Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kelleys Island, OH

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers with scattered thunderstorms will fill in late this afternoon into this evening with heavy rainfall possible across inland Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Training could lead to localized flooding in the southeast.

2) Memorial Day will be dry and warmer.

3) Warmer temperatures in the low 80s expected Tuesday and Wednesday with a trend towards normal for the remainder of the week.



DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A weak area of surface low pressure is located over eastern Indiana this afternoon and will move northeast across northern Ohio through the evening. This is ahead of a broad trough aloft that is lifting from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Central Great Lakes. An axis of high precipitable water values of around 1.75 inches extends into the Ohio Valley and will advect into Northeast Ohio this evening. Showers are moving northward out of Central Ohio and have raised pops for this evening, especially across central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Most unstable CAPE values are forecast to increase to 500-700 J/kg across southern portions of the area but instability will be limited due to abundant cloud cover and a nearly saturated column as shown by model sounding from CAK-YNG. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage after 4 PM with efficient rainfall rates.
The QPF forecast is generally for a half inch to an inch for inland areas east of I-77 but localized pockets of 2 inches or more are possible. This could result in rises on the Eagle Creek near Phalanx Station or the Killbuck Creek. Storm motion will be to the northeast at around 20 knots so some movement is expected but training is also possible. Following the heavy rainfall, patchy fog may develop overnight.

Another area of showers is located across Lower Michigan and Indiana associated with the forcing aloft. These are expected to move into NW Ohio but with a general decrease in coverage.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
After the trough passes to the north tonight, high pressure will build south into the area on Monday. Mostly cloudy skies to start the day will scatter out through the afternoon.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals with slightly cooler values downwind of Lake Erie with a north wind.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
An upper level ridge builds overhead Tuesday and Wednesday and temperatures climb into the lower 80s. Models have trended drier with moisture in the low levels on Wednesday. A trough is still expected to swing south across the eastern Great Lakes and could provide enough support for a few showers or thunderstorms.
A low pop remains near the Route 30 corridor.

Temperatures trend cooler behind the back door cold front for Thursday. Later in the week model spread increases with the 12Z GFS bringing a closed upper low into the eastern Great Lakes while the other long range models favor a ridge across the Great Lakes and a trough off the New England Coast. The 12Z operational run is deeper than the GFS ensemble but does indicate an opportunity to be influenced by some cooler air next weekend. ECMWF ensembles show nearly a 20 degree spread in high temperatures for CLE for next weekend so confidence is below normal at this time.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/
Primarily a mix of MVFR to VFR ceilings across terminals this afternoon with a few pocket of IFR to LIFR ceilings where steady rainfall is occurring. Expect more widespread reductions to MVFR/IFR as rainfall coverage increases. Did not have enough confidence to have any TS mention at any TAF site given that any embedded thunderstorm is likely to remain very isolated.

Expect for reductions to IFR to LIFR in both cigs and vis to continue through the overnight hours as high pressure builds overhead and leads to the development of areas of fog. Guidance remains pessimistic with a vast coverage of LIFR to IFR conditions across TAF sites. Expect for any fog/low ceilings that develop tonight to scatter out around 15Z/Mon.

Generally southeasterly to southerly winds 5-8 knots this afternoon will become light and variable tonight. Wind will shift and become northerly around daybreak Monday but remain at 10 knots or less under high pressure.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain showers on Wednesday.

MARINE
Quiet marine conditions expected through the remainder of the holiday weekend as high pressure builds across the region. Light and variable winds, under 10 knots, and waves of 1 foot or less are expected to persist through mid-week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.