalent across the Cape with no impacts expected.

Temperatures are expected to slowly warm above freezing once the shallow inversion mixes out, and W/WNW winds will help disperse fog layers and also produce warmer downsloping conditions. By the afternoon, clearing skies will have helped temperatures warming to highs in the mid 30s to low 40s. With cyclonic flow aloft, shot of colder air on WNW flow will then introduce both falling temperatures later today and increasingly blustery winds (25-30 mph gusts, highest on the Cape).

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. Tonight:

Main story for tonight is the return of much colder air that filters in on NW flow (850 mb temps plummet to the negative teens Celsius), along with continued northwest winds. Sided a little bit warmer on the lows with the idea that the winds will keep temperatures from falling really sharply even though we're otherwise in a good radiational cooling setup. Showed range of lows low- teens to the mid 20s. Wind chills in the single digits below zero to the single digits above.

One feature that we will have to watch for overnight is a secondary 500 mb trough rippling through the longwave cyclonic flow. Model guidance continues to show some interaction with an inverted trough associated with the distant secondary low pressure in the Maritimes to foster a period of snow showers across parts of Cape Cod and Nantucket. QPF isn't substantial - a few hundreths at most - but cold profiles and ocean-effect instability could produce an inch or so of new snow late tonight of across a good part of the Cape and into Nantucket.

Monday:

Continued quite chilly with the low-level thermal trough overhead and blustery NW winds still prevailing, though speeds and gusts should be less than today. Ocean-effect snow showers may continue to brush the Cape through midday, though the threat should be ending by afternoon as the inverted trough pulls away. Full sun but heating offset by weakening cold advection supports highs only the upper teens to the mid/upper 20s. Wind chills by daybreak still at or below zero in NW MA but expected to warm gradually in lockstep with slowly warming temps.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Highlights .

* Dry and cold Mon night and Tue

* Temps moderate Wed and esp Thu/Fri with dry weather persisting

* Coastal storm possible next weekend with rain favored, but can not rule out some snow/ice especially across the interior

Details .

Monday night and Tuesday .

Upper trough over the northeast will keep temperatures cold, but a ridge of high pressure at the surface will result in dry weather. Lows Mon night will bottom out in the teens with some single digits possible across portions of western/central MA. Highs on Tuesday will only be in the upper 20s to near 30 in most locations.

Wednesday .

After a cold start early Wednesday morning, temperatures will begin to moderate. This in response to the upper level trough pulling away from the region, allowing for rising height fields to commence. This should be enough to allow afternoon highs to reach well into the 30s in many locations. High pressure overhead will result in rather light winds and plenty of sunshine too.

Thursday and Friday .

Some upper level ridging builds into southern New England. This will bring a return to above normal temperatures Thu and Fri. A ridge of high pressure at the surface will also keep our weather dry. High should reach well into the 40s in many locations. It also is not out of the question that a few locales break 50 by Fri.

Next Weekend .

There are signs in the long range guidance/ensembles of a potential coastal storm. Timing/track of course is uncertain in this time range, but if it comes to fruition might end up being slow moving with some blocking to the north. As for ptype, still uncertain given this is a day 6-7 forecast. That being said, cold air will be lacking across much of the country given deep trough over Alaska. This would favor rain at least along the coastal plain. However, there is high pressure system across eastern Canada. Depending on its position/strength, this may provide just enough cold air for some snow/ice with the best chance across the interior. Not much more to say at this point, but will have to see how things trend over the next few days.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

09z TAF Update:

Through 12z Sun: Moderate to high confidence.

Generally IFR, improving towards more MVFR-IFR by daybreak. FZRA/FZDZ with freezing mist/fog continues to be a concern across many TAF sites in the interior where temperatures remain below freezing. Light glaze/minor icing possible on exposed pavement (runways) but limited to little impact. Temperatures should warm enough to permit less freezing rain/drizzle coverage by 12z Sun.

E-SE winds 3-7 kt in the interior will become S/SW 4-8 kt in the interior. Stronger S winds towards ACK and the Cape terminals, with 10-15 kt winds and gusts to 30 kt.

Today: High confidence.

FZRA/FZDZ should be ending by 12z Sunday, with flight categories generally improving from IFR-MVFR to closer to VFR thru mid- morning. VFR anticipated areawide by afternoon. Winds will shift to W/NW by aftn and become gusty (~20-25 kt, near 30 kt on the Cape).

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR. Low prob MVFR ceilings and visibility across the outer Cape and Nantucket, mainly after 20/05Z. NW winds decreasing to 10 kt (gusts 18-20 kt) in the interior, with 10-15 kt gusts to 20-25 kt on the Cape and Nantucket.

Monday: High confidence.

VFR. NW winds 6-10 kt in the interior, 10-12 kt with early gusts to 20-25 kt out on the Cape.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF/trends, lower on timing. Light snow ending next hr or so, mixing with RA/DZ.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF/trends, lower on timing. Mainly -FZRA/-FZDZ at least thru 09z, but may linger into the Sunday AM push.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/ .

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday through Thursday: VFR.

MARINE. SCAs continue on all waters with NW winds increasing by this morning and colder air moves over the waters. Winds and seas may still support continued SCA conditions on most offshore waters through Monday morning. Potential for the SCAs to need to be extended further into Monday but wasn't confident on this as yet to consider that extension.

Light freezing spray will be possible tonight with the colder air across the waters. Into late tonight and Monday, snow showers may affect Cape Cod Bay, Nantucket Sound and the waters east of Cape Cod.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/ .

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for CTZ002>004. MA . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MAZ002>019-026. RI . Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for RIZ001>004. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ231>235-237- 250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ230-236.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/Loconto NEAR TERM . Loconto SHORT TERM . Loconto LONG TERM . Frank AVIATION . Frank/Loconto MARINE . Frank/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi54 min 37°F 38°F1002.7 hPa
PVDR1 5 mi54 min 37°F 1003 hPa35°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 7 mi54 min 39°F 1002.7 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 7 mi54 min 35°F 37°F1002.8 hPa
FRXM3 7 mi60 min 38°F 37°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi99 min W 6 37°F 1003 hPa37°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi54 min 37°F 1003.3 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 8 mi54 min 1002.9 hPa
PRUR1 9 mi54 min 38°F 37°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 12 mi60 min 38°F 40°F1003.1 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 16 mi54 min 38°F 35°F1003.1 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 28 mi84 min W 22 G 25 40°F 1003.6 hPa (-1.2)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi54 min 1003.4 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 43 mi99 min SW 2.9 40°F 1003 hPa39°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi54 min 24°F 39°F1001.7 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 49 mi54 min 37°F 43°F1003.5 hPa

Wind History for Conimicut Light, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI7 mi33 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast36°F34°F93%1002.7 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI13 mi28 minW 510.00 miOvercast34°F33°F97%997.1 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA18 mi31 minSW 710.00 miOvercast37°F35°F93%1002.5 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA18 mi32 minWSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F33°F93%1002.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPVD

Wind History from PVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW4NW4N4CalmCalmSE6S5S5S9S5CalmE5NE4CalmCalmCalmN3----------SW6
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N13N12NW11NW10N11NW5----------NW5
2 days agoS3S8S8W19
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Tide / Current Tables for Warren, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Warren
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:08 AM EST     4.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:12 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:32 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:35 PM EST     4.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:05 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.43.54.554.63.62.31.10.50.20.30.71.32.33.3443.32.110.300.10.6

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:08 AM EST     2.11 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:24 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:52 AM EST     -2.47 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:05 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:32 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:41 PM EST     2.18 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:59 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:23 PM EST     -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:40 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.11.80.7-0.9-2.1-2.5-2.1-1.4-0.8-0.10.71.422.11.4-0-1.5-2.2-2.2-1.7-1.1-0.50.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.